Predicted DVC booking patterns - Studios/ some 1-bedrooms (Prepared 2015)

[skier_pete]

Not buying it. That's like saying, I go to Disney because I love to. I just bring the family along because it's nice. As a beneficiary of these charts when I bought in, it's pretty friggin' nice you did this.

And @Bing Showei here is giving a MAJOR assist to me with the new round of charts - but c'mon let's be honest - we are doing this primarily because it benefits US to know this information. If it wasn't benefitting ME then I wouldn't be doing it. It takes a LOT of hours to do these charts - as you know better than anyone else on here. In actuality, you are LESS selfish than me...as these charts would've gotten done whether you volunteered to help or not. So big thanks from me to you on that one!

As far as the 7 month block goes, that is definitely the trickiest to do. I try to work the true availability of 7 months into that block. If I check on May 20th, and May 15th-20th is gone, and May 21st -31st is still available, I might still call that "spotty". but even "mostly" may indicate it goes pretty fast at 7 months. The real tell is certainly the 6 month reading - if a resort is already at "none" for 6 months - there's a good chance it's going pretty quickly at the 7 month mark.

Beach Club is a great example of this. Much of the year (Jan-Sep) home resort studio bookings at BCV are readily available right up until the 7 month mark. However, if you want a BCV as a non-owner, you better be (a) on the website at 8 AM at 7 months AND (b) lucky. You literally can watch the availability charts for studios back from whatever the 7 month date is and see zero availability all the way back. So what do we call 7 months in that case. It's not "open" right? "Mostly" or "Spotty" is appropriate, but really unless you try to book every morning at 7 am you can't truly answer that question properly.

So we make a best guess. The best idea I tripped on making these things was the use of green, yellow and red - much like streetlights, green indicates "go for it", yellow means "plan to book with caution" and red means "not very likely" The words don't really mean much - "Spotty" vs "None" only tells you something if you are trying to get a day or two, to the normal traveler that wants a week - they're both the same.

 

[Pluto777]

Can't disagree this is information I would want to know before buying, but most likely it would be a case of "I don't know what I don't know", meaning I think most buyers wouldn't even know that this is something they should be looking at. In fact, I would say that part of the reason I did this was to give MYSELF a better knowledge base for adding points - do I REALLY want to consider buying into SSR to save some money?

And I also said this in my original post - I did these tables for myself. My only "nice" act really is sharing it with everyone.

Three cheers for Pete laddies!

 

[Pluto777]

And @Bing Showei here is giving a MAJOR assist to me with the new round of charts - but c'mon let's be honest - we are doing this primarily because it benefits US to know this information. If it wasn't benefitting ME then I wouldn't be doing it. It takes a LOT of hours to do these charts - as you know better than anyone else on here. In actuality, you are LESS selfish than me...as these charts would've gotten done whether you volunteered to help or not. So big thanks from me to you on that one!

As far as the 7 month block goes, that is definitely the trickiest to do. I try to work the true availability of 7 months into that block. If I check on May 20th, and May 15th-20th is gone, and May 21st -31st is still available, I might still call that "spotty". but even "mostly" may indicate it goes pretty fast at 7 months. The real tell is certainly the 6 month reading - if a resort is already at "none" for 6 months - there's a good chance it's going pretty quickly at the 7 month mark.

Beach Club is a great example of this. Much of the year (Jan-Sep) home resort studio bookings at BCV are readily available right up until the 7 month mark. However, if you want a BCV as a non-owner, you better be (a) on the website at 7 AM at 7 months AND (b) lucky. You literally can watch the availability charts for studios back from whatever the 7 month date is and see zero availability all the way back. So what do we call 7 months in that case. It's not "open" right? "Mostly" or "Spotty" is appropriate, but really unless you try to book every morning at 7 am you can't truly answer that question properly.

So we make a best guess. The best idea I tripped on making these things was the use of green, yellow and red - much like streetlights, green indicates "go for it", yellow means "plan to book with caution" and red means "not very likely" The words don't really mean much - "Spotty" vs "None" only tells you something if you are trying to get a day or two, to the normal traveler that wants a week - they're both the same.

You mean 8 AM EST not &, right Pete?

 

[jmmess]

You mean 8 AM EST not &, right Pete?

Agree, it should be 8am.

 

[skier_pete]

You mean 8 AM EST not &, right Pete?

Sorry, yes 8 AM. Didn't proof read...fixed.

 

[Chereya]

The information that you've compiled here and continue to work on, is hands down one of the most important resources that can be shared amongst prospective, new and experienced DVCers. I'm very thankful that you've shared your past work and are gathering data for an updated version. A very heartfelt thanks, Pete!

 

[DDuck4Life]

Ok, these are amazing and look like a ton of work went into these. I can only imagine the time an effort it took to put all of this together taking a whole year. These are super helpful and really help solidify our decision on which resort we will want as our home.

