Purchasing DVC Analysis

[crisi]

Awesome work. One thing to keep in mind is that the ROFR thread is self reporting - it probably skews to the best deals and the actual average price would be a little higher. But I doubt signifcantly

 

[MICKIMINI]

Wow - thanks for putting so much time into this analysis! I still use pencil and paper, but have been able to figure out similar trends in the resorts we tend to buy LOL!

It just confirms that you have to decide what you want and what you will pay for it (a range for negotiating) before you start your search. From there, just keep bidding until you get what you want and be patient.

Additionally, I figure out a value for "free" points (100 @ $10 = $1000) and divide by number of points I'm buying. In this example, I "take" $10 off cost per point - if renting $15. I also figure in closing costs, so using the same example of 100 points costing $500 in closing, it is a $5 per point addition.

So 100 free points that I can rent is worth $1500 - $500 closing so I'm still saving $1000 on points. I'm feeling much better about the rental situation as of late and have been successful using disboards to do so. So many strategies, so many contracts!

@Ruttangel, your hard work is greatly appreciated!

 

[Blanchey]

This is very helpful, thanks for taking the time to put it together and share!

 

[Ruttangel]

Wow - thanks for putting so much time into this analysis! I still use pencil and paper, but have been able to figure out similar trends in the resorts we tend to buy LOL!

It just confirms that you have to decide what you want and what you will pay for it (a range for negotiating) before you start your search. From there, just keep bidding until you get what you want and be patient.

Additionally, I figure out a value for "free" points (100 @ $10 = $1000) and divide by number of points I'm buying. In this example, I "take" $10 off cost per point - if renting $15. I also figure in closing costs, so using the same example of 100 points costing $500 in closing, it is a $5 per point addition.

So 100 free points that I can rent is worth $1500 - $500 closing so I'm still saving $1000 on points. I'm feeling much better about the rental situation as of late and have been successful using disboards to do so. So many strategies, so many contracts!

@Ruttangel, your hard work is greatly appreciated!

Thanks very much, yes this is just a ROFR guide.
I enjoyed following the lowball thread last year about buying strategies.
I got a $95 BWV bid accepted but DVC staff had just come back in office and took it.

 

[cruisehopeful]

Thank for this! I'm glad I didn't see this before I purchased my little 50 pt Poly or I would have likely gone into debt buying a 100 or 125 pointer instead.

 

[eandt]

Wow - thanks for putting so much time into this analysis! I still use pencil and paper, but have been able to figure out similar trends in the resorts we tend to buy LOL!

It just confirms that you have to decide what you want and what you will pay for it (a range for negotiating) before you start your search. From there, just keep bidding until you get what you want and be patient.

Additionally, I figure out a value for "free" points (100 @ $10 = $1000) and divide by number of points I'm buying. In this example, I "take" $10 off cost per point - if renting $15. I also figure in closing costs, so using the same example of 100 points costing $500 in closing, it is a $5 per point addition.

So 100 free points that I can rent is worth $1500 - $500 closing so I'm still saving $1000 on points. I'm feeling much better about the rental situation as of late and have been successful using disboards to do so. So many strategies, so many contracts!

@Ruttangel, your hard work is greatly appreciated!

I think I know what "free" points are but could you explain? Also why $15 to rent arent most getting between 16-20 if renting them themselves? I am really trying to justify a direct purchase in my mind and the 2020 points that would come with a direct purchase in the UY we want helps make up some of the difference. Now if only they would tell me that the AP discount would be coming back ..........

 

[Yinn]

Maybe after the hotel reopens. I think interest is " on hold" because of the construction/rehab activity that is occurring right now.

I sure hope so. The Moana theming should help. It could use a dose of freshness to go with the nostalgia.

 

[MICKIMINI]

I think I know what "free" points are but could you explain? Also why $15 to rent arent most getting between 16-20 if renting them themselves? I am really trying to justify a direct purchase in my mind and the 2020 points that would come with a direct purchase in the UY we want helps make up some of the difference. Now if only they would tell me that the AP discount would be coming back ..........

"Free" points are from the prior UY or current as long as you aren't paying for them. $15 is just an average PP rental IMO. You can charge whatever you want, as long as you can find a renter. The market is heating up again for rentals.

Are you buying direct in hopes of the AP or are there other benefits you are buying for?

 

[eandt]

"Free" points are from the prior UY or current as long as you aren't paying for them. $15 is just an average PP rental IMO. You can charge whatever you want, as long as you can find a renter. The market is heating up again for rentals.

Are you buying direct in hopes of the AP or are there other benefits you are buying for?

