ROFR data bonanza

[lorie13]

Thanks, this is great data, especially if you are looking at resale.

 

[Nabas]

Can you provide detail of AKL ROFR contracts? Did not knew Disney exercised on AKL contracts.

The two AKV ROFR contracts are very strange. I think I'm simply misunderstanding how to read the data and am hoping someone can correct me.

On the first one, the "Doc Deed Tax" was $126.00. With a tax rate of $0.70 per $100, this implies a purchase price of $18,000. However, it's "0.4911% in Unit 113A". I'm pretty sure 0.9823% corresponds to 160 points at AKV. Since this ROFR is half that, this implies it's for 80 points. But that price-per-point doesn't make any sense: $18,000 / 80 points = $225/point.

The second ROFR had a "Doc Deed Tax" of $156.80, corresponding to a purchase price of $22,400. However, it's "0.4429% in Unit 92B", suggesting 72 points, which leads to a price-per-point of $22,400 / 72 points = $311/point

Help! What am I doing wrong?

 

[ptlohmysoul]

The two AKV ROFR contracts are very strange. I think I'm simply misunderstanding how to read the data and am hoping someone can correct me.

On the first one, the "Doc Deed Tax" was $126.00. With a tax rate of $0.70 per $100, this implies a purchase price of $18,000. However, it's "0.4911% in Unit 113A". I'm pretty sure 0.9823% corresponds to 160 points at AKV. Since this ROFR is half that, this implies it's for 80 points. But that price-per-point doesn't make any sense: $18,000 / 80 points = $225/point.

The second ROFR had a "Doc Deed Tax" of $156.80, corresponding to a purchase price of $22,400. However, it's "0.4429% in Unit 92B", suggesting 72 points, which leads to a price-per-point of $22,400 / 72 points = $311/point

Help! What am I doing wrong?

I don't know if this is right, but maybe it depends on the unit? The unit could be a studio, 1 bedroom, 2 bedroom, or 3 bedroom.

 

[dmunsil]

On the first one, the "Doc Deed Tax" was $126.00. With a tax rate of $0.70 per $100, this implies a purchase price of $18,000. However, it's "0.4911% in Unit 113A". I'm pretty sure 0.9823% corresponds to 160 points at AKV. Since this ROFR is half that, this implies it's for 80 points. But that price-per-point doesn't make any sense: $18,000 / 80 points = $225/point.

Each Unit has a different number of points; there is no consistency in how the percentage maps to points. In this case, to find out how many points are in the contract you have to look up the original deed. I just open up a new search window (Ctrl-click on "New Search") and type the grantor's name into the search box for "Either Party" to see the whole history.

In this case, you can see the original deed when they bought the property, which is for 160 points. You can see the mortgage, then the satisfaction one year later, which means they paid off the mortgage. Then you see the sale back to Disney. The strange thing is that going by the deed doc tax they sold it back for exactly what they paid (113/pt), which is astonishingly high for a resale. I wonder if there's some other way that Disney gets back contracts. Most of the contracts that went back to Disney that I investigated have a "normal" resale price.

The second ROFR had a "Doc Deed Tax" of $156.80, corresponding to a purchase price of $22,400. However, it's "0.4429% in Unit 92B", suggesting 72 points, which leads to a price-per-point of $22,400 / 72 points = $311/point

This one is really interesting. Once again it's 160 points. This time, there's an original deed and mortgage, but no satisfaction. So they hadn't paid it off. They sold it back to Disney again for the same price they paid, but turned around and bought a larger amount of AKV (175 points) and got another mortgage. So it was a trade-in.

Hmmm... that suggests that some of the things I've been calling ROFRs are actually trade-ins. And it means that Disney apparently will do a trade-in. But where's the property that the first person bought? I suppose they might have traded in for VGC, Aulani, Hilton Head or Vero; those aren't tracked by Orange County. That's probably it.

Unfortunately, it means my ROFR numbers are all potentially off. Worse, it means in order to have accurate ROFR numbers, I'd need to track down the original deed for all of these and see the places where the sale price back to Disney is the same as the original sale price. Even then, it's always possible that Disney occasionally does buybacks at below sale price...

Suddenly that screen-scraping program seems much more attractive. But I don't have the time right now to write one. I think I'll just keep pulling together the data for the last 6 months, which is almost done, and let people know the ROFR numbers may be slightly high because of trade-ins.

 

[dmunsil]

I don't know if this is right, but maybe it depends on the unit? The unit could be a studio, 1 bedroom, 2 bedroom, or 3 bedroom.

As near as I can figure, a Unit is a smallish chunk of the building that encompasses multiple rooms. They can come in different sizes, ranging from 28600 points to 40300 points in the case of the contracts I looked at for Villas at Wilderness Lodge. 40300 is 775 points/week (exactly), and there isn't any single room at VWL that averages 775 points/week.

 

[montrealdisneylovers]

I always get lost on the Orange Comptrollers website. Thank you so much for taking the time to update us on your findings.

 

[dmunsil]

Something else I meant to mention but keep forgetting about: if you try to search for foreclosures by looking for Grantee=DISNEY and DeedDocTax=0.70, for Old Key West you get a ton of hits, and those are pretty much all quitclaim deeds for the 2042-2057 period. They flow in constantly. There are probably a few foreclosures mixed in there, but I can't be bothered to sift through the massive number of quitclaims, so I'm only counting Warranty Deed in lieu of Foreclosure docs where the tax is over 0.70 for Old Key West.

