ROFR Thread April to June 2024 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Post COVID YOLO pricing….

So I think that is definitely a factor, but if you look at the FFR chart upside down, the “YOLO pricing” starts fade right around the same time that the Fed starts hiking…but WDW stayed packed another 6-12 months after the prices started correcting. I also think the ROFR monster went to sleep around the same time (perhaps not coincidentally, lol).

 

[AstroBlasters]

So I think that is definitely a factor, but if you look at the FFR chart upside down, the “YOLO pricing” starts fade right around the same time that the Fed starts hiking…but WDW stayed packed another 6-12 months after the prices started correcting. I also think the ROFR monster went to sleep around the same time (perhaps not coincidentally, lol).

In Econometrics they teach you to tease out certain factors to see if it truly correlates or if it’s just noise.

I’ll buy that inflation has eaten into people’s discretionary income and that impacts their vacation budget, but I don’t believe rates moving has had a material impact on DVC prices.

Most people have a fixed mortgage at 2-3% so rate changes won’t impact a huge swatch of the population on lodging like they used to.

Also, it seems that DVC loans are usually around 10%ish. Hasn’t really moved with the FFR.

I think this is just like basketball hoops, trampolines, and Pelotons during COVID….demand was really high and prices shot up…. then people got them and stopped shopping for new ones…. prices shot down….same with DVC.

I’m sure no fear of ROFR has an impact as well because of the YOLO offers….

 

[atthebeachclub]

In Econometrics they teach you to tease out certain factors to see if it truly correlates or if it’s just noise.

I’ll buy that inflation has eaten into people’s discretionary income and that impacts their vacation budget, but I don’t believe rates moving has had a material impact on DVC prices.

Most people have a fixed mortgage at 2-3% so rate changes won’t impact a huge swatch of the populating on lodging like they used to.

Also, it seems that DVC loans are usually around 10%ish. Hasn’t really moved with the FFR.

I think this is just like basketball hoops, trampolines, and Pelotons during COVID….demand was really high and prices shot up…. then people got them and stopped shopping for new ones…. prices shot down….same with DVC.

I’m sure no fear of ROFR has an impact as well because of the YOLO offers….

I wonder what percent of buyers have traditionally financed this purchase, and if most used DVC specific financing or if they sought alternatives like a HELOC. The alternatives are no longer great choices; cash is king.

Would also be interesting to know the age ranges of most DVC buyers because that might indicate whether or not they are likely to have a 2-3% mortgage or not.

Also, I resemble that Peloton remark. I entered quarantine with the bike and treadmill, but now I have everything. Love it, though!

 

[InabinettheCabinet]

I wonder what percent of buyers have traditionally financed this purchase, and if most used DVC specific financing or if they sought alternatives like a HELOC. The alternatives are no longer great choices; cash is king.

Would also be interesting to know the age ranges of most DVC buyers because that might indicate whether or not they are likely to have a 2-3% mortgage or not.

Also, I resemble that Peloton remark. I entered quarantine with the bike and treadmill, but now I have everything. Love it, though!

Well I can't speak for all buyers but just for the record I'm 27 with a mortgage at 2.75% and am financing my contract. However, I do plan on paying it off within a year.

 

[Tatebeck]

Just turned 33 here with around 4%. Had a 3% for about 5 years but had to move pretty suddenly a couple years ago due to a family death just before rates really skyrocketed. But the property was a family property with good location and acreage, and I'm really just buying out my sibling's half of it, so it was really a 50% discount and it will be paid off in about 3.5 years. I'm buying my contracts cash for maximum value for the future 20-50 years

 

[rundisney79]

rundisney79---$85-$23998-250-SSR-Jun-0/23, 500/24, 250/25, 250/26- sent 5/2

 

[Unclelude]

I’m sure no fear of ROFR has an impact as well because of the YOLO offers….

I agree... Even more so I think it's because Disney stopped ROFR... There is no floor currently... Huge downward price pressure ... 2 years ago $130s SSR was getting ROFRd.

Plus yeah all the covid helicopter $$.

 

[pkrieger2287]

Check out the latest DVC Right of First Refusal Report (ROFR) for April 2024 from our friends at DVC Resale Market!

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blo...il-24/?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=dvcfan

 

[Blerghityblergh]

In Econometrics they teach you to tease out certain factors to see if it truly correlates or if it’s just noise.

I’ll buy that inflation has eaten into people’s discretionary income and that impacts their vacation budget, but I don’t believe rates moving has had a material impact on DVC prices.

Most people have a fixed mortgage at 2-3% so rate changes won’t impact a huge swatch of the populating on lodging like they used to.

Also, it seems that DVC loans are usually around 10%ish. Hasn’t really moved with the FFR.

I think this is just like basketball hoops, trampolines, and Pelotons during COVID….demand was really high and prices shot up…. then people got them and stopped shopping for new ones…. prices shot down….same with DVC.

I’m sure no fear of ROFR has an impact as well because of the YOLO offers….

This could be a fun project for a student studying behavioral economics. What are the motivators and barriers influencing the DVC resale market. Seems like a lot of fun potential factors to explore in a mixed methods study!

 

[billsfan12345]

rundisney79---$85-$23998-250-SSR-Jun-0/23, 500/24, 250/25, 250/26- sent 5/2

Out of curiosity where did you find this? That's a great deal with all those points!

 

[wilkydelts]

I agree... Even more so I think it's because Disney stopped ROFR... There is no floor currently... Huge downward price pressure ... 2 years ago $130s SSR was getting ROFRd.

Plus yeah all the covid helicopter $$.

Sept 2021 I bought a 300pt loaded SSR for $130 a point and was told I was really pushing the ROFR boundaries. Oh how the times have change, as well as the value of my contract.

