ROFR Thread July to Sept 2023 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[Ginamarie]

Speaking of getting back on track….

I passed!!! Finally getting my HHI points
I’ll post the official chain when I’m back at my computer but I am so excited we passed.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I made a model with some assumptions like dues would continue to increase at around 4% per year and that you can conservatively expect a yield of 7.5% on money you invest instead of spending on DVC. The one thing I didn't account for is potential increase of cost for renting points. I kept that stable at $20 pp. If that cost were to rise significantly that would throw off the model a bit. I'm fairly new to DVC, have rental rates risen predictably over time like dues?

Yes. But you’re doing the right math. They have increased significantly ahead of inflation for the last 5-6 years but seem to be near a ceiling as for many resorts renting barely provides a discount over rack anymore. But I paid $16 in 2019 and yet…

Good luck renting BCV for $20 pp,

David’s is $23 and that should IMO be the baseline. Future Increases at 3%.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Let’s get this thread back on track to ROFR. People can start other threads to discuss aspects of buying!!

Oh sorry

 

[E2ME2]

Speaking of getting back on track….

I passed!!! Finally getting my HHI points
I’ll post the official chain when I’m back at my computer but I am so excited we passed.

I’m happy for you!
I should email my title company to see if they’ve heard on mine……Congrats!!

 

[npatellye]

Speaking of getting back on track….

I passed!!! Finally getting my HHI points
I’ll post the official chain when I’m back at my computer but I am so excited we passed.

Congratulations!

 

[TheDailyMoo]

That being said, I do not think of DVC as financial investment. It’s a sunk cost that obligates me to pay dues every year for the right to go to properties that I love, but am too cheap to pay cash for. I am making a leap of faith that Disney will maintain the “magic” of the property and surrounding areas so that my loved ones and I will enjoy going for many years into the future.

I kinda feel like this sums up DVC in a nutshell

 

[intamin]

Her math wasn't fuzzy. It was inaccurate. Her comparison was against full rack rate, which nobody hardly ever pays. She also didn't account for annual dues. The episode reeked of the sponsor needing to push more sales to the next millennial generation, since they're probably running out of potential buyers from Gen X and prior.

Yeahhhh I mean I appreciate what she was trying to do to make it simpler for younger people and appeal to a broader audience but the math was definitely off. Sure, in general if you’re going to Disney regularly anyways it makes sense and you likely will come out ahead but the way she did it with financing an OKW contract makes me very skeptical about how good of a deal she got and I’m pretty much committed to DVC and bought nearly 500 points. On my spreadsheet I compare DVC to full rack rates and 25% off.

Anyways back to your live coverage of the ROFR monster :

 

[maui22]

Speaking of getting back on track….

I passed!!! Finally getting my HHI points
I’ll post the official chain when I’m back at my computer but I am so excited we passed.

Congratulations

 

[DigitalOlli]

I think we may have been bidding against each other on your contract Did you make a full price offer at $110? I lost out on that one and it gave me an idea where the market was at, so I bid $105 on a $125 contract and got it without any back and forth!

no i made the offer at a 125 usd ask price

 

[MOM POPPINS]

Mom Poppins---$50-$9756-150-VB-Dec-0/21, 125/22, 150/23, 150/24- sent 8/2

 

[Bearval]

Here's the numbers:

