Puerto Rico Earthquake

[Trera]

Any word if this will affect upcoming eastern cruises?

 

[adamki]

News reports seem to agree that the impacted area is in and around the town of Guánica which is about 60 miles from San Juan. I wouldn't expect any impact on DCL's operations.

Incredibly, even though there are some reports of houses collapsing from their raised foundations, there aren't any reports of injury or death. Let's hope it stays that way.

 

[Ben E N]

Not to pooh pooh it too much, but wasn't it a magnitude 5.8? That can cause damage, but is over 100 times weaker than the one that stuck Haiti about 10 years ago, and over 1,000 times weaker than the one that struck Japan in 2011. Still noteworthy, but it shouldn't have too much lasting impact.

 

[adamki]

Not to pooh pooh it too much, but wasn't it a magnitude 5.8? That can cause damage, but is over 100 times weaker than the one that stuck Haiti about 10 years ago, and over 1,000 times weaker than the one that struck Japan in 2011. Still noteworthy, but it shouldn't have too much lasting impact.

Looks like Haiti 2010 was about 15x larger and Japan 2011 was nearly 2000 times larger. Today's was still nearly as powerful as the Hiroshima bomb.

 

[Ben E N]

Looks like Haiti 2010 was about 15x larger and Japan 2011 was nearly 2000 times larger. Today's was still nearly as powerful as the Hiroshima bomb.

Earthquakes are terrifying. I'm hoping that everyone is ok from this one. That poor territory has had enough strife already over the past couple of years.

 

[DLgal]

Not to pooh pooh it too much, but wasn't it a magnitude 5.8? That can cause damage, but is over 100 times weaker than the one that stuck Haiti about 10 years ago, and over 1,000 times weaker than the one that struck Japan in 2011. Still noteworthy, but it shouldn't have too much lasting impact.

The issue is that earthquakes are pretty uncommon in PR and therefore the infrastructure isn't designed with them in mind, the way that Japan is.

Remember the earthquake that struck the Washington DC area in 2011? Caused a lot of damage and was only a 5.8.

 

[Ben E N]

The issue is that earthquakes are pretty uncommon in PR and therefore the infrastructure isn't designed with them in mind, the way that Japan is.

Remember the earthquake that struck the Washington DC area in 2011? Caused a lot of damage and was only a 5.8.

I understand that. That's why the 7.0 that struck Haiti was so terrible compared to the 9.0 in Japan, despite being 100x weaker (over 10x as many total deaths attributed to it). The structures around cruise ports are pretty sturdy, though, so I doubt it will affect cruise traffic much, as they need that to support their economy.

 

[Ben E N]

Uh oh. Yesterday's was just a foreshock. Many more overnight, including a 6.4. All on the other side of the island, but that's a lot scarier to read about as weak structures were already unstable. Hopefully everybody knew enough to stay outdoors after yesterday's quake.

 

[cvjw]

Very sad to hear. We were just in San Juan on the fantasy and spent the day walking around old San Juan. We noticed so many buildings that were still unstable and under construction from the last hurricane. An earthquake is the last thing they need

 

[daedelus]

I just got off the phone with DCL. They're keeping a very close eye on the situation and at this time there are no changes to the upcoming Puerto Rico based cruises. We're on the repositioning from Galveston to San Juan, so we're watching it closely.

The rep said they would post any changes on the site and immediately email any impacted guests. Obviously safety comes first, but they'll let people know as far in advance as they can. The captain has the final say (in coordination with DCL Operations) but in the event of porting issues they could change the final port if required. No telling where that could be, would be nice if it was Miami though... It would make flight rescheduling much easier!

This is reason #85 as to why one should A) always travel with a passport on cruises and B) purchase travel insurance that includes coverage for trip disruption.

Cheers!

 

[AquaDame]

I just got off the phone with DCL. They're keeping a very close eye on the situation and at this time there are no changes to the upcoming Puerto Rico based cruises. We're on the repositioning from Galveston to San Juan, so we're watching it closely.

The rep said they would post any changes on the site and immediately email any impacted guests. Obviously safety comes first, but they'll let people know as far in advance as they can. The captain has the final say (in coordination with DCL Operations) but in the event of porting issues they could change the final port if required. No telling where that could be, would be nice if it was Miami though... It would make flight rescheduling much easier!

This is reason #85 as to why one should A) always travel with a passport on cruises and B) purchase travel insurance that includes coverage for trip disruption.

Cheers!

SJU also continued to operate uninterrupted by utilizing generators. I admit I'll be watching to see if any hotels suffer damage - wondering if they may cancel our reservation if there is any damage to the building.

As always I'm far more concerned for the people living on the island than changes to my cruise - I hope the one loss of life suffered is the only one and the rumblings (which have been going for a week now) stop.

 

[adamki]

Here's the latest aftershock forecast from the USGS:

According to our forecast, over the next 1 Week there is a 9 % chance of one or more aftershocks that are larger than magnitude 6.4. It is likely that there will be smaller earthquakes over the next 1 Week, with 130 to 410 magnitude 3 or higher aftershocks. Magnitude 3 and above are large enough to be felt near the epicenter. The number of aftershocks will drop off over time, but a large aftershock can increase the numbers again, temporarily.​

​

The USGS estimates the chance of more aftershocks as follows: Within the next 1 Week until 2020-01-14 14:30:00 (UTC):​

• The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 3 or higher is > 99 %, and it is most likely that as few as 130 or as many as 410 such earthquakes may occur in the case that the sequence is re-invigorated by a larger aftershock.
• The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 5 or higher is 90 %, and it is most likely that as few as 0 or as many as 7 such earthquakes may occur.
• The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 6 or higher is 22 %, and it is most likely that as few as 0 or as many as 2 such earthquakes may occur.
• The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher is 2 %, such an earthquake is possible but with a low probability.

Here's a link to the main page for this morning's earthquake with the forecast information:

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us70006vll/executive

 

[tlprice]

I wanted to take the upcoming Southern Caribbean cruise from San Juan so bad and had to talk myself out of booking it so many times. Now, I feel better having talked myself out of it. I did a Southern Caribbean in January 2018 and it was my favorite cruise. It was not long after Hurricane Maria and there were still a lot of issues on the island. The news is saying that 95% of the island is without power. If I were going on this cruise, I would be there in 10 days. Puerto Rico is such a fabulous place--I feel so bad for the people there going through all of this.