ROFR Thread Oct - Dec 2016 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[mustinjourney]

Doubt it passes, they tend to buy anything less than $95 (based on my watching the OCC). That being said, I was surprised my parent's were able to get a semi-stripped VGF for $120.

Here is all the ROFR for the year, not sure stripped/banked are on each contract but gives you an idea (in anyone knows how to get that information it would be very illuminating). I also have the foreclosure prices that were > $100 if there is an interest. The one thing I need to do is put this in context of what passes. I didn't want to take the time to put every transaction in a spreadsheet. If I get the time I'll write a script with OCR tool to pull all the data from the filings but will take some time for me to figure it out.

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Can you chart that as a function of price vs. date? Looks like the ROFR price is trending downward -- but I can't tell for sure.

 

[mustinjourney]

Update: kristinlee1114---$106-$16460-150-BLT-Dec-0/15, 0/16, 150/17- sent 10/5, taken 10/15

wow -- surprised they took one with stripped points.

 

[squirrel4569]

Yup, taken today... 10/17. I think I'll just wait until next year otherwise there won't be any contracts left to buy. Disney clearly has a need for Dec BLT.

Don't give up! It took me the tries to get mine.

 

[pkhosla]

PASSED! 10/17/16 It was submitted at the end of the day on the Thursday so that was a pretty quick turnaround

Good luck !

 

[Gryhndmom]

Yup, taken today... 10/17. I think I'll just wait until next year otherwise there won't be any contracts left to buy. Disney clearly has a need for Dec BLT.

Double bummer for you ! We are dec UY owners and wonder what is making them take the December contracts.

 

[Bill Fenner]

Just got the word, we passed!

Bill Fenner---$75-$20700-250-SSR-Jun-0/15, 0/16, 250/17, 250/18- sent 10/12, passed 10/17

 

[PSUDinsey]

Psudisney---$85-$14745-160-AUL-Feb-0/15, 76/16, 160/17, 160/18-Seller pays 2016 MFs subsidized contract - sent 10/17

 

[marisabuzz]

Off topic...

Does anyone have a list of all the contracts that went for submission for ROFR? Or is there any 'easier' way of getting this info? I'm taking a data mining class and I'd like to analyze this data to make predictions on passing or failing ROFR.

 

[MouseOfCards]

scgustin---$65-$11550-170-VWL-Oct-0/15, 38/16, 170/17, 170/18- sent 10/14, passed 10/17

Disney waived ROFR in 1 business day! This was sent to Disney after 3 p.m. ET on Friday and passed at 1 p.m. on Monday. Also, I was certain $65/point at VWL would get taken by Disney. Pretty incredible.

Wow! Unbelievably quick. Congratulations!

 

[MouseOfCards]

Both BLT and VGF went from $170 to $180 this past February. (Because $170 isn't obscene enough, apparently.)

Whoa, VGC is also $180. Looks like $200 DVCs are just around the corner!

 

[sfromma]

Sfromma---$88-$14765-150-BWV-Jun-0/15, 150/16, 150/17, 150/18-Seller pays MF '16- sent 10/18

Our first ever contract accepted and submitted... Cautiously optimistic...

 

[han22735]

Sfromma---$88-$14765-150-BWV-Jun-0/15, 150/16, 150/17, 150/18-Seller pays MF '16- sent 10/18

Our first ever contract accepted and submitted... Cautiously optimistic...

Wow thats a great price. Fingers crossed you pass!!

 

[mustinjourney]

Off topic...

Does anyone have a list of all the contracts that went for submission for ROFR? Or is there any 'easier' way of getting this info? I'm taking a data mining class and I'd like to analyze this data to make predictions on passing or failing ROFR.

There is no way to get access to all of the data. Only Disney has access to all of it. Each DVC resale place has access to their data -- but not the other brokers (as far as I know). I suppose you could ask them for that data -- but my guess is they would give you a big fat NO!

The only way to get access to all of the contracts is to go to the OCC website and do a manual search of the contracts and then back calculate the contract value based on the document tax. From there you can figure out how much they paid per point. However, you have no idea how many points were available in any given use year, nor how much they paid in closing costs. So this data is not complete...and therefore, not all that helpful.