 

[Nabas]

Each Unit has a different number of points; there is no consistency in how the percentage maps to points. In this case, to find out how many points are in the contract you have to look up the original deed. I just open up a new search window (Ctrl-click on "New Search") and type the grantor's name into the search box for "Either Party" to see the whole history.

In this case, you can see the original deed when they bought the property, which is for 160 points. You can see the mortgage, then the satisfaction one year later, which means they paid off the mortgage. Then you see the sale back to Disney. The strange thing is that going by the deed doc tax they sold it back for exactly what they paid (113/pt), which is astonishingly high for a resale. I wonder if there's some other way that Disney gets back contracts. Most of the contracts that went back to Disney that I investigated have a "normal" resale price.

This one is really interesting. Once again it's 160 points. This time, there's an original deed and mortgage, but no satisfaction. So they hadn't paid it off. They sold it back to Disney again for the same price they paid, but turned around and bought a larger amount of AKV (175 points) and got another mortgage. So it was a trade-in.

Hmmm... that suggests that some of the things I've been calling ROFRs are actually trade-ins. And it means that Disney apparently will do a trade-in. But where's the property that the first person bought? I suppose they might have traded in for VGC, Aulani, Hilton Head or Vero; those aren't tracked by Orange County. That's probably it.

Unfortunately, it means my ROFR numbers are all potentially off. Worse, it means in order to have accurate ROFR numbers, I'd need to track down the original deed for all of these and see the places where the sale price back to Disney is the same as the original sale price. Even then, it's always possible that Disney occasionally does buybacks at below sale price...

Suddenly that screen-scraping program seems much more attractive. But I don't have the time right now to write one. I think I'll just keep pulling together the data for the last 6 months, which is almost done, and let people know the ROFR numbers may be slightly high because of trade-ins.

Wow, thank you so much for tracking that down. I had no idea.

The first one is very interesting. For some reason, Disney agreed to buy it back for the original purchase price. Was there some sort of "Guest Relations" type issue? Perhaps that owner being compensated by effectively having their purchase refunded? Alternatively, as you suggest, is this a trade-in for (for example) Aulani? In either case, then I don't think this as a ROFR.

The second one seems more straightforward. For whatever reason, the buyer simply wanted to upgrade from 160 points to 175 points and Disney had them do it via a trade-in. As you note, clearly not a ROFR.

These suggest AKV is nearly ROFR-proof at this time. That certainly won't be the case in 12 months once Disney finally sells out AKV which, I believe will end up taking 7-8 years. Disney cannot be happy about that.

 

[dmunsil]

Unfortunately, it means my ROFR numbers are all potentially off.

Just out of curiosity, I checked all 16 deeds that I listed as being ROFRed at Boardwalk in April to see if any more of these trade-in/buy-back situations showed up. None of them looked at all like the Animal Kingdom ones. They all involved resale prices, and all but one were deeds that had either never had a mortgage or had been paid off for a long time. One of them was obviously the tail end of a long foreclosure process, but didn't have a "In Lieu of Foreclosure" deed. It was just a normal deed. However, it's clear Disney was in the late stages of foreclosing. Yet Disney ultimately took the property back and canceled the lien and paid a fairly normal (well, low - $59/pt) resale price for the property.

My guess is that she was able to get a bona-fide low-ball offer for the contract, and Disney ROFRed it and used the proceeds to pay off the loan. If that's true, then it does count as a ROFR, so I'm leaving it in the ROFR column.

 

[LisaS]

The two AKV ROFR contracts are very strange. I think I'm simply misunderstanding how to read the data and am hoping someone can correct me.

On the first one, the "Doc Deed Tax" was $126.00. With a tax rate of $0.70 per $100, this implies a purchase price of $18,000. However, it's "0.4911% in Unit 113A". I'm pretty sure 0.9823% corresponds to 160 points at AKV. Since this ROFR is half that, this implies it's for 80 points. But that price-per-point doesn't make any sense: $18,000 / 80 points = $225/point.

The second ROFR had a "Doc Deed Tax" of $156.80, corresponding to a purchase price of $22,400. However, it's "0.4429% in Unit 92B", suggesting 72 points, which leads to a price-per-point of $22,400 / 72 points = $311/point

Help! What am I doing wrong?

As others have already posted, units vary in size. Here is a Unit Map of Jambo House. As you can see, most of the units consist of two 2BR lockoffs or a GV but the smallest units contain three dedicated studios. Units 54 and 55 are the largest physically at three 2BR lockoffs but I don't know how the total points compare since that would require comparing the cost to book a GV every night of the year vs three 2BR lockoffs.

About the color coding: yellow indicates the Unit contains Value rooms, turquoise is for Units with Standard View rooms prior to the reclassification of some Savanna View rooms to Standard View, units containing a GV are in green, Units with Club Level rooms are purple, everything else is Savanna View prior to the reclassification.

 

[bdoleary]

Nice work! When I was waiting for ROFR I spent a lot of time on the Orange County website as well! Thanks for sharing.