Resale review - Updated REVIEW posting

[gtrist4life]

Pulled the listings off of the Timeshare store and after crunching the numbers here (for your pondering pleasure) is what the sample shows:

In order of fewest to highest number of contracts listed

Villas at Wilderness Lodge
Number of contracts: 6
Avg number of points per contract for sale: 157
Avg offering point price: $78.85

Hilton Head Island
Number of contracts: 7
Avg number of points per contract for sale: 160
Avg offering point price: $68.19

Beach Club Villas
Number of contracts: 8
Avg number of points per contract for sale: 231
Avg offering point price: $86.40

Vero Beach
Number of contracts: 14
Avg number of points per contract for sale: 201
Avg offering point price: $68.52

Saratoga Springs Resort
Number of contracts: 16
Avg number of points per contract for sale: 156
Avg offering point price: $81.48

BoardWalk Villas
Number of contracts: 19
Avg number of points per contract for sale: 209
Avg offering point price: $82.52

Old Key West Resort
Number of contracts: 39
Avg number of points per contract for sale: 311
Avg offering point price: $75.22

I know this is just one sample on one day, but I was surprised that Saratoga's average point price is lower than BWV and BC. I guess for this snapshot, this measure, location wins out over number of years.

Peace,
G4L

 

[stampinshauna]

I think Saratoga is also lower because of the current promotion. If you can currently buy it direct from Disney at around $83 a point, resellers have to list it lower than that.

 

[LIFERBABE]

I know this is just one sample on one day, but I was surprised that Saratoga's average point price is lower than BWV and BC. I guess for this snapshot, this measure, location wins out over number of years.

I think it has more to do with current ROFR levels and the fact that DVD is selling sold out resorts for $92 ppt.

There are very few (if any) SSR contracts out there that didnt sell without some type of incentive, and I know, the most I paid per point at SSR was $82 and many of them were more between 74-78 dollars.

 

[Smile]

Thanks for taking to time to gather this data. It's very helpful.

aw: aw: aw:

 

[Credit Man]

Interesting! Thanks for the effort.

 

[gtrist4life]

No problem crunching this, just had some system down time and wanted to refresh my brain on how Excel pivot tables work. Only took about ten minutes.
I'll probably do this from time to time and post, maybe once a quarter or so.

Great point about the current promotions, that will definitely be a factor on resale activity-pricing.

Peace,
G4L

 

[las3888]

I also want to thank you for the data...I will send this to DH! We have WL and BWV contracts (3 in total, all resales), so it's nice to keep an eye on what's going on out there. TRYING hard not to buy anymore!

Lisa

 

[MiaSRN62]

I guess for this snapshot, this measure, location wins out over number of years.

Not sure location is the "only" explanation for this ? I could be wrong, but in addition to all the incentives offered for SSR as mentioned above, in reference to OKW and it's resales, it could be related to the age and size of this resort. OKW has been around longer than the other DVC resorts. In addition, OKW (as well as SSR) are (will be) much larger resorts which equates to many more contracts sold. So I would feel that a bit of the resale values are associated with supply and demand. Of course this is just my theory. But VWL, BCV and BWV are smaller resorts (the first two being much smaller) and I would feel resale contracts are more difficult to come by with these smaller resorts, thus pushing the resale price up a bit ? OKW Members have been around longer and it's more likely there would be more contracts coming into the resale pool, thus more supply vs demand ?
Thanks for compiling the info G4L.

 

[JimMIA]

Thanks for the interesting analysis...but...

Let's not lose sight of the fact that the only number that matters is not the listing price, selling price, etc.

The ONLY number that matters is the price which will clear ROFR. If you don't clear ROFR, nothing else about the contract matters at all.

 

[erikthewise]

Thanks for the interesting data.
Keep in mind that not every resale gets listed. Some sell immediately because the agency has buyers ready who have requested a certain type of contract. This probably keeps many of the smaller contracts off the list. I'm not sure if that has any effect on the accuracy of the average prices.

 

[gtrist4life]

Erikthewise,
Good point, I appreciate you helping make clear the point that this is just one sample that doesn't pull all available contracts for sale into the picture.

JimMIA,
Very good point, but to elaborate just a bit further,
Obviously your stating "The ONLY number that matters is the price which will clear ROFR" is primarily directed at the buyer.

On the seller side, ultimately the only price that matters is the listing price that generates an offer. After the offer takes place, either it is sold back to Disney or to the prospective buyer. However, the importance of the price which will clear ROFR to the seller should not be underestimated as it will and IMO should influence the listing price to encourage re-sale buying activity.

Just some thoughts, good discourse from all.
Peace G4L

 

[JimMIA]

Obviously your stating "The ONLY number that matters is the price which will clear ROFR" is primarily directed at the buyer.

