ROFR Thread April to June 2024 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[DonMacGregor]

To your point on prices, I agree. I paid $104 for my SSR contract with 2022 points carried over in February/March 2023. I could have done better however the current prices are very close to what I paid. Much closer to an average of $100 than to $90.

I corrected my post. DVC started to slow down on ROFR in September or October of 2022, with it completely disappearing by February of 2023. The fact remains that over the last 12 months, with ROFR completely gone, prices have absolutely stabilized and don't show anything remotely close to a downward spiral.

Anyway, I think I derailed the thread again and feel I'm going to get a scolding.

 

[TinkAgainU]

Correct. If you move that data to compare 2023 to 2024 (the period where we were/are fully in the ROFR "pause" and represents the current trend over the past 12 months), the numbers (at least from DVC Resale Market) don't move anywhere near as much.

You always have great insight, but I'm sooo distracted (in a Good way) watching your little monorail icon. It just makes me Happy lol.

 

[JackosinDIS]

Agree prices seem to be relatively stable and have found their natural floor in most cases. There are one or two which I think may drop a bit further if ROFR doesn’t make a come back!

 

[TinkAgainU]

Just for the fun of it - to compare to the www.dvcresalemarket.com chart - I went and ran the numbers on the Boardwalk recorded Deeds (resale only since we know Direct is $240/point) for the month of April to date. Which was twenty contracts.

I know I've bought and sold Boardwalk in the last 60 days (small contracts $140-$145) but the www.dvcresalemarket.com site shows $118 as the "Average". The lowest recorded was $103 per point (not surprisingly a larger contract at 270 points). The highest recorded was $150 per point (a 50 point contract). No way to tell if either of those were loaded or stripped - which also changes those values considerably.

Using a single charted number can be misleading for market values.

 

[CastAStone]

Should that column be 2023 prices not 2022?

No.

 

[CastAStone]

Just for the fun of it - to compare to the www.dvcresalemarket.com chart - I went and ran the numbers on the Boardwalk recorded Deeds (resale only since we know Direct is $240/point) for the month of April to date. Which was twenty contracts.

I know I've bought and sold Boardwalk in the last 60 days (small contracts $140-$145) but the www.dvcresalemarket.com site shows $118 as the "Average". The lowest recorded was $103 per point (not surprisingly a larger contract at 270 points). The highest recorded was $150 per point (a 50 point contract). No way to tell if either of those were loaded or stripped - which also changes those values considerably.

Using a single charted number can be misleading for market values.

It was the easiest price resource to access that isn’t blocked. Fidelity’s monthly blogs are inconsistently posted and I’m not doing an OC deep dive.

I think it’s important to compare the same month because prices have seasonality. I picked 2022 because the price peak was in early 2022 and ROFR abated over the course of that year, and because the poster I responded to said “over a year”.

 

[BuzzLightyr]

Another vote/guess for more stabilized prices for most resorts minus the higher fee beach ones (HHI, VB).

We are seeing rofr coming back very selectively which should support prices. However, the direct incentives for OKW will likely push down resale prices there.

There is likely a natural supply of resale contracts through death, divorce or just change of mind. The question is the demand of resale buyers at the current price point.

What sold me to buy was the inflation out there for both cash prices from Disney and cost to rent out points. You can use the way back machine and see where the brokers were renting out points and paying for points, in 2019 and 2022. The value of each dvc point is up substantially but the cost to buy has actually declined from 2022 levels.

The math to buy resale generally works pretty well at these prices and there seems to be a lot of activity here. 12-14%+ annual returns if you find a cheap resale deal and rent out the points.

Demographics are supportive, millenials are having kids and want space near a resort. Also lots of Boomers entering retirement with 401k plans at record peaks giving them disposable income to buy dvc points.

There is a lot of complex math to show the value of dvc at these levels. But let's say you are a family willing to pay $1k/night for a week long stay at Disney. That is slightly more than a pop century family room but much less than the Disney rate for a 2 bedroom. Instead of spending $7k for a one week trip to Disney, you could spend $15k for 150 resale dvc points, which you could use every other year for at two bedroom villa. Two week long trips covers your upfront for 19 years. Renting out your points for a year covers your annual fees for two years. For any affluent family that can envision two Disney on property vacations in a family style space, dvc resale seems like a no brainer at this price point - that's why it's unlikely to go down much further from here.

 

[TinkAgainU]

It was the easiest price resource to access that isn’t blocked. Fidelity’s monthly blogs are inconsistently posted and I’m not doing an OC deep dive.

I think it’s important to compare the same month because prices have seasonality. I picked 2022 because the price peak was in early 2022 and ROFR abated over the course of that year, and because the poster I responded to said “over a year”.

Understood. I was mostly making clear you cannot look at a simple chart and think, I should be paying $x/point for a contract at x resort.

Also, even their Broker Price Opinion APP at www.dvcresalemarket.com does not seem to coincide with real numbers I've seen when watching other sites' activity. But, if all the Buyers and Sellers USING their site to buy/sell BELIEVE those numbers, the sales thru that Brokerage will inevitably start to resemble their own numbers... whether higher or lower than the other Brokers' sites.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Understood. I was mostly making clear you cannot look at a simple chart and think, I should be paying $x/point for a contract at x resort.

Also, even their Broker Price Opinion APP at www.dvcresalemarket.com does not seem to coincide with real numbers I've seen when watching other sites' activity. But, if all the Buyers and Sellers USING their site to buy/sell BELIEVE those numbers, the sales thru that Brokerage will inevitably start to resemble their own numbers... whether higher or lower than the other Brokers' sites.

It doesn’t benefit them to have a buyer believe that their contract is worth $x and then for all of the offers to come in at 20% lower than $x and the contract sits stale for months on end.

