ROFR Thread April to June 2024 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[AstroBlasters]

This.!!
I was almost ready to just add-on 50 direct at BWV, with the idea that if I just kept doing that every year or so (adding 50 direct), i would eventually have enough for benefits, but I honestly don't really care about benefits/perks, they really are worthless to me, EXCEPT being able to use points at VDH, & possibly future resorts, but even that isn't a big deal, especially if you own VGC.

Not for BWV… but the ability to book VDH and other resorts in the future (Disneyland FWD) does carry some real value.

VGC ownership works great at the 7-11m window…. but if you are watching YouTube and REALLY want to go to Pixar Fest and Star Wars nite…. having some unrestricted points is pretty darn nice to snag a VDH studio….

 

[Chili327]

Not for BWV… but the ability to book VDH and other resorts in the future (Disneyland FWD) does carry some real value.

VGC ownership works great at the 7-11m window…. but if you are watching YouTube and REALLY want to go to Pixar Fest and Star Wars nite…. having some unrestricted points is pretty darn nice to snag a VDH studio….

But that tax... feels like a knife in the back. lol

 

[TheGambler22]

TheGambler22---$95-$16612-150-SSR-Mar-0/23, 300/24, 150/25, 150/26- sent 4/16 -- Passed 5/2/24

Great timing there.

 

[AstroBlasters]

But that tax... feels like a knife in the back. lol

Still a lot better than paying cash…. and I’d choose VDH over offsite any day (my apologies to the Westin crew… no disrespect intended for that very nice property… I’d just rather pay points and tax than cash and tax).

 

[Chili327]

Still a lot better than paying cash…. and I’d choose VDH over offsite any day (my apologies to the Westin crew… no disrespect intended for that very nice property… I’d just rather pay points and tax than cash and tax).

I agree, I would love to stay there, I really like it, I just don't like that tax, or the dues. lol
Would you use VGC points there?

 

[aammtt20]

Found a little something to compliment my AKV contract, so now I can be two-for-two on owning at all WDW lodges. Couldn't fit it in the string, but the seller is also reimbursing MF for the 27 borrowed points from 2025 dues.

aammtt20---$144-$9120-60-CCV@WL-Jun-0/23, 27/24, 33/25, 60/26-Seller pays MF '24- sent 5/2

 

[AstroBlasters]

I agree, I would love to stay there, I really like it, I just don't like that tax, or the dues. lol
Would you use VGC points there?

VGC points are sacred. I use my direct Aulani points there…. basically the same dues and the same TOT tax, but that was one reason why I picked up the direct Aulani points…. VDH is always a 0-4m trip based on another trip (work, etc) or my wife saying “it’d be fun to go to Pixar fest”….

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

This.!!
I was almost ready to just add-on 50 direct at BWV, with the idea that if I just kept doing that every year or so (adding 50 direct), i would eventually have enough for benefits, but I honestly don't really care about benefits/perks, they really are worthless to me, EXCEPT being able to use points at VDH, & possibly future resorts, but even that isn't a big deal, especially if you own VGC.

If I didn’t already have “Y-card” status, I would agree that buying in small chunks to compliment resale contracts over time would be attractive—but I would not do it at a 2042 resort (unless there was a mega fire sale beyond current OKW-E) because you’ll lose it in 2042. It’s an unpopular opinion here, but I do think Disney will ultimately raise Y-card status to 175/200 points. So I’d want to grandfather 150 points at the longest contract resorts.

Why do I think that? Because people have shown they don’t want low point charts with high dues and high point costs (CFW) so I presume we’re going to start seeing “cheaper” points/dues and more breathtaking point charts. I suspect Poly Tower (and BWV when it relaunches) will have some attractive looking standard rooms, but the lake/garden/theme park view rooms will rise dramatically. If the new tower rooms cost 2x as many points, they can sell direct points for 1/2 the face value and 1/2 the dues (I guess not dues if it’s combined with PVB, but lower dues overall) and make the same profit. I don’t think it’s actually going to be double the point chart of VGF, but I think the premium view rooms will be much higher.

Anyway, if I’m right and Disney has realized they can’t raise direct prices roughly commensurate with inflation, I assume they will inflate the point chart instead—and then they need more people to buy more points so that not all owners are competing for standard view studios.

 

[AstroBlasters]

If I didn’t already have “Y-card” status, I would agree that buying in small chunks to compliment resale contracts over time would be attractive—but I would not do it at a 2042 resort (unless there was a mega fire sale beyond current OKW-E) because you’ll lose it in 2042. It’s an unpopular opinion here, but I do think Disney will ultimately raise Y-card status to 175/200 points. So I’d want to grandfather 150 points at the longest contract resorts.

Why do I think that? Because people have shown they don’t want low point charts with high dues and high point costs (CFW) so I presume we’re going to start seeing “cheaper” points/dues and more breathtaking point charts. I suspect Poly Tower (and BWV when it relaunches) will have some attractive looking standard rooms, but the lake/garden/theme park view rooms will rise dramatically. If the new tower rooms cost 2x as many points, they can sell direct points for 1/2 the face value and 1/2 the dues (I guess not dues if it’s combined with PVB, but lower dues overall) and make the same profit. I don’t think it’s actually going to be double the point chart of VGF, but I think the premium view rooms will be much higher.