These ROFR threads are intended to provide all of that information. While incomplete -- they do provide some hints at what Disney might be looking for.

With that said, many have tried to figure out the golden formula for what prompts Disney to take a contract -- and quite frankly -- there does not appear to be a magical formula...at least it is not dependent solely on the pricing per point or points available.

I've seen identical contracts submitted within days of each other and one gets taken and the other goes through. For all we know, there could be a couple in the DVC sales office wanting to buy BCV and only BCV. Sales guide checks inventory and there's nothing -- then tells the manager and then the manager scopes out the ROFR batch and finds something that matches closely. Boom, takes it! Then sells it to the couple for a quick flip.*

With that said, based on what I've seen thus far, I've noticed the following "trends:"

• there seems to be a minimum of $60 spread between the direct sale price and the contract price;
• they seem to take focus on one or two resorts fairly heavily for a few weeks at a time;
• stripped contracts seem to make it through more often than loaded ones;
• it's possible they focus on different UYs throughout the year (i.e., right now they seem to be taking a lot of DEC UYs -- perhaps they think they can sell more of those during the holidays???).

*I'm not sure this scenario is possible though -- presumably they wouldn't be able to sell those points that fast -- I'm assuming it would take at least a couple days to close on the ROFR contract.

 

[JHank44]

Off topic...

Does anyone have a list of all the contracts that went for submission for ROFR? Or is there any 'easier' way of getting this info? I'm taking a data mining class and I'd like to analyze this data to make predictions on passing or failing ROFR.

You can pull all the deeds via the OCC: http://or.occompt.com/recorder/eagleweb/docSearch.jsp. I have been following BLT given my ownership and add-on interest there. I have most of the transactions for this year in a spreadsheet trying to do the same thing. The challenge is that you can't see how many points a contract has so it effectively gives you a band of pricing.

ROFR Thoughts:
1) Fair Value of contract is NPV Point Discount - Contract value can be modeled as NPV of the effective discount. I compare vs. renting so some model of $12-15 point rental income less MFs over the life of the contract = X assuming some discount rate.
2) Disney Point inventory for a given UY - It seems Disney sells certain months at different times. As an example, Mar and Dec BLT have been very popular direct so anything with that UY has recently been ROFR. Feb on the other hand, is going at a discount to other months.
3) Waitlist - If someone is on waitlist for given UY then it will most likely be taken (within reason) - this is more so true if it has banked points necessary to fill (i.e. until Dec 1, Dec contracts need to have 2015 points in order to sell prior to Dec 1). I noticed this in that some people were getting $170 a point on BLT this summer because they were on the waitlist prior to the price hike so Disney honored the original price (at least that is what my guide told me).
4) Seasonality of Demand - Disney seems to sell near UY more often. E.g. Feb/Mar in early part of year, Summer months in the middle etc. Buying a contract "out of season" will help on the margin. The caveat being that there can be a run on a certain month (e.g. Mar at BLT in August) so watch the OCC.

 

[MouseOfCards]

You can pull all the deeds via the OCC: http://or.occompt.com/recorder/eagleweb/docSearch.jsp. I have been following BLT given my ownership and add-on interest there. I have most of the transactions for this year in a spreadsheet trying to do the same thing. The challenge is that you can't see how many points a contract has so it effectively gives you a band of pricing.

ROFR Thoughts:
1) Fair Value of contract is NPV Point Discount - Contract value can be modeled as NPV of the effective discount. I compare vs. renting so some model of $12-15 point rental income less MFs over the life of the contract = X assuming some discount rate.
2) Disney Point inventory for a given UY - It seems Disney sells certain months at different times. As an example, Mar and Dec BLT have been very popular direct so anything with that UY has recently been ROFR. Feb on the other hand, is going at a discount to other months.
3) Waitlist - If someone is on waitlist for given UY then it will most likely be taken (within reason) - this is more so true if it has banked points necessary to fill (i.e. until Dec 1, Dec contracts need to have 2015 points in order to sell prior to Dec 1). I noticed this in that some people were getting $170 a point on BLT this summer because they were on the waitlist prior to the price hike so Disney honored the original price (at least that is what my guide told me).
4) Seasonality of Demand - Disney seems to sell near UY more often. E.g. Feb/Mar in early part of year, Summer months in the middle etc. Buying a contract "out of season" will help on the margin. The caveat being that there can be a run on a certain month (e.g. Mar at BLT in August) so watch the OCC.