The AP is I guess the biggest potential money saving perk we would be interested in but I'd be lying if I said that the "blue" card had no other value to us as I feel there is some value to the ease of purchase with direct (at least as far as I can tell by reading here), ease of getting the exact UY we would prefer, the ability to stay at future resorts, as well as the aforementioned "free" points that come loaded on the contract rather than the mostly stripped or partially stripped ones that are available on the resale sites we have seen. My problem is the "value" of those things worth 6-10k? I haven't been able to decide lol

We have made a couple of offers on resale but no takers and the more I read about the waiting and worrying about ROFR not to mention paying 1000's for something that you won't even be able to have access to or use for months has made the money savings less appealing. I suppose if this wouldn't be our first contract I would feel differently about the resale process. We have no trips planned or anything it's just me being impatient.

 

[MICKIMINI]

We originally bought OKW in 1996. The "perks" have shrunk down at this point, to well, nothing but a small discount of purchases and dining? You can always buy direct and DVC will never run out of points.

Keep reading disboards, put your purchase "through the funnel" again and again until you know pretty much exactly what you want. Three years ago we purchased a good sized contract (actually it was two bundled) and had four years worth of points, many of which were free and some were at 50%. I rented lots of points which brought our purchase price and accounting for closing costs down $17 PP.

If you have no imminent plans, save your money and either buy more points or start small and keep the rest for your future purchases. Find the resort and UY that work for you and read the ROFR posts. Prices are rising rapidly and ridiculously IMO! I just passed ROFR on 50 SSR for $110 and have seen $144 this week. That is a crazy increase in less than 30 days.

You have to stalk the resellers relentlessly and when you see something that is "perfect" go for it! Be the first into negotiation and with a little finesse, you have a good chance of getting that contract. It helps if you find a contract that is a reasonable or close to reasonable price to begin with.

Lots of DVC mega buyers here and you can learn a tremendous amount from our successes and failures. Good luck!

 

[DVC Doctor]

I think I know what "free" points are but could you explain? Also why $15 to rent arent most getting between 16-20 if renting them themselves?

$15pp rent mega fast with no worries
$16pp is about average for SSR/OKW/AKV
$17pp is about average for BLT/Poly/BC/BWV etc
$18-20pp is much harder to get and takes more time and is usually 11 month bookings
>$20pp usually involves spec renting super popular weeks

 

[E2ME2]

I

"Free" points are from the prior UY or current as long as you aren't paying for them. $15 is just an average PP rental IMO. You can charge whatever you want, as long as you can find a renter. The market is heating up again for rentals.

Are you buying direct in hopes of the AP or are there other benefits you are buying for?

always estimate the "free points" value based on the MFs for that resort.
(I haven't ever rented out points - I always use them all up)
So I factored in ~$8.07/PP on the extra points on an AKV bid I just submitted.

 

[pangyal]

@Ruttangel this is truly fantastic, thank you so much for putting this together and sharing it with us!

 

[limace]

Yeah, I bought VGC in 2017 for $140 and it’s been astonishing to watch the increase there. Also grabbed a 25 point direct AKV contract right around Christmas that year just before the minimum fir benefits increased. We normally seem to “buy high sell low” but that was one time we seemed to time it right.

 

[EM Lawrence]

I think resale prices are crazy high right now, but there seems to be no lack of buyers. I’ve always been solidly in team resale, but with the asking for SSR lately, and the discount on direct, buying direct SSR is looking better and better to me.

 

[ParkHoppers]

Was the last direct point increase 2021 or 2020? Trying to figure out when next increase is coming. Thanks in advance.

 

[Yinn]

Was the last direct point increase 2021 or 2020? Trying to figure out when next increase is coming. Thanks in advance.

Depends on the resort. There was one in 2021 for some of them.

 

[Heather07438]

Overall – big jump in Resale PPP in 2018, I haven’t worked out what that is yet?

Thank you for that chart!
I haven’t read the whole thread yet but the 2018 jump came along with renewed optimism for WDW parks between 2 new lands at HS, Disney Springs hitting its new stride, the 50th coming into focus, etc. 2018 was a great year for WDW fans to be excited. New stuff was already happening and much more coming Soonish.

 

[hhisc16]

This analysis shows the interest in Disney choosing to buy back certain resorts in certain years.
2021 has shown a new interest in a few resorts so far that normally have not been on the list.

 

[Ruttangel]

Was the last direct point increase 2021 or 2020? Trying to figure out when next increase is coming. Thanks in advance.

Current offers expire tomorrow, not sure which properties will be effected, might just be AUL and RIV