150 Points @ BCV		$275 PP (Direct)	$120 PP (Resale 1)	Rental @ $20 PP		Opportunity Cost (Direct)	Opportunity Cost (Resale @ $120)		investing & renting instead of direct	investing & renting instead of resale @ $120)
Purchase Cost:		$41,250.00​	$18,000.00​	$0.00​		$41,250.00​	$18,000.00​		$41,250.00​	$18,000.00​
Dues/Rents: 2023		$1,225.50​	$1,225.50​	$3,000.00​		$44,343.75​	$19,350.00​		$42,569.25​	$17,575.500​
2024​		$1,274.52​	$1,274.52​	$3,000.00​		$47,669.53​	$20,801.25​		$44,036.46​	$17,168.18​
2025​		$1,325.50​	$1,325.50​	$3,000.00​		$51,244.75​	$22,361.34​		$45,664.70​	$16,781.30​
2026​		$1,378.52​	$1,378.52​	$3,000.00​		$55,088.10​	$24,038.44​		$47,468.07​	$16,418.42​
2027​		$1,433.66​	$1,433.66​	$3,000.00​		$59,219.71​	$25,841.33​		$49,461.84​	$16,083.46​
2028​		$1,491.01​	$1,491.01​	$3,000.00​		$63,661.19​	$27,779.43​		$51,662.49​	$15,780.73​
2029​		$1,550.65​	$1,550.65​	$3,000.00​		$68,435.78​	$29,862.88​		$54,087.82​	$15,514.93​
2030​		$1,612.67​	$1,612.67​	$3,000.00​		$73,568.46​	$32,102.60​		$56,757.08​	$15,291.22​
2031​		$1,677.18​	$1,677.18​	$3,000.00​		$79,086.09​	$34,510.30​		$59,691.04​	$15,115.25​
2032​		$1,744.27​	$1,744.27​	$3,000.00​		$85,017.55​	$37,098.57​		$62,912.14​	$14,993.16​
2033​		$1,814.04​	$1,814.04​	$3,000.00​		$91,393.87​	$39,880.96​		$66,444.59​	$14,931.68​
2034​		$1,886.60​	$1,886.60​	$3,000.00​		$98,248.41​	$42,872.03​		$70,314.54​	$14,938.16​
2035​		$1,962.06​	$1,962.06​	$3,000.00​		$105,617.04​	$46,087.44​		$74,550.19​	$15,020.59​
2036​		$2,040.55​	$2,040.55​	$3,000.00​		$113,538.32​	$49,543.99​		$79,182.00​	$15,187.68​
2037​		$2,122.17​	$2,122.17​	$3,000.00​		$122,053.69​	$53,259.79​		$84,242.82​	$15,448.92​
2038​		$2,207.06​	$2,207.06​	$3,000.00​		$131,207.72​	$57,254.28​		$89,768.09​	$15,814.65​
2039​		$2,295.34​	$2,295.34​	$3,000.00​		$141,048.30​	$61,548.35​		$95,796.04​	$16,296.09​
2040​		$2,387.15​	$2,387.15​	$3,000.00​		$151,626.92​	$66,164.47​		$102,367.89​	$16,905.45​
2041​		$2,482.64​	$2,482.64​	$3,000.00​		$162,998.94​	$71,126.81​		$109,528.12​	$17,655.99​
2042​		$2,581.94​	$2,581.94​	$3,000.00​		$175,223.86​	$76,461.32​		$117,324.67​	$18,562.14​
Total Dues/Rents:		$36,493.04​	$36,493.04​	$60,000.00​
Total Cost:		$77,743.04​	$54,493.04​	$60,000.00​
Cost Per Year:		$3,887.15​	$2,724.65​	$3,000.00​

You have too much time on your hands

 

[Bearval]

Good luck renting BCV for $20 pp, might be possible if someone snags a reservation during the 7months windows, but luckily most BCV owners value their points higher than that. On Facebook most, but not all rent for something like $24-$25 pp for BWV and BCV points.


Also I've seen a lot of people here, posting their own math around buying or not buying. In reality you can get the numbers to show you anything you like. It doesn't mean that what they show Is wrong, but it's also doesn't mean that it's correct.

For me timesharing is an investment, not only financially because I save money on future vacations, but mostly an investment in my family's vacation time TOGETHER. I never seen anyone put a value on that, but I guess that's just as difficult as predicting anything else.

I don’t consider my DVC a financial investment but an investment in my family to spend a week or so together at a place currently everyone wants to go. I can take or leave the parks I enjoy relaxing at the resort.

