Remember how much can happen in a few weeks...

[smmco]

worst thing that could happen another person comes down with and you are trapped on ship/somewhere for at least 2 more weeks

Meh. I've been through worst things than that in my life.

 

[brentm77]

The UK study that got the US clamping down can be read by everyone now.

Optimism is lovely but it isn't necessarily realistic.

This guy sums it up well for people who don't want to read the whole thing.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1239975682643357696

The predictions in the report likely contain significant errors: https://necsi.edu/review-of-ferguson-et-al-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions

In addition to the methodology errors, even a slight change in the assumed variables creates drastic swings in the predicted outcomes (will post link later today, when not on my phone). Since the variables are based on assumptions, the reports value depends in the accuracy of those assumptions, which are questionable at this point. Furthermore, if the report is accurate, humanity in a ridiculous amount of trouble, since we will be forced to choose between millions of deaths or bringing commerce to its knees for a year or more, which could lead to the suffering of billions of people and significant death in itself (the world generally has about 30 days of food supply on hand at any time). I don't know what we are even supposed to do with that kind of information, which gives us even more reason to make sure there is sound scientific reason for its predictions, and thank goodness, there is reason to have significant doubts.

Also, looking at the data coming out of Washington, there is reason to believe that acquiring significantly more testing has not shown significantly more cases as people had predicted. Furthermore, despite being significantly behind isolation policies, their hospitals were not overwhelmed as predicted. Yes, we could still easily see that in the U.S., and I support and practice social distancing, but I remain optimistic that this will develop differently in many regions than it has in places like Italy.

In addition, there are new test manufacturers coming online (one in Utah yesterday says it can now produce 50,000 test per day) and even promising cures under research in multiple countries.

Add to that the fact that we still don't know how seasonal changes will effect the virus.

And some countries are now seeing cured patients outpacing new infections.

I work in a job where I am reviewing the data daily and basically living in the virus news all day, every day. I am not burying my head in the sand.

I remain optimistic, but cautious. Let's assess mid-April and the next several months and see which of us was more accurate. Only time will tell. I could easily be wrong, but outside following the medical guidance, it is outside of our control and assuming the worst will happen will only contribute to additional anxiety and stress (ironically making us more vulnerable to the virus).

 

[tidefan]

Just one thing to consider. As we see an exponential growth of testing, we will see an accompanying exponential growth of "identified" cases. Note that this does not mean that these cases did not exist before, just rather that we are identifying them now. Part of what you will see is that in a few weeks time, this will "level off" for no other reason than testing will have been in effect for the period of time that people have had the disease. I think that it's been here a lot longer than people realize. For instance, we were talking at our University about potential seasonality and the question came up to see if Miami (where it's 80ish most of the year round) has a defined flu season (answer: they do). However, in researching articles, we came across this one from right around New Year's.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/health...0200108-smylr2hx5zhc7fnewajgajidfa-story.html
Take a look at the 3rd and 4th paragraphs in particular (which is a bit foreboding)...

Health officials had warned the 2019-2020 flu season could be one of the worst in history. Although the season tends to peak in February, in South Florida, doctors report they are not only treating two strains of the flu, they are also sending people to the hospital with complications such as pneumonia.

“About 80 percent of the cases we are seeing involve some type of respiratory illness,” said Paolo Coll, a family medicine doctor with Memorial Urgent Care Clinic in Pembroke Pines. While the flu symptoms tend to clear up in one to two weeks, the cough tends to linger, he said.[\QUOTE]

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Absolutely. Some of the countries with low mortality also are testing people with limited or light symptoms. Not happening here yet in the US.

I do think a normal summer cruise season isn't likely. Small islands simply don't have the beds and respirators if they go epidemic. They will stay closed.

 

[FigmentSpark]

Just one thing to consider. As we see an exponential growth of testing, we will see an accompanying exponential growth of "identified" cases. Note that this does not mean that these cases did not exist before, just rather that we are identifying them now. Part of what you will see is that in a few weeks time, this will "level off" for no other reason than testing will have been in effect for the period of time that people have had the disease. I think that it's been here a lot longer than people realize. For instance, we were talking at our University about potential seasonality and the question came up to see if Miami (where it's 80ish most of the year round) has a defined flu season (answer: they do). However, in researching articles, we came across this one from right around New Year's.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/health...0200108-smylr2hx5zhc7fnewajgajidfa-story.html
Take a look at the 3rd and 4th paragraphs in particular (which is a bit foreboding)...

That has been my suspicion, too. Articles where my mom lives talked about hospitals seeing so many severe cases of 'flu' in Dec. that they were only allowing those who were sick to sit in the waiting rooms. 11 hour waits were not uncommon at that time. My mom had one of the versions (was not tested). It was in her lungs and had her knocked off her feet for a few weeks. She said it was unlike any other lung infection (including pneumonia) that she'd ever had.

That was January in an area of Canada that does medical research. So... I wonder... Yet they are just seeing confirmed cases this month, which could simply be that they are now testing for it, whereas they couldn't test for an unknown pathogen.