I think that the board sponsor spends a lot of money on marketing and social media and so therefore can get more eyeballs on their site and more ppp for their contracts than some other brokers… and it’s also why they have the highest commission rates… because of that marketing and social media presence.

Our little slice of DisBoards is not representative of the entire market, we are like the price seeking/lowball hedge fund managers/private equity managers in the market….

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I think that ROFR ending had an impact on prices over the course of 2023 but I also think the interest rate hiking cycle may have had an even bigger impact. A significant fraction of DVC resale buyers use credit to buy points and when borrowing cost doubles (or triples), the amount a marginal buyer can/will pay for points goes down (as does the "savings" vs. simply renting points or booking hotels). I am not expecting a cheap credit boom anytime soon, but if interest rates dropped back to where they were in 2021, I think we would see some increase in DVC Resale values, with or without ROFR.

In the meantime, I think the factors that @BuzzLightyr called out above should keep the WDW DVC Resale values from dropping too much further as long as Disney Parks remain popular vacation destinations-- if Disney actually does start plowing money into popular new expansions, I could see prices (and point rental costs) rise even without changes to macroeconomic conditions or ROFR-- having said that, I think there are several potential wildcards that could cause DVC prices to drop (a new trust model that hurts 7mo availability, a major spike in unemployment, Disney cracking down on commercial rentals, etc.)-- but I think many of us are also keeping an eye on pricing trends and would be excited to scoop up more points if we saw another 10-20% drop at the very in demand resorts. I don't see PVB, BCV, BWV, AUL, VGF, VGC dropping much from here unless we get a major surprise... and I assume that is true of BLT and CCV because they have already dropped so much recently.

 

[ClaraOswald]

Why was VGC so much cheaper in early 2023 compared to now? I know it went up right after the prices for VDH were released. But why was it so low before that?

 

[AstroBlasters]

Why was VGC so much cheaper in early 2023 compared to now? I know it went up right after the prices for VDH were released. But why was it so low before that?

Anticipation of VDH.

 

[TinkAgainU]

.

 

[ClaraOswald]

Anticipation of VDH.

So like....people wanted to get out of their VGC to buy VDH or what? I'm dumb. I don't get it.

 

[CastAStone]

Why was VGC so much cheaper in early 2023 compared to now? I know it went up right after the prices for VDH were released. But why was it so low before that?

I think the right question is why did the price of VGC increase by $100 per point in 2020-2021? It hung out in the $180s and $190s pre-Covid and then just went bananas.


The answer of course is that everybody got checks in the mail and unlike the other resorts, very few VGC contracts go on sale each month, so supply and demand got WAY out of whack. Much more so than the other resorts.

Then it fell naturally, but then spiked again when there was a run on contracts after people were disappointed in VDH pricing. That’s abated, so it’s falling naturally again.

I don’t think the natural supply-demand point in normal times is $275. I think it’s like $200. Especially with VDH now online. I think it’s going to take a lot of time to resettle there. But I think VGC is going to keep falling (at least relative to the other resorts) for years to come.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I think the right question is why did the price of VGC increase by $100 per point in 2020-2021? It hung out in the $180s and $190s pre-Covid and then just went bananas.
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The answer of course is that everybody got checks in the mail and unlike the other resorts, very few VGC contracts go on sale each month, so supply and demand got WAY out of whack. Much more so than the other resorts.

Then it fell naturally, but then spiked again when there was a run on contracts after people were disappointed in VDH pricing. That’s abated, so it’s falling naturally again.

I don’t think the natural supply-demand point in normal times is $275. I think it’s like $200. Especially with VDH now online. I think it’s going to take a lot of time to resettle there. But I think VGC is going to keep falling (at least relative to the other resorts) for years to come.

I remember a lot of people said they weren’t going to buy VGC unless it went back to $200 or less at the end of 2022 and early 2023. I pulled the trigger at $225 and $230…. glad I didn’t believe the “it will go back to $200” prognosticators.

 

[CastAStone]

I remember a lot of people said they weren’t going to buy VGC unless it went back to $200 or less at the end of 2022 and early 2023. I pulled the trigger at $225 and $230…. glad I didn’t believe the “it will go back to $200” prognosticators.

I might be wrong! The good news is that we will find out eventually.

 

[CastAStone]

I remember a lot of people said they weren’t going to buy VGC unless it went back to $200 or less at the end of 2022 and early 2023. I pulled the trigger at $225 and $230…. glad I didn’t believe the “it will go back to $200” prognosticators.

I might be wrong! The good news is that we will find out eventually.

How fun, by the way, would an “Old Takes Exposed” thread be. Just the most overconfident takes and predictions brought back when they’ve been definitively proven to be wildly off base.

I’m sure I’d have several.

 

[AstroBlasters]

So like....people wanted to get out of their VGC to but VDH or what? I'm dumb. I don't get it.

It’s always the law of supply and demand.

There is a natural market of sellers based on demographics and then there will be sellers because of personal economics, but people who were interested in a Disneyland DVC wanted to know more about the shiny new VDH offering: point chart? Price? Dues? Theming? Quality of build? Amenities?

That kept some buyers on sidelines and let the price come down (which is when some of us were telling you to hurry up and pull the trigger ).

As soon as the dues and TOT came along with some polarizing theming…. boom VGC contracts flew off the shelves because of pent up demand and led to scarcity pricing.

Now the prices have come back to earth a bit.

 

[ClaraOswald]

Yeah, I'm grateful I listened to you guys. Last year, I had been waiting to see if we were going to get a tax refund or owe a bunch before making such a large purchase (plus we were getting ready to do some things on our house.) I'm glad I didn't wait because we would have had to pay a LOT more.

Of course...now I'm waiting for a small contract that I know I'll end up having to pay a lot for...if one ever shows up.