RCCL CEO Says Cruising Will Not Begin Until Cases Begin To Decrease

[Intr3pid]

Sorry if already posted. Yes I know RCCL is not Disney, but they are more likely to restart before DCL. Two of the things that stand out to me are testing/treatments aren't curving the spread as anticipated, scale of the spread has made restart impossible, vaccines are a game changer and cruising will not restart until cases decline.

This is the video from a month ago. He would know by now that vaccines aren't the end and be all when half the population isn't ready to take it.

He still needs to plan for a world where the virus will remain among us in some shape and form.

 

[Cheburashka]

I think before the vaccine results were announced and we started moving towards approval, there was more of an appetite in the industry to find a way to resume operations mid pandemic because there was no end in sight. Now that herd immunity through vaccines feels achievable in the foreseeable future I think the cruiselines are less interested in resuming while the pandemic rages on.

Or more likely, they know that the political winds are no longer blowing in their favor.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

The issue with testing and community spread is that you can be negative the day you're exposed, and positive 3 days later. Even with daily testing, that is 3 days in a closed environment possibly spreading it.

Hawaii is doing strict inbound testing, but also indoor dining is heavily restricted, as are most indoor activities, and thus they can have tourists come in while still maintaining fairly strict protocols. But they have an island, not a ship.

 

[spiders]

I still strongly believe that proof of vaccination is ultimately going to be required to cruise.

Regardless, out of the things the stock market has done that to me show a disconnect from reality -- RCL stands out the most. Unfortunately, I bought the stupid stock when it was $120 something. I saw it go down to $25 and bought more. Then I sold it all at $50-55 and counted my blessings that the lower priced purchases helped offset some of my losses. This guy at work still holds onto a lot of shares and is talking about buying more. I just don't understand how they can be trading at where they are considering they have absolutely no revenue and at this time, no concrete date to have one.

 

[brentm77]

I still strongly believe that proof of vaccination is ultimately going to be required to cruise.

Regardless, out of the things the stock market has done that to me show a disconnect from reality -- RCL stands out the most. Unfortunately, I bought the stupid stock when it was $120 something. I saw it go down to $25 and bought more. Then I sold it all at $50-55 and counted my blessings that the lower priced purchases helped offset some of my losses. This guy at work still holds onto a lot of shares and is talking about buying more. I just don't understand how they can be trading at where they are considering they have absolutely no revenue and at this time, no concrete date to have one.

The stock market prices for the future. The future for cruising is likely very good if they survive the pandemic. RCL will almost certainly find a way to survive. I have heard some experts describe the post-pandemic economy as another Roaring Twenties. Summer vacation bookings are already booming this year. I can only imagine cruising will be in very hot demand once the virus is no longer a concern. Some people will have money saved up and will be ready for the escape. Others will put it on the cards. The market has factored this into the price already.

 

[jane01jp]

The stock market prices for the future. The future for cruising is likely very good if they survive the pandemic. RCL will almost certainly find a way to survive. I have heard some experts describe the post-pandemic economy as another Roaring Twenties. Summer vacation bookings are already booming this year. I can only imagine cruising will be in very hot demand once the virus is no longer a concern. Some people will have money saved up and will be ready for the escape. Others will put it on the cards. The market has factored this into the price already.

I think stocks in general are in for a good run. Massive increases in fiscal stimulus, combined with likely direct federal subsidization of state and local governments should see to that.

I have noticed huge price inflation in vacation homes and luxury RVs as well.

 

[jane01jp]

I just read that two gorillas at the San Diego zoo tested positive for the coronavirus.

 

[DisneYE]

This could be a game changer, going into trials today

https://www.thejc.com/news/uk/could-this-israeli-s-anti-viral-nasal-spray-save-the-world-1.510530

 

[otten]

This isn’t good news for Alaska 2021. Not really a surprise but still not good news

https://www.citynews1130.com/2021/01/12/limited-covid-19-vaccine-supply-bc/

 

[jane01jp]

Tony Blair says it will. take 2-3 years to beat the virus, and is pushing for vaccine passports. In the US, our government will probably outsource its push for this to private corporations.

Blair said that the requirement for a Covid Pass should “at least” be required “in order to travel and probably for everything from attending an O2 concert to the FA Cup final”.

“This crisis isn’t ending soon, and the economic and health damage of prolonged lockdown is frightening,” he wrote, claiming that it may take up to two or three years to beat the virus.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Honestly, it's a fair assessment by Blair. You have the very real issue that many countries will not get mass vaccination in 2021, or possibly ever. The timeline for a full run of the illness is not going to be shortened by the vaccine; the vaccine is just going to mitigate suffering among the industrialized nations through the run.

