Predicted DVC booking patterns - Studios/ some 1-bedrooms (Prepared 2015)

[skier_pete]

Im so sorry to bug you yet again but do u or anyone else know any booking info for hilton head over easter?

I didn't do anything with Hilton Head.

 

[DragonObsessed]

Ok no prob! Thanks for all your info! Sure has helped myself and many others!!​

 

[Pluto80]

Wow, amazing!

 

[Pluto777]

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BCV disappear very quickly at 7 months no matter the time of year (if there are any left). 1-bedrooms seem to be around a little longer.

I KNOW you've heard it before, but it MUST be said: Thanks SO MUCH Pete for this! One thing I am left to conclude; it seems based on this chart that my 'dream' of getting in at BCV at 7 months in late August is about as likely as my wife telling me: "you know what? You're RIGHT!" : ( Oh well...

 

[skier_pete]

I KNOW you've heard it before, but it MUST be said: Thanks SO MUCH Pete for this! One thing I am left to conclude; it seems based on this chart that my 'dream' of getting in at BCV at 7 months in late August is about as likely as my wife telling me: "you know what? You're RIGHT!" : ( Oh well...

Late August you have a good shot. I've done it before.

 

[todd sawicki]

Pete - this is awesome. Thanks so much! Looking at DCV resale market and will be a big consideration for us vs continuing to rent points!

 

[skier_pete]

Pete - this is awesome. Thanks so much! Looking at DCV resale market and will be a big consideration for us vs continuing to rent points!

I will admit that as I am polling for a new set of charts (4 months into the 12 month process) that I am finding that rooms at many resorts - particularly studios - book up very fast at the 7 month mark. This isn't to say you can't get these rooms, just be aware that you need to be prepared to book right away at 7 months if you want a studio.

 

[todd sawicki]

I will admit that as I am polling for a new set of charts (4 months into the 12 month process) that I am finding that rooms at many resorts - particularly studios - book up very fast at the 7 month mark. This isn't to say you can't get these rooms, just be aware that you need to be prepared to book right away at 7 months if you want a studio.

Pete - I hear you - renting at 7 months at popular resorts is hard (we've shifted to 11 month rentals) - part of the reason we're looking at shifting our thinking. Again your data lines up w/ our anecdotal experience for sure.

 

[suebeelin]

I will admit that as I am polling for a new set of charts (4 months into the 12 month process) that I am finding that rooms at many resorts - particularly studios - book up very fast at the 7 month mark. This isn't to say you can't get these rooms, just be aware that you need to be prepared to book right away at 7 months if you want a studio.

Looks like things have changed since two years ago; inventory seems tighter now than it was before...

 

[skier_pete]

Looks like things have changed since two years ago; inventory seems tighter now than it was before...

Definitely. I think the DVC rental culture has gotten bigger since 2-3 years ago as well. In addition, the more resorts that go into the system, the harder small properties with high demand will be.

 

[WALTSAGOD]

Very cool thread, you’ve put in a LOT of work!

For a Standard studio at 7 months, you had better like SSR or OKW for sure.


Thanks

 

[MJB62676]

Wanted to say thank you! It was really helpful during my recent research prior to decision to buy into Poly. Since I'd be more than happy at OKW, this is perfect for us. It would appear we can either get Poly at 11months or, OKW (or Saratoga, as wife loves DS)...so this has been very helpful. I'm watching trends at Poly closely and will look forward to your data analysis!

I'm into this type of thing, so I'll be following, and may try to do something similar if I can.

 

[jmmess]

Interestingly, I was able to get April 7-14 in AKL Value studio for this year. Some of the nights were add-ons and not directly at 7 month mark. But seems to be a good time assuming it isn't Easter and a waitlist is done far enough ahead.

 

[Wakey]

I could get two consecutive weeks AK value 1 beds at 7 months July this year, and secured a 2 bed standard Boardwalk- both some of the most difficult. I suspect it could be a fairly quiet year, calm before the storm.

 

[Pluto777]

Definitely. I think the DVC rental culture has gotten bigger since 2-3 years ago as well. In addition, the more resorts that go into the system, the harder small properties with high demand will be.

I know I speak for everyone here when I say (for the 99999th time youve heard it) thanks again Pete! By the way, Pete or anyone else can answer this one: Anyone have a 'back of the envelope' type short list of smaller demand properties vs larger ones in order to calculate the 7 month stuff? I also think that Pete's work, no matter how accurate, will likely certainly change over the years and need constant updates as booking patterns change..

 

[Supplanter]

I know I speak for everyone here when I say (for the 99999th time youve heard it) thanks again Pete! By the way, Pete or anyone else can answer this one: Anyone have a 'back of the envelope' type short list of smaller demand properties vs larger ones in order to calculate the 7 month stuff? I also think that Pete's work, no matter how accurate, will likely certainly change over the years and need constant updates as booking patterns change..

Off the top of my head, Hard to book smaller properties- beach club, boardwalk, hilton head (only in summer), grand californian.

 

[Pluto777]

Off the top of my head, Hard to book smaller properties- beach club, boardwalk, hilton head (only in summer), grand californian.

Thanks! What about BLT, AKL & PVB? Think they will be tough at 7 months?

 

[skier_pete]

I know I speak for everyone here when I say (for the 99999th time youve heard it) thanks again Pete! By the way, Pete or anyone else can answer this one: Anyone have a 'back of the envelope' type short list of smaller demand properties vs larger ones in order to calculate the 7 month stuff? I also think that Pete's work, no matter how accurate, will likely certainly change over the years and need constant updates as booking patterns change..

Hardest to book on property IMO (in general - understand that certain categories are harder to book than others - so this is just difficulty to book period.

Hardest to Easiest @ 7 months:
1) VGF
2) BCV
3) BWV
4) WLV
5) Poly
6) BLT
7) AKV
8) OKW
9) SSR

Copper Creek is hard to predict until it is sold out. I think Studios at CCV will be very difficult because they aren't enough studios for the number of points there - probably will land at #3 on the list.

 

[Roxyfire]

Thanks! What about BLT, AKL & PVB? Think they will be tough at 7 months?

As the usual response is, it depends on the time of year. For this June, I was easily able to get 6 nights (could've gotten more) at those three and Boardwalk Villas as well. Boulder Ridge was spotty and of course Copper Creek were a total no go. Keep in mind, this is for right at the 7 am Eastern window opening. DVC busy season will change all that as BLT /Poly are very desirable for those doing Halloween parties at Magic Kingdom. AK Kidani Savanna View had quite a few nights in October but they didn't last long.

 

[Pluto777]

As the usual response is, it depends on the time of year. For this June, I was easily able to get 6 nights (could've gotten more) at those three and Boardwalk Villas as well. Boulder Ridge was spotty and of course Copper Creek were a total no go. Keep in mind, this is for right at the 7 am Eastern window opening. DVC busy season will change all that as BLT /Poly are very desirable for those doing Halloween parties at Magic Kingdom. AK Kidani Savanna View had quite a few nights in October but they didn't last long.

Thanks. Are you sure it is 7 AM and not 8 AM EST?