Risk Assessment

[ZephyrHawk]

Reading this article got me thinking.

http://reason.com/archives/2011/04/12/fear-itself

Here's an excerpt for convenience.

To illustrate how bad people are at understanding minuscule risks, the two researchers conducted an experiment with Harvard and University of Chicago law students who were asked what they would be willing to pay to avoid a one-in-a-million cancer risk. They could check off $0, $25, $50, $100, $200, $400, and $800 or more. One set of students was merely asked the question while another was given a highly emotional description of how gruesome cancer can be and then asked. The unemotional group averaged about $60 to avoid a one-in-a-million risk of cancer, while the emotional group averaged $210, nearly four times more.

Sunstein and Zeckhauser find “many people will focus, much of the time, on the emotionally perceived severity of the outcome, rather than on its likelihood.” They add, “With respect to risks of injury or harm, vivid images and concrete pictures of disaster can ‘crowd out’ the cognitive activity required to conclude and consider the fact that the probability of disaster is really small.” Activating the emotional centers in the amygdala shuts down the operation of the executive functions of the pre-frontal cortex.

...

So how much should someone pay to avoid a one-in-a-million risk? A “micromort” is defined as a one-in-a-million risk of dying. Let’s look at cancer. First, keep in mind that Americans have a high probability of contracting cancer. For example, an American man has a 44 percent lifetime risk of developing cancer and a 23 percent risk of dying of it. An American woman’s lifetime risk of contracting cancer is 38 percent and her risk of dying of it is 20 percent.

According to Carnegie Mellon University’s Death Risk Rankings, Americans’ average risk of dying in the next year is 8,931 micromorts. That is, out of 1,000,000 Americans alive today, 991,069 will be alive next year. With regard to cancer, Americans face an annual risk of 2,075 micromorts, which means out of 1,000,000, some 997,025 will not have died of cancer in the next year. So what does a reduction of a one-in-a-million risk of cancer amount to? Instead of 997,025 people not dying of cancer in the next year, 997,026 will not have died of cancer.

I have to admit that my initial reaction was to pay as much as it took to get rid of even a million to one chance, and I consider myself to be someone who does not buy into the popular culture of fear-mongering.

So, what would you pay?

 

[Pakey]

Since I've been battling advanced stage cancer for 5 years now, I can tell you that I would pay whatever it takes. I would give up my home, my career, and perhaps a child or two (just kidding) to be healthy.

Before I had it, I probably wouldn't have given up much because, of course, I never thought it would happen to me.

 

[Rora]

I voted $400.

 

[marybet]

I voted $25 because why pay more if you can get the coverage for $25? It doesn't say the more you pay the less your risk.

 

[BCDisneyFanatic]

I would never pay large sums of money to avoid a risk with the odds of 1 in a million. I take risks every day that have a much higher chance of killing me than that, and don't think twice about it (i.e., driving a car, jay walking, eating red meat, etc.). Something is going to get us in the end...it's inevitable.

I think that if you spend your life worrying about a one in a million occurrence then you'll never really get the chance to enjoy the life you have!

 

[LuvOrlando]

Interesting interpretation of the info. The only problem with this is the math tends to obscure the human component of loss. One death in a million might not be a big deal to some actuary punching numbers BUT that one person in a million might be the sole caregiver to a bunch of kids, or someone who runs a volunteer social service program which could make it a significant societal loss. Also, numbers only show what you want them to show, its all in the questions asked. If you only measure loss by death then you will only see that particular thing measured, what about the variants of loss that are not death... it gets tricky then doesn't it? What do you include, what do you leave out? Also, the numbers obscure the relevance to the individual, sure having a 1 in a million chance sounds easy breezy if you are in the 999,999,999 group but somebody has to be that one and when it's you it pretty much rots.

Numbers are useful, but only to a point. Look at the housing crisis, I bet someone somewhere was saying there was no chance things would end the way they have, but the perfect storm did happen and now there is nothing we can do about it.

People intuitively know this stuff which is why they react the way they do, human beings are usually extremely rational, driven by self preservation. Sometimes they behave in ways that the number crunchers might like to say are irrational but that's not it at all, at least not to me. To me the number crunchers simply forget how limited their data can be, on the other hand the human mind is amazing.

 

[Aisling]

I'd pay the $400, even though 1 in a million are pretty good odds of not getting cancer. Still, $400 is a small price to pay to make those odds even better. There's enough out there that can kill me, so if I can get rid of one of them, I'd feel better, especially cancer.

 

[kaytieeldr]

Well, based on LuvOrlando's opening sentences, I wouldn't pay anything. Nobody depends on me for support, nobody would ultimately miss me.

But seriously, folks - after reading just the first post I did some calculating. There are 8,760 hours in a year; divide that into a million and you come up with 114 years. Slightly less, really, because I didn't account for 27 Leap Days. Since I'm never going to make it to 113 anyway, I'd be willing to take the chance. On the other hand, I'd feel guilty paying nothing.

 

[Feralpeg]

Having already had cancer, I'd pay. Prior to my diagnosis, I probably would not have, but who'd have thought that an otherwise healthy 31 year old woman would be diagnosed with breast cancer. Kind of shook up my world! Now, I believe most things are possible.

 

[LuvOrlando]

Well, based on LuvOrlando's opening sentences, I wouldn't pay anything. Nobody depends on me for support, nobody would ultimately miss me.

But seriously, folks - after reading just the first post I did some calculating. There are 8,760 hours in a year; divide that into a million and you come up with 114 years. Slightly less, really, because I didn't account for 27 Leap Days. Since I'm never going to make it to 113 anyway, I'd be willing to take the chance. On the other hand, I'd feel guilty paying nothing.

That's not what I meant, everybody counts

 

[luvmarypoppins]

I picked $400. I have cancer and there is no way I would want my dh and my 3 ds to have to go through what I have been through and who knows what else will happen in the future.

 

[tvguy]

Unfortunately, the reality of life is, no matter what you pay to eliminate the risk of cancer, then the risk of something else killing you goes up.

 

[BillSears]

I'm a zero guy. A 1 in a million situation isn't worth worrying about to me.

However I'd happily pay thousands to reduce the chance of cancer to zero. Or even to reduce overall cancer risks to 1 in a million.

 

[minkydog]

I would never pay large sums of money to avoid a risk with the odds of 1 in a million. I take risks every day that have a much higher chance of killing me than that, and don't think twice about it (i.e., driving a car, jay walking, eating red meat, etc.). Something is going to get us in the end...it's inevitable.

I think that if you spend your life worrying about a one in a million occurrence then you'll never really get the chance to enjoy the life you have!

My thoughts exactly. I'm a lot more likely to get in an accident, contract pneumonia, break my hip, or have an allergic reaction.