 

[geargrinder]

I agree... Even more so I think it's because Disney stopped ROFR... There is no floor currently... Huge downward price pressure ... 2 years ago $130s SSR was getting ROFRd.

Plus yeah all the covid helicopter $$.

Completely agree.

Two years ago I was trying to buy AKL. Had one taken at $135. Bought from international seller at $136. Others were being taken at up to $138 that I remember.

ROFR was taking a bit of everything back then. The only ones safe were VGC, HHI, and VB.

 

[AstroBlasters]

It's pretty crazy how much resale prices have fallen. Only 2-3 years ago resale SSR was going for 120-130, AKV was going for 140s and being ROFR'd in the 130s, BLT was hitting 180s. Crazy revenge travel times.

DVC got too greedy and raised the direct prices too high and now they can’t move the points.

OKW fire sale this year and VGF last year shows that if the price is more reasonable that people will choose direct because it’s easier and doesn’t have the restrictions.

They need to find a way to lower their cost structure of selling ROFR’d points so that it doesn’t require as much of a spread….. which is probably why the guides are upset with the new compensation structure and wanting to unionize in CA.

There really is no reason to be letting BWV contracts go for around $100pp except that they can’t move them at $240pp… but at $150pp…. I bet more people would just go direct….

Of course, they don’t want to outshine any newly built properties by making more desirable locations less expensive….

 

[Disdreaming479]

I also bought SSR at its peak and stressed the whole time until rofr waived. Buyers now are having a completely different timeframe for sure! I’ve had so much fun on those banked points, I don’t even care about the purchase price. I wanted the lower dues and points charts. When availability does dwindle in the future, I want to have priority booking at lower points for more nights.
However it’s sure was nice to add on blt at $120 this year with a quicker process.
ETA: I stayed twice at beach club 2 bedroom for 5 nights each on cash and that stung more than the dvc purchase.

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

DVC got too greedy and raised the direct prices too high and now they can’t move the points.

OKW fire sale this year and VGF last year shows that if the price is more reasonable that people will choose direct because it’s easier and doesn’t have the restrictions.

They need to find a way to lower their cost structure of selling ROFR’d points so that it doesn’t require as much of a spread….. which is probably why the guides are upset with the new compensation structure and wanting to unionize in CA.

There really is no reason to be letting BWV contracts go for around $100pp except that they can’t move them at $240pp… but at $150pp…. I bet more people would just go direct….

Of course, they don’t want to outshine any newly built properties by making more desirable locations less expensive….

Completely agree with all of this.

Only other point I’d add is that in this economic environment of rising rates DVC may be seeing higher rate of foreclosures so they have enough supply at the sold out resorts without needing to ROFR any.

 

[I Run Long]

DVC got too greedy and raised the direct prices too high and now they can’t move the points.

OKW fire sale this year and VGF last year shows that if the price is more reasonable that people will choose direct because it’s easier and doesn’t have the restrictions.

They need to find a way to lower their cost structure of selling ROFR’d points so that it doesn’t require as much of a spread….. which is probably why the guides are upset with the new compensation structure and wanting to unionize in CA.

There really is no reason to be letting BWV contracts go for around $100pp except that they can’t move them at $240pp… but at $150pp…. I bet more people would just go direct….

Of course, they don’t want to outshine any newly built properties by making more desirable locations less expensive….

100%. As I watch the direct prices continue to rise, I wonder how long it will be before they start at $300/pt? Once they hit $200/pt that became a hard pass for me - especially as I am paying with the Canuck buck. I remember trying to get a SSR contract and gave up after I had 3 contracts ROFR'd. Switched to AKV and passed on the first try at $100/pt. This was just before they started targeting AKV. Unless I win the lottery, there won't be anymore purchases from me.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Completely agree with all of this.

Only other point I’d add is that in this economic environment of rising rates DVC may be seeing higher rate of foreclosures so they have enough supply at the sold out resorts without needing to ROFR any.

Excellent point, however with unemployment at less than 4%, I still doubt that rates are causing and increase in foreclosures . If anything it would be inflation.

1) Inflation in travel costs to get to Disney.
2) Inflation in ticket prices and food/merch when you are at Disney.
3) Inflation in rent/food/property tax/transportation costs reducing discretionary budget.

If unemployment went from 4% to 6% and rates stayed high because inflation was still above the Fed’s target…. then we would REALLY start to see sellers accept some aggressive offers as long as they were not underwater…

 

[chazas]

Out of curiosity where did you find this? That's a great deal with all those points!

Find the contracts that meet your needs and start negotiating. I just closed a similar contract at the same price per point - this one's a little better because it's a smaller contract and has a bigger percentage of banked 2023 points -but close enough. I just started making offers and found a seller that was willing to negotiate.

 

[atthebeachclub]

Completely agree with all of this.

Only other point I’d add is that in this economic environment of rising rates DVC may be seeing higher rate of foreclosures so they have enough supply at the sold out resorts without needing to ROFR any.

I wondered if this and maybe owner deaths are where all the OKW contracts came from.

 

[Chili327]

There really is no reason to be letting BWV contracts go for around $100pp except that they can’t move them at $240pp… but at $150pp…. I bet more people would just go direct….

Of course, they don’t want to outshine any newly built properties by making more desirable locations less expensive….

This.!!
I was almost ready to just add-on 50 direct at BWV, with the idea that if I just kept doing that every year or so (adding 50 direct), i would eventually have enough for benefits, but I honestly don't really care about benefits/perks, they really are worthless to me, EXCEPT being able to use points at VDH, & possibly future resorts, but even that isn't a big deal, especially if you own VGC.