Very interesting and perceptive!

 

[DisneyFansInLINY]

I keep seeing that so many people have heard back about their contracts within a week. We submitted ours Sept. 27 and haven't heard anything. I know that it usually takes a month but that seems to have changed recently. Does anyone else share in my frustration?

 

[marisabuzz]

There is no way to get access to all of the data. Only Disney has access to all of it. Each DVC resale place has access to their data -- but not the other brokers (as far as I know). I suppose you could ask them for that data -- but my guess is they would give you a big fat NO!

I was thinking even as simple as what's been posted on these forums. If anyone has this info, in whole or part, in a spreadsheet somewhere that would be a good start for me. I tried doing something like this last year when we put an offer in for resale, but quit it after we passed ROFR.

You can pull all the deeds via the OCC: http://or.occompt.com/recorder/eagleweb/docSearch.jsp. I have been following BLT given my ownership and add-on interest there. I have most of the transactions for this year in a spreadsheet trying to do the same thing. The challenge is that you can't see how many points a contract has so it effectively gives you a band of pricing.

Thanks, this helps a little, but points would be good to have. Also, this would be for any ones that have passed ROFR, right? To help with prediction, it would be good to have both passed and failed scenarios.

For a little context, I need a dataset so that I can apply a data mining algorithm like k Nearest, Bayes, AdaBoost, Decision Trees, etc. Personally, I want this info because we are likely going to purchase a second contract soon and it would be cool to evaluate the probability of passing ROFR. It would help me decide which contracts to look for or even what price per point to offer.

 

[JHank44]

I keep seeing that so many people have heard back about their contracts within a week. We submitted ours Sept. 27 and haven't heard anything. I know that it usually takes a month but that seems to have changed recently. Does anyone else share in my frustration?

The fact that it is taking so long is a good sign. If they don't have an immediate need for the contract, they will wait until the last possible minute to abandon or exercise their ROFR option (this makes sense if you understand option theory at all). You will only hear back right away if they are going to take it or the price was too high that they don't want it anyways (or perhaps they have so much inventory they don't care). Effectively, they don't want it right now but are waiting to see if someone comes in and wants something direct at which point they'll exercise. If nothing comes in, they will waive their option.

 

[JHank44]

Thanks, this helps a little, but points would be good to have. Also, this would be for any ones that have passed ROFR, right? To help with prediction, it would be good to have both passed and failed scenarios.

The OCC has ALL deeds - whether Disney is buying them back, 3rd party, etc.

For a little context, I need a dataset so that I can apply a data mining algorithm like k Nearest, Bayes, AdaBoost, Decision Trees, etc. Personally, I want this info because we are likely going to purchase a second contract soon and it would be cool to evaluate the probability of passing ROFR. It would help me decide which contracts to look for or even what price per point to offer.

I've done some analysis and it's not as scientific as you think. They will buy anything that is a "stupid" price but it seems inventory/demand matter much more. E.g., I bought Dec BLT $108 in May but had a Dec BLT $108 & $110 taken this last month. They were all very similar fair value adjusted for points so the unknown is the demand/inventory.

 

[johnsgrl]

I keep seeing that so many people have heard back about their contracts within a week. We submitted ours Sept. 27 and haven't heard anything. I know that it usually takes a month but that seems to have changed recently. Does anyone else share in my frustration?

I am right there with you, my contract was sent the day before yours and seeing all these posts with 7 day or less turn around is bitter-sweet. In my own mind I have told myself that they are holding out because it is a really good price, and they are not going to take it but want to make me suffer for the good price. I am hoping that if they were going to take it they would have done so sooner, but are sitting on it and will likely pass it. I have waited this long, another week or so won't kill me.