Some of this I was able to pick up anecdotally but this helps confirm what I was thinking. Now I just need to actually bite the bullet, buy some points and just need to succumb to the fact that I'll never be able to stay at the Grand Californian on points.

 

[CarolMN]

Ok, these are amazing and look like a ton of work went into these. I can only imagine the time an effort it took to put all of this together taking a whole year. These are super helpful and really help solidify our decision on which resort we will want as our home.

Some of this I was able to pick up anecdotally but this helps confirm what I was thinking. Now I just need to actually bite the bullet, buy some points and just need to succumb to the fact that I'll never be able to stay at the Grand Californian on points.

Never say never, LOL. I thought the same, but recently returned home after a 3 night stay in a VGF lake view studio that was booked (without walking) a few days after the 7 month window opened..

It was wonderful and I'm glad I had the chance. But I still love our home (BWV) best.

So you never know. Sometimes you just get lucky!

 

[jmmess]

VGC definitely depends when you ar looking to go. I was online and ready to go at 7 months at 8am ET every day for a week and lost out each day when tying to book. Finally got it for a week after I was originally looking for and that week ended up being available for a few days after. So it isn’t impossible, but it is tough and definitely depends on time of year.

 

[skier_pete]

Ok, these are amazing and look like a ton of work went into these. I can only imagine the time an effort it took to put all of this together taking a whole year. These are super helpful and really help solidify our decision on which resort we will want as our home.

Some of this I was able to pick up anecdotally but this helps confirm what I was thinking. Now I just need to actually bite the bullet, buy some points and just need to succumb to the fact that I'll never be able to stay at the Grand Californian on points.

Thanks Man - Yeah about 2 hours every two weeks - so around 52 hours to complete them the first time. The second time (ongoing) I expanded to ALL 1-bedrooms but about half way through got a volunteer that took about 1/3 of the work off my shoulders - also on the second go-round I'm not being quite as thorough. (I was checking 7 month and 11-month availability every week the first time.) So it takes me about an hour every two weeks right now. Happy to be done with it, but also glad to have the updated charts - not sure I'll be doing it again anytime too soon.

As far as the VGC goes - though it's not easy - it's also not impossible. I tried to get in there at 7-months for our Feb 2016 stay, and couldn't snag it. I waitlisted both a studio and a 1-bedroom unit, and just 33 days before the trip the 1-bedroom came through. There are only 23 studios (as 2-bed lock-offs) in all of VGC, so it's by far the hardest "regular" unit to get. (Club and Value at AKV are the hardest of any category to get period.)

And I've said it a few times on here - but the new charts (coming soon folks!) show that studios have gotten a little harder to get since 2015 - in particular with being booked up at 7 months - but overall the patterns remain very similar to what can be seen in these charts.

 

[Heidi Drum]

Thanks skier_pete!!!!

 

[BcIcemen]

Great info and looking forward to your updates

 

[Anal Annie]

Looking forward to seeing all of your hard work - I have kept this thread bookmarked and refer to it frequently when pre-planning.
Thank you and your helper!

 

[skier_pete]

It's getting close folks...just late June block and all the studios and one-bedrooms will be complete. Then it's a matter of finding the couple of hours it'll take to build the thread...

 

[NewbieMom]

As far as the VGC goes - though it's not easy - it's also not impossible. I tried to get in there at 7-months for our Feb 2016 stay, and couldn't snag it. I waitlisted both a studio and a 1-bedroom unit, and just 33 days before the trip the 1-bedroom came through. There are only 23 studios (as 2-bed lock-offs) in all of VGC, so it's by far the hardest "regular" unit to get. (Club and Value at AKV are the hardest of any category to get period.)

Thank you so much for all your efforts on this! I'm looking forward to seeing the charts as I'm hoping to snag "frequent" 2-4 night stays at VGC. Frequent defined as 2-3 times/year, but we also live within driving distance so it's no big deal if we don't find anything. We could always skip or add a trip.

 

[Mumof4mice]

It's getting close folks...just late June block and all the studios and one-bedrooms will be complete. Then it's a matter of finding the couple of hours it'll take to build the thread...

Thank you so much for sharing. These tables are extremely helpful.

 

[DenLo]

Thank you skier_pete for doing all this work. After observing my DH, wdrl, working on his statistics for DVC sales, I have a pretty good idea of the work you are doing each time you do an update. Your results have been invaluable to many people. But I do understand if it gets to much to handle. Taking on a project like this for years is a real challenge in our real lives.

 

[cmwade77]

AKL Savannah View Studio is spotty for middle of January at the 7 month booking window now, just thought I would let you know. I am literally having to call each morning, one more to go.

 

[skier_pete]

Hey everyone; Update is Complete.

Brand New Availability Tables are now available at this link

 

[Spartan86]

Hey everyone; Update is Complete.

Brand New Availability Tables are now available at this link

Great info. Thank you two for sharing it.