Here’s the thing - you may have trouble booking at an MK resort at 7 months w/ SSR points if you want to avoid the hot summer months & are working around your 16 yo dd’s high school & future college schedules & in 3 years you’ll be working around your grandson’s school schedule as well.
SSR points are the cheapest on the resale market for a reason - it’s the largest resort, a lot of people own there & use them as SAP points & they compete w/ each other to get into harder to book resorts at 7 months. Do a search here on DIS for “
DVC availability“ to get a sense for how easy/hard/frustrating it will be to switch to more popular resorts at 7 months paying particular attention to posts by those who have owned for a long time & have prepandemic booking experience. It’s a strategy that can work if you go at less popular times, are flexible with your schedule, villa size & view, are ok w/ split stays, & enjoy the thrill of the hunt for a ‘better’ resort, & are ok w/ staying at your home resort if you can’t find something else.
I personally have little experience w/ switching at 7 months - I did it once & it was a challenge, I had to switch dates & do a split stay & I was looking for ‘easy’ 1 br.s.
I’m in the buy we’re you want to stay camp, because I have strong feelings about where I want to stay & because the cost to make sure I’ll get what I want in the villa size & view I want when I want to go is worth it to me. Others are more flexible and care less about where they stay. I liken it to buying a new car - my brother cares about what kind of new care he drives - so he owns a Mercedes, I don’t - so I own a new Subaru.
While buy cheap & try the system out is a great strategy if you don’t know where you want to stay & are ok w/ staying at the resort you buy when you can’t book elsewhere. The math is different if you know where you want to stay & if you want to stay there during high/moderate demand times.
Let’s assume you really want to stay at VGF but can buy resale SSR for $130 & VGF for $170. You elect to save $40 per point and buy SSR to try DVC out. 2 years later you decide you really want to own VGF because you are having trouble booking stays at VGF when you want in the villa size & view you want w/ those SSR points because the craziness of the last couple of years is over, borrowing restrictions are gone, & ‘normal’ booking behavior has returned. Meanwhile the resale market has gone up 20%. So your resale SSR points are now worth $156 minus the 10% sales commission & taxes owed on your gain, ignoring the taxes, you’ll net around $140.4 per point. Meanwhile resale VGF points will now cost you 20% more - $208 - so you’ll need to add an additional $67.6 in cash over your SSR sale proceeds which is $27 a point more than that additional $40 you could have bought VGF resale for originally.
You also decide you now want direct points because APs & other benefits are back. If you’d bought VGF2 now you’d pay $207, but 2 years later VGF2 is sold out & you can’t buy there (which happened w/ VGF1) or you can but at the ridiculously high sold out resort price, but you can buy Poly2 - which now cost 20% more than VGF2 direct costs now - so $207 + $41.4 = $248.4. You’ll need to add $108 to your $140.4 SSR proceeds to buy your new direct points at Poly2 v. the $77 more than SSR resale you’d pay if you bought VGF direct now. & you didn’t wait 3 months to get your resale points - you got your direct points immediately & booked your welcome home trip at VGF in a resort studio for this fall.