Resale - BLT vs Wilderness Lodge

[4luv2cdisney]

I wonder if they'll offer an extension at one of the resorts so they don't have three offline in remodel since BRV, BCV, and BWV all expire the same year.

That's what I'm wondering about. To shut down BC and BWV at the same time.....?! I realize they still have non-DVC portion. Then, if they basically "replaced them" they'd be selling 2 resorts next door to each other at the same time as well. It will be interesting to see.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

This is a good point. Extensions were most likely a one-time attempt that they realized really does not work to DVC's advantage. In 2043, what does Disney do? Sell just 15 year contracts at OKW for a very small price, or sell 50 year contracts and have yet even more offset contracts once 2058 comes along? Just seems like a bit of a headache.

It is possible that BRV gets sold so that its expiration falls around CCV, but the same issue comes up for the people who do not take the extension in that case. It is probably just easiest to let these contracts expire, remodel the resort, and then adjust the point structure so that they are able to sell 200k more points and make enough extra profit to more than offset the cost of the renovation and downtime compared to just extending the old contracts.

I would think that they will be able to ROFR and resell just about everything at OKW by 2042. There will be a few holdouts for sure, but they could likely strike some sort of deal with them or just let them expire and do just that....resell 15 year contracts. I think you'd only have to be a little cheaper than rental minus dues and there will be buyers. I know it is not appealing to all, but think about people who are just retiring and will finally have time to travel, but don't want a 50 year commitment. Or young people who want "in" but can't afford a huge pricetag and figure 15 years will get their kids to adulthood and that's enough for them. These threads often turn to "end date" discussions and while I'd like a longer contract for my kids to use, even a 2042 contract takes my kids to 40+! If I bought BLT, my kids will be almost 60 and just past 60 when the contract expires and I'm pretty sure I'll no longer be traveling to Disney. The bigger concern is resale, but I think there will be plenty of value and buyers for 10-15 year contracts. After that, be ready to use them, rent them or basically give them away.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I wonder if they'll offer an extension at one of the resorts so they don't have three offline in remodel since BRV, BCV, and BWV all expire the same year.

No reason for them all to be offline. The resorts will revert back to Disney (or WDW) who owns the land and if I understand correctly will take over all the improvements on the land. They can just rent out all the rooms should they wish or close down in chunks.

 

[Ben E N]

I would think that they will be able to ROFR and resell just about everything at OKW by 2042. There will be a few holdouts for sure, but they could likely strike some sort of deal with them or just let them expire and do just that....resell 15 year contracts. I think you'd only have to be a little cheaper than rental minus dues and there will be buyers. I know it is not appealing to all, but think about people who are just retiring and will finally have time to travel, but don't want a 50 year commitment. Or young people who want "in" but can't afford a huge pricetag and figure 15 years will get their kids to adulthood and that's enough for them. These threads often turn to "end date" discussions and while I'd like a longer contract for my kids to use, even a 2042 contract takes my kids to 40+! If I bought BLT, my kids will be almost 60 and just past 60 when the contract expires and I'm pretty sure I'll no longer be traveling to Disney. The bigger concern is resale, but I think there will be plenty of value and buyers for 10-15 year contracts. After that, be ready to use them, rent them or basically give them away.

I wonder about the OKW piece. If they were looking to ROFR all the 2042 contracts, one would assume they would have started by now. Instead, they are letting some pass through at $65 per point. I am sure they are doing what they want to do with them. I agree with your thinking. Get a contract that you are happy with, not assuming anything in terms of it being extended, or being able to sell it for a profit. It will be interesting to see what happens with those resorts in 2042, but I would not be able to put any money on what I think will actually happen. It is all absolutely just speculation.

I think you have your plans right in getting a contract that will take your kids into their 40's. Either you have grandkids that can enjoy it for a bit at that point, or the odds of ever having them are greatly reduced. For me, a BLT contract does exactly that. My youngest will be 45 when it runs out. At that point, it it up to them to decide what to do with Disney.

 

[Wakey]

The OKW extension didn't go well. I doubt they'll do it. I may want to sell my contract in 25 years. It will have over a decade left and still be worth a good sum, or I'll have over a decade of point rentals. I'd have nada with a Boardwalk or VWL if they don't extend. Losing a lot of money is not an option for me.

 

[Dean]

The OKW extension didn't go well. I doubt they'll do it. I may want to sell my contract in 25 years. It will have over a decade left and still be worth a good sum, or I'll have over a decade of point rentals. I'd have nada with a Boardwalk or VWL if they don't extend. Losing a lot of money is not an option for me.

It didn't, my opinion is they chose the wrong resort AND did it poorly. They also likely did it too early.

The years on the backend have the lowest value and the highest risk. There is no guarantee they will have any real value or be marketable if one wants to sell. One should take the RTU ending into account in terms of usability and value but there will always be options if one is out at 2042 and if there isn't, that also likely means one wouldn't want to own at that time. While they may or may not offer an extension later, I'd say it's roughly 50/50 though the chances of it being a reasonable cost are likely about 10% of that 50%.

 

[AtomicFrog]

While I'm looking at other resorts, this was a great read with lots of great info...