On the seller side, ultimately the only price that matters is the listing price that generates an offer.

Yes, exactly...and that's something buyers sometimes don't realize.

Sellers usually don't care WHO they sell to, as long as they sell quickly and get their money. For that reason, sellers will often take a price considerably lower than what will clear ROFR. I've seen contacts sell for $5-6 below what it would take to clear ROFR...which makes the Disney people happy, but not the prospective buyers.

ETA - On the current crop of OKW resales, for example, there are at least a dozen listings which look to me like they are priced too low to pass ROFR. I could be wrong, of course -- maybe Disney already has more OKW points than they want -- but a number of those prices look way too low to me.

 

[gtrist4life]

Pulled the listings off of the Timeshare store today 3-9-06 - here (for your pondering pleasure) is what the sample shows:

In order of fewest to highest number of contracts listed

Beach Club Villas
Number of contracts: 2
Avg number of points per contract for sale: 280
Avg offering point price: $86.16

Hilton Head Island
Number of contracts: 6
Avg number of points per contract for sale: 83
Avg offering point price: $70.44

Villas at Wilderness Lodge
Number of contracts: 8
Avg number of points per contract for sale: 175
Avg offering point price: $85.90

Saratoga Springs Resort
Number of contracts: 10
Avg number of points per contract for sale: 192
Avg offering point price: $83.92

Vero Beach
Number of contracts: 11
Avg number of points per contract for sale: 214
Avg offering point price: $67.60


BoardWalk Villas
Number of contracts: 16
Avg number of points per contract for sale: 216
Avg offering point price: $83.35

Old Key West Resort
Number of contracts: 32
Avg number of points per contract for sale: 267
Avg offering point price: $76.02

Peace,
G4L

 

[byoung]

Thanks for noting.

 

[T.E. Yeary]

Good analysis! I'm sure alot of folks here will appreciate your hard work, as do I.

Sincerely,
Tom

 

[Poorman]

Pulled the listings off of the Timeshare store today 3-9-06 - here (for your pondering pleasure) is what the sample shows:

In order of fewest to highest number of contracts listed

Beach Club Villas
Number of contracts: 2
Avg number of points per contract for sale: 280
Avg offering point price: $86.16

Hilton Head Island
Number of contracts: 6
Avg number of points per contract for sale: 83
Avg offering point price: $70.44

Villas at Wilderness Lodge
Number of contracts: 8
Avg number of points per contract for sale: 175
Avg offering point price: $85.90

Saratoga Springs Resort
Number of contracts: 10
Avg number of points per contract for sale: 192
Avg offering point price: $83.92

Vero Beach
Number of contracts: 11
Avg number of points per contract for sale: 214
Avg offering point price: $67.60


BoardWalk Villas
Number of contracts: 16
Avg number of points per contract for sale: 216
Avg offering point price: $83.35

Old Key West Resort
Number of contracts: 32
Avg number of points per contract for sale: 267
Avg offering point price: $76.02

Peace,
G4L

Now G4L your assignment,should you choose to take it,is find the average SELLING price

 

[gtrist4life]

Poorman,

If that information was easily obtained, it wouldn't be a problem.
Unfortunately, I don't know of a central location that stores selling data.

Maybe in the future....

Peace,
G4L

 

[gtrist4life]

After one week or so since the AKV was announced, I decided to update the resale review. As of today 10-19-06 - here (for your pondering pleasure) is what the sample (from Timeshare Store listings) shows:

In order of fewest to highest number of contracts listed

Hilton Head Island
Number of contracts: 5
Avg number of points per contract for sale: 150
Avg offering point price: $74

Beach Club Villas
Number of contracts: 8
Avg number of points per contract for sale: 199
Avg offering point price: $95

BoardWalk Villas
Number of contracts: 13
Avg number of points per contract for sale: 230
Avg offering point price: $86

Villas at Wilderness Lodge
Number of contracts: 13
Avg number of points per contract for sale: 207
Avg offering point price: $85

Vero Beach
Number of contracts: 23
Avg number of points per contract for sale: 183
Avg offering point price: $70

Old Key West Resort
Number of contracts: 23
Avg number of points per contract for sale: 316
Avg offering point price: $78

Saratoga Springs Resort
Number of contracts: 27
Avg number of points per contract for sale: 202
Avg offering point price: $85

As a comparison of total contracts for sale
In Dec last year (1st post) there were 103 contracts for sale
In March this year there were 85 contracts for sale
Today there were 112 contracts for sale.

Peace,
G4L

 

[MILLZ]

crib notes version

so will i be happy buying the ssr contract from disney why do they need to discount so much

 

[Poorman]

And after 7 months you still don't have the average "selling" price.

I believe the extra contracts out there reflect the economy.

Less money is floating around.


Good work....