It will depend on what capacity they are running it at I would think. If they're doing 1 party per vehicle, that will reduce capacity meaningfully. If they're doing 2 parties per vehicle (likely with plexiglass in between rows) then it won't reduce capacity that much.
I remember folks running the math on throughput back when it first opened, and even 25% capacity would be well above the throughput the ride can manage in a day, particularly with shortened hours, and that's not factoring any capacity constraints. The one good thing is that all the DCA starting Parkhoppers won't be eligible for first drop, and you won't have APer's who show up at open just for sole purpose of getting a BG and then bouncing. But I don't think that will help all that much. Most people weren't showing up at 7:30 for the 8am drop back in the regular days.
My guess is your odds of getting a BG in the first drop will be pretty similar to before for the opening drop, maybe slightly worse, and not good at all for the 1pm drop.