 

[belle032]

This isn’t good news for Alaska 2021. Not really a surprise but still not good news

https://www.citynews1130.com/2021/01/12/limited-covid-19-vaccine-supply-bc/

We have an Alaskan sailing booked for this September on Norwegian. DH said just this morning he thinks we should postpone it and I agreed, as much as I didn't want to. But we'll wait for NCL to do any kind of announcement before doing anything ourselves. I gave it a 50/50 shot of happening a few months ago, with much depending on Canada. Now I'll be shocked if anything sails in Alaska this year. And with the season being so short, if they aren't up and running in some capacity by May/June, it's not going to happen in 2021.

 

[DCLCruiseFan09]

Vaccines are available to snowbirds in Florida (these guys cannot receive it here yet). It says a lot about how available they are.

Unfortunately, A lot of snowbirds are technically Florida residents (They establish residency here because of the lower taxes) so they count even though the Governor isn't technically "vaccinating snowbirds".

Its a whole... thing. (don't get me started.)

 

[mevelandry]

Unfortunately, A lot of snowbirds are technically Florida residents (They establish residency here because of the lower taxes) so they count even though the Governor isn't technically "vaccinating snowbirds".

Its a whole... thing. (don't get me started.)

I doubt they establish residency over there since they are Canadians. This is what surprises me. They are Canadians yet they can be vaccinated in the USA.

 

[SirDuff]

Unfortunately, A lot of snowbirds are technically Florida residents (They establish residency here because of the lower taxes) so they count even though the Governor isn't technically "vaccinating snowbirds".

Its a whole... thing. (don't get me started.)

There may be some but my family have not established residency there (we're Canadians). My dad, aunt, and uncle, all received emails offering them the vaccine (email assumed that they were either in Florida or could/would travel there for the vaccine). The email specifically said that non-residents/non-citizens were eligible as long as they owned a condo in the condo village.

 

[lanejudy]

It doesn't appear that FL has any specific residency requirement, or at the very least no proof of residency at most locations. I think just an ID that proves age 65+ is all that's needed. Florida is discouraging people from traveling to FL just for the vaccination, but because there are so many out-of-staters who live there for months out of the year it's open to anyone. Some specific vaccination sites may have more stringent requirements.

 

[jerry557]

I think stocks in general are in for a good run. Massive increases in fiscal stimulus, combined with likely direct federal subsidization of state and local governments should see to that.

I have noticed huge price inflation in vacation homes and luxury RVs as well.

There is no doubt the incoming admin will pump money in and the market will jump in the short term. But you can't keep that sustained over a long period of time. We have real unemployment problems. We have a lot of pending evictions currently backlogged waiting for the pandemic to end. The market is overvalued as it is. The big corporations are making big profits, but most small businesses are struggling and continue to do so. COVID lockdowns and restrictions hit small businesses a lot harder. Not to mention the country isn't exactly politically stable anymore. That'll further complicate matters.

I knew people in 2007 who were thinking the real estate bubble will never end and making good money. Two years later they were filing bankruptcy. Economies can shift very quickly. And usually it's very difficult to predict when a downtown is going to happen. Even people who watch the markets for a living can't predict it.

Also one other thing....a lot of people do have cruises and vacations booked either late 2021 or into 2022. They are anxious to get away and travel and vacation. However, depending on what's required, it may change some plans. If cruises require masks and vaccines for the forseeable future or "the new normal." Some of those people will cancel and do something else.

 

[jane01jp]

There is no doubt the incoming admin will pump money in and the market will jump in the short term. But you can't keep that sustained over a long period of time. We have real unemployment problems. We have a lot of pending evictions currently backlogged waiting for the pandemic to end. The market is overvalued as it is. The big corporations are making big profits, but most small businesses are struggling and continue to do so. COVID lockdowns and restrictions hit small businesses a lot harder. Not to mention the country isn't exactly politically stable anymore. That'll further complicate matters.

I knew people in 2007 who were thinking the real estate bubble will never end and making good money. Two years later they were filing bankruptcy. Economies can shift very quickly. And usually it's very difficult to predict when a downtown is going to happen. Even people who watch the markets for a living can't predict it.

Also one other thing....a lot of people do have cruises and vacations booked either late 2021 or into 2022. They are anxious to get away and travel and vacation. However, depending on what's required, it may change some plans. If cruises require masks and vaccines for the forseeable future or "the new normal." Some of those people will cancel and do something else.

Good analysis. Have you considered the demand for stocks from state pension plans once they receive federal bailouts?

Also, I agree about some people bailing on travel if there are restrictions that they find objectionable.

 

[DCLMP]

I doubt they establish residency over there since they are Canadians. This is what surprises me. They are Canadians yet they can be vaccinated in the USA.

Snowbirds put a strain on the hospitals. If they live in Florida part of the year I have no issue with it.

 

[mevelandry]

Snowbirds put a strain on the hospitals. If they live in Florida part of the year I have no issue with it.

Agreed. They have insurance but they are still using your health care. Our federal and provincial governments have been trying real hard to convince people not to travel this year but some people are stubborn and did it anyway.