KAngela
Earning My Ears
- Joined
- Nov 15, 2020
- Messages
- 66
Using Pangyal’s excellent ROFR thread, I ran some numbers on what’s happening with resale ROFR from 18Q1 to 21Q1. For each resort, I pulled out the lowest $/point contract that sold, and the highest ROFR that was taken. I figured it might be interesting to see which direction (if any) these were going pre-pandemic compared to now.
This isn’t scientific, and I am aware that I’m not at all considering every necessary variable (I’m ignoring total points, which matter quite a lot, and load/stripped value and seller location, which matter also, and probably other important things too). But it is interesting, and the data may prove useful if you’re looking at resale contracts, or if in the future if we hit another economic disruption that “pauses” ROFR to see how Disney might respond based on what they did this time.
I also didn’t throw any data out, I just used what was there. There’s a hole in ROFR in Q2 of 2020, and we see a big drop in the lowest contract purchased in Q2 and Q3 across the board. And of course this is hostage to what actually got offered, asking prices, and so on and so forth. So I just ignored those two quarters and considered them the "impacted quarters." That leaves a comparison of 18Q1-20Q1 to 20Q4-21Q1.
There are four resorts where we have enough data to do comparisons: AKV, BLT, OKW, and SSR. Each of these has at least 12 contracts that passed from 2018 to 2021, and also at least 8 ROFRs before Q2 2020 along with ROFRs in Q420 or Q121 (the other resorts have too many gaps). For each of these four resorts, I looked at the average “Lowest Accepted Contract” for the quarter. Then I looked at the “Highest ROFR’d Contract” for the quarter (according to the data on the thread), and took their average for the same periods. That becomes the ROFR Gap - the comparison of the lowest contract that passed and the highest one that Disney ROFR'd.
So what does it show?
AKV lowest accepted went from 94.6 $/pt to 98.2 $/pt. Highest ROFR went from 106.2 $/pt to 109 $/pt, more or less the same. AKV had no ROFRs in 20Q4. So these are pacing each other.
BLT lowest acceptance was at 128 $/pt, and now averages 138.5 $/pts. Highest ROFR went from 130.4 $/pt to 152.5 $/pt after. Obviously that’s 10 $/pt on lowest accepted, and 20 $/pt higher on highest ROFR. This coincides with Disney raising the direct cost recently, and certainly seems to indicate an effort to push this pricing upwards.
OKW is the only one that went down on lowest accepted, from 91.8 to 88.5; however there’s an 80 $/pt outlier contract ($19 away from next closest) in 20Q4. If you throw that out then OKW’s average would be 98 $/pt. ROFR on OKW went from 91.1 to 97.5. Tossing the outlier makes the growth on both sides more or less the same.
SSR went from 92.2 on lowest passed to 94.5; ROFR went from 96.3 to 103.That’s a pretty similar amount on both sides. EDIT: Wait, no it's not! That's not much higher on passed $/pt but like 6 $/point on ROFR, and this resort had an increase announcement. Sorry.
Overall, I think Disney probably manages ROFR to drive resale in certain directions, knowing that there’s a behavioral element beyond the economical one (seeing ROFR creep up should make ask price, and offers, creep up as well). We know that BLT and SSR direct pricing recently got adjusted upwards; I don’t pay enough attention to know if AKV and OKW have been bumped or not recently, but if not…maybe expect it to happen? Sure seems like Disney could be creeping that way.
If this is interesting to people, I can run it in future quarters to see if this is creeping in any directions. If it’s not interesting, or if somebody else is already doing it better…never mind, I guess!
This isn’t scientific, and I am aware that I’m not at all considering every necessary variable (I’m ignoring total points, which matter quite a lot, and load/stripped value and seller location, which matter also, and probably other important things too). But it is interesting, and the data may prove useful if you’re looking at resale contracts, or if in the future if we hit another economic disruption that “pauses” ROFR to see how Disney might respond based on what they did this time.
I also didn’t throw any data out, I just used what was there. There’s a hole in ROFR in Q2 of 2020, and we see a big drop in the lowest contract purchased in Q2 and Q3 across the board. And of course this is hostage to what actually got offered, asking prices, and so on and so forth. So I just ignored those two quarters and considered them the "impacted quarters." That leaves a comparison of 18Q1-20Q1 to 20Q4-21Q1.
There are four resorts where we have enough data to do comparisons: AKV, BLT, OKW, and SSR. Each of these has at least 12 contracts that passed from 2018 to 2021, and also at least 8 ROFRs before Q2 2020 along with ROFRs in Q420 or Q121 (the other resorts have too many gaps). For each of these four resorts, I looked at the average “Lowest Accepted Contract” for the quarter. Then I looked at the “Highest ROFR’d Contract” for the quarter (according to the data on the thread), and took their average for the same periods. That becomes the ROFR Gap - the comparison of the lowest contract that passed and the highest one that Disney ROFR'd.
So what does it show?
AKV lowest accepted went from 94.6 $/pt to 98.2 $/pt. Highest ROFR went from 106.2 $/pt to 109 $/pt, more or less the same. AKV had no ROFRs in 20Q4. So these are pacing each other.
BLT lowest acceptance was at 128 $/pt, and now averages 138.5 $/pts. Highest ROFR went from 130.4 $/pt to 152.5 $/pt after. Obviously that’s 10 $/pt on lowest accepted, and 20 $/pt higher on highest ROFR. This coincides with Disney raising the direct cost recently, and certainly seems to indicate an effort to push this pricing upwards.
OKW is the only one that went down on lowest accepted, from 91.8 to 88.5; however there’s an 80 $/pt outlier contract ($19 away from next closest) in 20Q4. If you throw that out then OKW’s average would be 98 $/pt. ROFR on OKW went from 91.1 to 97.5. Tossing the outlier makes the growth on both sides more or less the same.
SSR went from 92.2 on lowest passed to 94.5; ROFR went from 96.3 to 103.
Overall, I think Disney probably manages ROFR to drive resale in certain directions, knowing that there’s a behavioral element beyond the economical one (seeing ROFR creep up should make ask price, and offers, creep up as well). We know that BLT and SSR direct pricing recently got adjusted upwards; I don’t pay enough attention to know if AKV and OKW have been bumped or not recently, but if not…maybe expect it to happen? Sure seems like Disney could be creeping that way.
If this is interesting to people, I can run it in future quarters to see if this is creeping in any directions. If it’s not interesting, or if somebody else is already doing it better…never mind, I guess!
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