I think all of them have been a little off lately, even Easywdw.
If you really want to know which site to use for your vacation planning do what I have been doing... go every day to Touring Plans and look at their "How we did" section and then compare that to all of the crowd calendars for that particular day.
Yes, in order for this to work one has to buy into the numbers Touring Plans uses in this section. Disney does not release actual numbers so, I don't know where Touring Plans is coming up with their data but, I would think they must be getting it from somewhere fairly reputable or else they wouldn't be posting it.
Maybe they are using actual posted wait times for the rides through out the day at each park to determine the crowds.. who knows.
I do know this.. Touring Plans is off a little every day, which seems reasonable, I mean they aren't fortune tellers.. they are basically just giving it their best educated guess. Easywdw is pretty good with overall crowd numbers but, I have noticed the most recommended park many times recently has ended up being the most crowded park of the day. Yes, this is according to Touring Plans data and they are a direct competitor of Easywdw but, that doesn't mean they are wrong.
Many people don't want to hear this because Easywdw has a very loyal following and many don't want to hear anything other than it is the most reliable but, I wonder if perhaps Josh is becoming a victim of his own success?
I think Easywdw is a brilliant site and it is FREE... you cannot beat that! I would listen to Josh above pretty much anyone else when it comes to planning my WDW vacation but, what if more and more people start taking his advice.. eventually all those wonderful little WDW nuggets and secrets become less valuable as more people start to use them. If more people are going to the most recommended park every day, that park will become busier and busier, to the point where it could actually become a busiest park as people flock to the one park they are told will be the quietest.
I think for years this wasn't an issue as most WDW guests never bothered to do a lot of planning so those who did their research definitely had a leg up. However, with the arrival of FP+ many Disney guests are forced to plan in a way they never had to before, as they now have to know which park they will be in each day to make their FP selections. So.. many (not all) will be looking for a calendar or a site to tell them what park is best on which day and chances are these "non planners" will be looking for a FREE site and not want to pay the fee for a site like Touring Plans. In my opinion Easywdw is the best FREE site there is and Josh is getting a very good reputation with his analysis for each day and the way he spells it out in a way that makes perfect sense. It is sort of a weird thing where the more popular his site becomes and the more people listen to him, the less reliable his advice will be when it comes to predicting the slowest park for each day. Odd I know but, it isn't an indictment of Easywdw, in my opinion it is more about the secret getting out.
Many people disagree with the idea that these sites are actually somewhat influencing crowd flow. This is just a theory I have, obviously I am no expert or can't prove any of my thoughts here. I just think it makes sense. I don't think it would take a huge shift in overall guests using these sites to make the difference between a park being the least crowded on any given day to being the most crowded park on that day.
I certainly don't want to step on anyone's toes here, these are just thoughts.
