Predicted DVC booking patterns - Studios/ some 1-bedrooms (Prepared 2015)

[Crystal824]

Thank you for your work on the booking patterns!

 

[suebeelin]

I think VGF is exceedingly popular because all the new owners want to stay there, and the points were so expensive, they feel they HAVE to stay there. I think that as time goes on, VGF owners will realize they want to stay at other resorts, that they could get a 1-bedroom at say BWV for only 25% more points...etc...that they will spread out more. VGF will always be one of the tougher gets because of it's size/location, but I think it will become similar to BCV in 5 years, where there will be some level of availability at 7 months, but you will need to pounce on it quickly as non-owners will want there shots.

Probably for most owners but hubby's best friend bought 160vgf points and they have been staying at BWV pool/garden pretty consistently this last year!!!!

They just got back from their June trip. And they had another one in March. Both BWV on their VGF points!!!

 

[DisneyDad728]

Great planning tool! Thanks!

 

[that's nice]

Nice work! Posting here to keep this on my subscribed thread list.

Apparently only the MODs can make a thread worthy enough to be a sticky.

 

[lovelylady226]

This is really helpful. You are amazing!!

 

[ColinBlair]

Sub

 

[JWG]

sub

 

[AJA]

Thank you!

subbing to the thread

 

[lodge]

You managed to make me feel guilty for my time wasted on FB. Nice work, thank you.

 

[Tigger1]

Thanks for all the research. Shows to buy where you want to stay if your planning at least 7 months ahead.

 

[chalee94]

just FYI for those "subscribing", please note that there is a button on the top right hand side of the thread on the screen that allows you to watch a thread. you don't have to post in it...

Thanks for all the research. Shows to buy where you want to stay if your planning at least 7 months ahead.

just keep in mind that disney and DVC patterns can be pretty fluid. this is a great resource for now, but in 5 years, disney could move around some festivals and point chart values on DVC that change things considerably.

 

[akoenig]

This is so useful! Thanks so much for your time and effort!

 

[Deb123]

Awesome work! Thank you!!

 

[EllieBride]

Here's a hypothetical question for you.... how likely (or unlikely) do you think it would be to get a 2BR at VGF at approximately 10 months out (vs. 11 months out) for a mid-October 2016 trip? It would probably be for a 5-night stay with a little flexibility on travel dates. TIA!!!!!

 

[supersnoop]

Here's a hypothetical question for you.... how likely (or unlikely) do you think it would be to get a 2BR at VGF at approximately 10 months out (vs. 11 months out) for a mid-October 2016 trip? It would probably be for a 5-night stay with a little flexibility on travel dates. TIA!!!!!

I'd expect two bedrooms to closely match studios. So, based on the data here, exceeding unlikely.

 

[EllieBride]

I'd expect two bedrooms to closely match studios. So, based on the data here, exceeding unlikely.

Well crap, crappity, crap! I don't think I'm going to have VGF points in time to make this reservation. Which means I will need to make a "just to be safe" reservation with BCV villa points at 11 months - during Food and Wine - when everyone else will be wanting to book over there. And I'm going to have to borrow points in order to do it, don't really want to do that, either. And then hope I have good luck with switching at 7 months or waitlisting. Ugh, ugh, ugh!!!! I was really hoping I could roll the dice and book this at 10 months

 

[skier_pete]

Here's a hypothetical question for you.... how likely (or unlikely) do you think it would be to get a 2BR at VGF at approximately 10 months out (vs. 11 months out) for a mid-October 2016 trip? It would probably be for a 5-night stay with a little flexibility on travel dates. TIA!!!!!

I'd expect two bedrooms to closely match studios. So, based on the data here, exceeding unlikely.

@EllieBride - understanding I did not survey VGF outside of the studios - but here's my opinion:
VGF is made up of 47 2-bedroom lock-offs and 47 2-bedrooms (and 6 grand villas). Since the studios are the most popular, realistically this means there are 47 each of the studios, 1-bedrooms and 2-bedrooms. As my table shows, the studios go VERY fast in October. However, that does NOT mean the 1- or 2-bedrooms go just as fast. (The 1-bedrooms definitely do NOT go as fast as the studios.) I don't think 2-bedrooms closely match studios, but I have no data on it either. So, I would answer your question not as "exceedingly unlikely" as supersnoop did but as "I'm not sure". Just looking today, studios are pretty well booked through June (which is the 9 month mark) but 2-bedrooms are 100% available after the end of March, which is around 6.5 months. So empirically it is easy to say that 2-bedrooms will likely have more availability. I know that's not the assurance you want, but its the best I can do.

 

[EllieBride]

@EllieBride - understanding I did not survey VGF outside of the studios - but here's my opinion:
VGF is made up of 47 2-bedroom lock-offs and 47 2-bedrooms (and 6 grand villas). Since the studios are the most popular, realistically this means there are 47 each of the studios, 1-bedrooms and 2-bedrooms. As my table shows, the studios go VERY fast in October. However, that does NOT mean the 1- or 2-bedrooms go just as fast. (The 1-bedrooms definitely do NOT go as fast as the studios.) I don't think 2-bedrooms closely match studios, but I have no data on it either. So, I would answer your question not as "exceedingly unlikely" as supersnoop did but as "I'm not sure". Just looking today, studios are pretty well booked through June (which is the 9 month mark) but 2-bedrooms are 100% available after the end of March, which is around 6.5 months. So empirically it is easy to say that 2-bedrooms will likely have more availability. I know that's not the assurance you want, but its the best I can do.

Ahhh... if only the March season were the same as the October season. Then I'd be GOLDEN! Thanks for the reply! Maybe what I will do is keep an eye on what happens to the 2BRs for the first two weeks of October 2016 (and maybe that last week of September) to see if they book up once the 11-month window opens. That might give me an indication of what kind of demand there is for Food and Wine trips. I know a lot of people don't want to sink that many points on a 2BR, but this is going to be a special trip for us (bringing my Mom!), so I'm ready to splurge a little.

 

[supersnoop]

I don't think 2-bedrooms closely match studios, but I have no data on it either. So, I would answer your question not as "exceedingly unlikely" as supersnoop did but as "I'm not sure".

I didn't realize that half of the two-bedrooms were dedicated units. The lock-offs will match studios, but the dedicate units may go slower.

 

[EllieBride]

So if you were in my shoes, would you A) roll the dice and try to book at 10 months, or B) have a guaranteed reservation at 11 months at BCV, even if that means borrowing points that you don't really want to use, and totally screwing up how you intend to bank/borrow your points for the next several years AND putting you at the mercy of the 7-month switch/waitlist to actually get a reservation where you ultimately want to be? I think I already know the answer to my own question... When I write it out like that, the answer feels like option A should be obvious. HOWEVER, I am a really risk-averse person, so maybe option B is the way to go. Ugh.