 

[emchen]

Mom Poppins---$50-$9756-150-VB-Dec-0/21, 125/22, 150/23, 150/24- sent 8/2

Wow really tempting the rofr monster now.

 

[Ginamarie]

I’m happy for you!
I should email my title company to see if they’ve heard on mine……Congrats!!

I'd bet yours is coming today and then you can join me in the "waiting for documents" camp.

 

[Ginamarie]

Officially:

Ginamarie---$60-$10777-185-HH-Feb-0/22, 0/23, 90/24, 185/25-Credit for 2024 dues- sent 7/22, passed 8/14/23

Normally I don't look at stripped contracts, but I'm kind of glad I don't have to worry about points expiring while I wait for closing/points loading this time. On our last contract, I watched 160 points disappear while we were waiting for Disney to load our points and I'm still salty about it a year later! Plus, we're getting a credit for what the seller used in the 2024 dues, which means I owe less money at closing. I will, of course, be looking for more HHI points now because really 185 isn't going to cut it long term with the size of my family.

 

[Cyberc1978]

We passed… like everyone else

Cyberc1978---$130-$22806-170-BCV-Oct-0/22, 340/23, 170/24-Seller pays '23 MF- sent 7/26, passed 8/15

 

[Jenglish13]

Good luck renting BCV for $20 pp, might be possible if someone snags a reservation during the 7months windows, but luckily most BCV owners value their points higher than that. On Facebook most, but not all rent for something like $24-$25 pp for BWV and BCV points.


Also I've seen a lot of people here, posting their own math around buying or not buying. In reality you can get the numbers to show you anything you like. It doesn't mean that what they show Is wrong, but it's also doesn't mean that it's correct.

For me timesharing is an investment, not only financially because I save money on future vacations, but mostly an investment in my family's vacation time TOGETHER. I never seen anyone put a value on that, but I guess that's just as difficult as predicting anything else.

I've had no problems renting BCV points for $20 from people here on Dis boards so far. Whether that continues is a fair question.

I agree 100% about investing in family vacation time, what I'm exploring is acquiring and using the same number of points and whether it makes more financial sense to buy a contract or rent points.

 

[E2ME2]

Here's the numbers:

150 Points @ BCV		$275 PP (Direct)	$120 PP (Resale 1)	Rental @ $20 PP		Opportunity Cost (Direct)	Opportunity Cost (Resale @ $120)		investing & renting instead of direct	investing & renting instead of resale @ $120)
Purchase Cost:		$41,250.00​	$18,000.00​	$0.00​		$41,250.00​	$18,000.00​		$41,250.00​	$18,000.00​
Dues/Rents: 2023		$1,225.50​	$1,225.50​	$3,000.00​		$44,343.75​	$19,350.00​		$42,569.25​	$17,575.500​
2024​		$1,274.52​	$1,274.52​	$3,000.00​		$47,669.53​	$20,801.25​		$44,036.46​	$17,168.18​
2025​		$1,325.50​	$1,325.50​	$3,000.00​		$51,244.75​	$22,361.34​		$45,664.70​	$16,781.30​
2026​		$1,378.52​	$1,378.52​	$3,000.00​		$55,088.10​	$24,038.44​		$47,468.07​	$16,418.42​
2027​		$1,433.66​	$1,433.66​	$3,000.00​		$59,219.71​	$25,841.33​		$49,461.84​	$16,083.46​
2028​		$1,491.01​	$1,491.01​	$3,000.00​		$63,661.19​	$27,779.43​		$51,662.49​	$15,780.73​
2029​		$1,550.65​	$1,550.65​	$3,000.00​		$68,435.78​	$29,862.88​		$54,087.82​	$15,514.93​
2030​		$1,612.67​	$1,612.67​	$3,000.00​		$73,568.46​	$32,102.60​		$56,757.08​	$15,291.22​
2031​		$1,677.18​	$1,677.18​	$3,000.00​		$79,086.09​	$34,510.30​		$59,691.04​	$15,115.25​
2032​		$1,744.27​	$1,744.27​	$3,000.00​		$85,017.55​	$37,098.57​		$62,912.14​	$14,993.16​
2033​		$1,814.04​	$1,814.04​	$3,000.00​		$91,393.87​	$39,880.96​		$66,444.59​	$14,931.68​
2034​		$1,886.60​	$1,886.60​	$3,000.00​		$98,248.41​	$42,872.03​		$70,314.54​	$14,938.16​
2035​		$1,962.06​	$1,962.06​	$3,000.00​		$105,617.04​	$46,087.44​		$74,550.19​	$15,020.59​
2036​		$2,040.55​	$2,040.55​	$3,000.00​		$113,538.32​	$49,543.99​		$79,182.00​	$15,187.68​
2037​		$2,122.17​	$2,122.17​	$3,000.00​		$122,053.69​	$53,259.79​		$84,242.82​	$15,448.92​
2038​		$2,207.06​	$2,207.06​	$3,000.00​		$131,207.72​	$57,254.28​		$89,768.09​	$15,814.65​
2039​		$2,295.34​	$2,295.34​	$3,000.00​		$141,048.30​	$61,548.35​		$95,796.04​	$16,296.09​
2040​		$2,387.15​	$2,387.15​	$3,000.00​		$151,626.92​	$66,164.47​		$102,367.89​	$16,905.45​
2041​		$2,482.64​	$2,482.64​	$3,000.00​		$162,998.94​	$71,126.81​		$109,528.12​	$17,655.99​
2042​		$2,581.94​	$2,581.94​	$3,000.00​		$175,223.86​	$76,461.32​		$117,324.67​	$18,562.14​
Total Dues/Rents:		$36,493.04​	$36,493.04​	$60,000.00​
Total Cost:		$77,743.04​	$54,493.04​	$60,000.00​
Cost Per Year:		$3,887.15​	$2,724.65​	$3,000.00​

As others have noted, assuming no increase in rental costs over this span is a flawed estimate.
However, Rental Costs are more akin to a "T&M" Contract, in that you can toggle the spigot on and off at anytime, and fluctuate your expenses accordingly.
Direct & Resale purchases both come with "O&M" costs (ie MFs) that will be with you until the contract has expired or is sold.

 

[intamin]

We passed… like everyone else

Cyberc1978---$130-$22806-170-BCV-Oct-0/22, 340/23, 170/24-Seller pays '23 MF- sent 7/26, passed 8/15

That’s a nice find, double points and MF for 2023. Congrats!

 

[Jenglish13]

I can't comment if $20/point is realistic today for BCV but your spreadsheet definitely is biased towards renting because (i) you assume that if you own then your dues increase at 4%, (ii) You assume that if you keep your money invested you make 7.5% in opportunity cost, but (iii) you assume that if you rent today at $20/point, you can still rent at $20/point for the next ~20 years. Keep in mind that the 2040 dues of ~$2400 are $16/point, so why would someone rent their points for $20?

In order to be more conservative, try an opportunity cost of 4.5%, and assume that your rental cost increases by 4% per year. Nobody knows that the stock market will do but the opportunity cost of 4.5% reflects a 20-year treasury bond that you can buy today and hold to maturity, just like you might do with the DVC points. I think you will find that these changes make rental somewhat less attractive.

Thanks for the feedback. As I mentioned, I didn't know how to forecast rental costs, but they need to definitely increase at some rate to make this more accurate. For the dues I just took the average historical rate of increase and continued with that. I would quibbe with you on the likely returns on investment though. While you can lock in a guaranteed return of 4.5%, a 7.5% return is well within the historical average of even conservative, low risk portfolios. But of course there's all kinds of variables and uncertainties built into any kid of forecast model like this.