Anyway, if I’m right and Disney has realized they can’t raise direct prices roughly commensurate with inflation, I assume they will inflate the point chart instead—and then they need more people to buy more points so that not all owners are competing for standard view studios.

It would be tricky to have “low priced” new direct points that could still work at the legacy properties.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

It would be tricky to have “low priced” new direct points that could still work at the legacy properties.

Oh, when I said “cheaper” (low priced) I meant $160-200 after incentives and MB. I believe that’s still more per point than the OKW and even RIV/AUL incentives, right?

 

[Tatebeck]

Oh, when I said “cheaper” (low priced) I meant $160-200 after incentives and MB. I believe that’s still more per point than the OKW and even RIV/AUL incentives, right?

That's about the price I was thinking it would be as well. Hopefully the point charts are closer to RIV and VGF though, since it has a similar expiration to those two and is not a new association that will expire in aomething like 2074.

 

[Chili327]

you’ll lose it in 2042. It’s an unpopular opinion here, but I do think Disney will ultimately raise Y-card status to 175/200 points. So I’d want to grandfather 150 points at the longest contract resorts.

I'm sure they will raise it... until it proves to be a hindrance, then they'll stop or possibly go back down.
Interesting (i don't have a blue card), i never thought about losing it after 2042. But definitely can be something to think about... not a huge deal for sure, but another layer of thought.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

That's about the price I was thinking it would be as well. Hopefully the point charts are closer to RIV and VGF though, since it has a similar expiration to those two and is not a new association that will expire in aomething like 2074.

I hope I’m wrong because I like the longhouses and if the new tower chart is insane, it will put more people in the longhouses (and I don’t own PVB so I need 7mo availability). I just see very little downside to Disney in making premium room point charts exorbitant.

 

[Tatebeck]

I hope I’m wrong because I like the longhouses and if the new tower chart is insane, it will put more people in the longhouses (and I don’t own PVB so I need 7mo availability). I just see very little downside to Disney in making premium room point charts exorbitant.

The poly point charts seems to be on the higher end already. I'm just hoping for something a tiny bit higher, not crazy. And they may not touch the studio prices much. BRV and CCV studios and VGF and Big Pine Key studios all seem to have stayed at the same level. It may just affect tower studios, and then 1br and up. But we'll see!

 

[G.C.]

G.C.---$129-$26845-200-BCV-Oct-0/23, 12/24, 200/25- sent 4/3

G.C.---$129-$26845-200-BCV-Oct-0/23, 12/24, 200/25- sent 4/3, passed 4/23

 

[mike1986]

Mike1986---$152-$29129-185-PVB-Mar-0/23, 185/24, 185/25, 185/26- sent 4/23, taken 5/3

 

[BuzzLightyr]

Sept 2021 I bought a 300pt loaded SSR for $130 a point and was told I was really pushing the ROFR boundaries. Oh how the times have change, as well as the value of my contract.

In Sep 2021 - if you bought a 5 year government bond, you'd earn less than 1% interest. Time value of money and discount rates were very different. DVC financing was still expensive, but if you had cash, or cheaper financing, that's really your discount rate.

Between then and now, you probably had the points available to take 5 vacations - assuming you can borrow points and essentially strip your contract. Each vacation is probably worth at least $18/point (thinking about value to rent out), and you're paying roughly $8/point in dues, netting $10 of value from the contract. With interest rates near zero until last year, time-value of money doesn't really have an impact on near term cashflows.

You bought your contract at $130, then have 5 years of vacation were the benefit minus dues is $10/year, or $50. If you were to sell your contract today stripped, you can probably get at least $80/point. I'd say you did okay in this case. You didn't gain as much as if you took market risk and invested in the S&P500 or NVIDIA.

At $80 contract, you still have a present value of all the future vacations (minus expected dues). The problem with higher rates is that the present value shrinks. Instead of Y1 = $10, Y2 = $10, Y3= $10, you might get $9, $8, $7 of value in each year. In the current resale market, i would use a 12%-15% annual discount rate on current contracts and you roughly get the current pricing.

 

[JackosinDIS]

Mike1986---$152-$29129-185-PVB-Mar-0/23, 185/24, 185/25, 185/26- sent 4/23, taken 5/3

Oh no! Sorry! They’re setting the bar high on this!

 

[Sandisw]

Mike1986---$152-$29129-185-PVB-Mar-0/23, 185/24, 185/25, 185/26- sent 4/23, taken 5/3

Wow! I’d say they really are making an effort to get the resale price up to potentially get people to go direct when sales start in the next 3 to 4 months.

 

[atthebeachclub]

Wow! I’d say they really are making an effort to get the resale price up to potentially get people to go direct when sales start in the next 3 to 4 months.

If that’s the case, Bay Lake Tower might look like even more of a bargain. Not far away but the pricing is a lot friendlier! Resale, at least.