Race Pace Predictors

[GollyGadget]

Does anyone have any experience with a race pace predictor workout and how accurate it is? I've read about Galloway Magic Mile and Yasso 800s but never tried either.

I've run most of my races with an arbitrary time goal that isn't really based on my current fitness. Usually it's based on my past performance which doesn't account for any recent training gains (or losses). I'd like to run my next race with a smarter goal.

Any input is appreciated!

 

[IamTrike]

With the Hanson's training plan I did for the Chicago marathon it gave me some estimated finish times for other race distances based on the training I had been doing. I ran a half a couple weeks before Chicago and those estimated times were pretty accurate.

 

[DopeyBadger]

-You could use a recent race time (like from the beginning of training). This was a discussion about the use of a race equivalency calculator (link). That's essentially what the Magic Mile and Yasso 800s are. Although the longer the distance the less accurate those become because of the difference between anaerobic and aerobic gains in performance through training.
-You could compare HR at given paces from the last few weeks and compare that to historical race pace HR data to pre-predict a good goal. I've done that with success (link).
-I also commonly schedule blind runs (no GPS feedback) during training runs in my training plans. By honing in on what "feels" like race pace blind to feedback allows some predictions as to appropriate goals.

I've used all of these methods and they can be reasonably accurate given you put in the appropriate training. Of course, with it being summer then it's important to consider a temperature and dew point adjustment to pace.

Hope this helps!

 

[GollyGadget]

Thanks guys! I have a 7 mi race coming up and while I have a time goal, I'm not really sure what's achievable so that's what I was hoping to find.
I haven't raced since early May and I'm hoping there's been some improvements since then. Especially since I was sick and recovering for those.
I think I'll set my goal based on those and then adjust after the halfway point of the race if I have more to give.