I’m torn for your circumstances. I lean BLT for you because the
point chart is easier and you’ll love MK after parties — but a family of five, no studios for you. We, personally, never want a studio with our kids (as adults only it's fine,) and your kids as teens may need/want to bring a friend to convince them to come, so that means a 2B (which you’ll probably want/need anyway.)
Since your early starting point to visit are peak weeks (kids’ school breaks/Thanksgiving,) you’ll need a boatload of points for VGF, even only going once every three years. That pushes back to BLT with the extra bathroom, and their grand villa is outstanding for big generational trips.
However, as empty nesters traveling peak DVC weeks, you may enjoy just BEING at VGF and eating and drinking and shopping and sightseeing, renting a boat, walking over to Poly, and you’ll need that 11-month advantage. VGF now has enough studios, especially resort studios at BPK, but you’ll still need to own there for early December.
Which one does your wife prefer? If you’re truly 50/50, I’d go with her preference since she’s the reluctant one, LOL, and that may help when addd-on-itis hits to convince her to buy more later on.
For us, we always travel peak kid school weeks like you but favor the same other times you listed when we’re empty nesters. We also plan/hope to have generational trips (we’re already doing multi family ones every time and love it!). We also fly from the Northeast, and our kids are approaching tweendom but are freakishly tall at 10 (5’6”) and 11 (5’2”.). We added on at Riviera (per reluctant HUSBAND,) because once we got a hit of privacy, king bed, private bath, and room for the kids to have their own space — game over. We/he became DVC addicts. The resorts and amenities really make a difference to us. If you haven’t had a chance to stay DVC yet, it really improves the whole WDW experience. Your wife and kids may have a new appreciation for going once you’re not all cramped in a room with luggage everywhere.
We are COO. I have groceries and alcohol delivered, do a small load of laundry every night to pack less, and love our Owners Lockers for storing our WDW staples and creature comforts. I know I don’t have to convince you, but the wife and teens may initially roll their eyes at “Disney, again?” LOL. When you enjoy your home resort and can send them off to fetch QS at Gasparilla Grill and bring it back so you can enjoy coffee on the balcony overlooking the water in your robe — chef’s kiss, baby.
We lucked out getting VGF in early December because there was a big flood of rooms/points opened up for BPK that dovetailed with the seven-month booking window, plus one-bedrooms are not as popular. We loved the room/resort but hated the mob of people around.
Just throwing it out there, the Poly tower is opening this year, and if you like Epcot festivals and plan to own for the long haul, any interest in Riviera? You and the wife could do a cheap tower studio for long weekends at F&W, and the contract runs to 2070. Maybe for a second contract once the family is won over.
