Resale Market in 10 Years - Little Ole Lady Planning

[DVCERSINCEDAY1]

You're absolutely right here. I am was looking for confirmation of my thinking, which although some people say "nay"...when you think about their post a bit more, their assumptions follow through lead back to my original conclusion...that if I pay $80/today, in 2020, I'll get back $80...albeit the money will be worth only $40.

Also, to suggest that in 2020, no one will want to own at BWV or BCV or VWL for 22 years at $40/point in today's dollars seems very myopic.

 

[lowepg]

You're absolutely right here. I am was looking for confirmation of my thinking, which although some people say "nay"...when you think about their post a bit more, their assumptions follow through lead back to my original conclusion...that if I pay $80/today, in 2020, I'll get back $80...albeit the money will be worth only $40.

Also, to suggest that in 2020, no one will want to own at BWV or BCV or VWL for 22 years at $40/point in today's dollars seems very myopic.

I agree. Even its in LAST year, the contract will be worth the value of a deluxe disney accomodation (minus closing and maintenance cost). I shudder to think what the rack rate will be for a villa in 2040

 

[bobbiwoz]

If this were me, BCV is the one I would buy.
Bobbi

 

[DVCERSINCEDAY1]

Geez, good to see a few folks who agree with my thinking here. I have an offer at BCV and VWL at Disney now for ROFR. My excellent deal on BWV was just ROFR'd by Disney, so I continue to look there. I believe that these three resorts are the creme de la creme, and that I cannot go too badly wrong buying these today thinking I can resell if I need the money in 2020.

 

[JimMIA]

I bought mine with the theory that when I sold them they would be worthless.

Don't buy if you NEED the salvage value.

Ah...sweet reason! It cuts through the fog and introduces common sense into the conversation!

 

[Deb & Bill]

I'm buying some contracts on the resale market currently. I'm 59 and may want to sell these in 12 years or so. So, assuming I sell in 2020, can I expect to get back my original investment then... considering inflation and the declining years remaining on the contracts (expire 2042). For, example, if I pay $80/point today, can I expect at least $80/point when I resell in 2020?

I think so. What do you think?

If they keep changing the rules they they are doing now, you might not get much of anything.

 

[JimMIA]

My excellent deal on BWV was just ROFR'd by Disney, so I continue to look there.

Reality check. That wasn't YOUR excellent deal. That was DVC's excellent deal, and they thank you very much for making it possible.

In resale, the only number that matters is the number which clears ROFR. Anything that doesn't clear is meaningless.

 

[DVCERSINCEDAY1]

I was using another poster's assumption about linearity.

I personnally sold my original 150 OKW points for more than I paid for them after about 10 years. And, now, another five years later, the price has only gone upfor these 150 points. Again, I believe it is a reasonable and even conservative assumption to buy contracts today with the assumption of getting the same number of dollars back for them in 2020. I acknowledge that the money will have approximately 50% of its original spending power then. This is not a throw-away investment as some have posted in this thread. But, I really don't think anyone would have bought a contract running to 2042 if he/she really thought that it would be worthless in year 2020.

 

[DVCERSINCEDAY1]

Right again about the ROFR'd deal. My shrewd negotiations paid off handsomely for Disney and DVCbyResales. I am not being quite as shrewd my deals under review at Disney now.

 

[rinkwide]

...40 years from now how much will a night cost in a DVC resort on a cash basis?...

No one knows for sure, but nearly forty years ago a night at the Contemporary cost about 30 bucks.

With that in mind I'd guess that loaded DVC I contracts will still sell for around $100 per point in 2041 -- which might sound like a lot of money but it's not.

 

[JimMIA]

Right again about the ROFR'd deal. My shrewd negotiations paid off handsomely for Disney and DVCbyResales. I am not being quite as shrewd my deals under review at Disney now.

Don't feel bad. I outsmart myself all the time!