Potential Value of BCV/BWV post StarWars/Toy Story opening?

[off2wales]

I am trying to convince my husband of the value in purchasing BCV now, and am thinking that it is likely the value of the BCV and BWV could go up significantly after the expansion is complete at Hollywood Studios. Anyone else hearing this or thinking this that has more experience with the DVC market?

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I doubt it, really. The value of those contracts is limited by RTU to some extent, and it isn't that difficult to get to DHS from other resorts. Similarly, I don't see AKV going up from Pandora.

 

[ScubaCat]

I agree. Yes there's a walking path, but it's quite a hike, especially when it's 95 degrees and 185% humidity. If it were close like Epcot, then MAYBE.

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

I would assume that that information is already priced into the BCV prices. Other factors will also be relevant, such as there being two fewer years remaining on the contract by then, the popularity of Stormalong Bay, the closeness to Epcot, and the necessity to be an owner to have a shot at Food and Wine/Christmas. I think BCV will hold its value , but I would not count on price appreciation (and if it occurs, it is a nice bonus.)

My advice would be to consider the value to you right now, and if that is the resort you love, move forward if you find a contract you like.

 

[DVC Doctor]

I do not see that as impacting the price.

You also have to remember that BCV is 1/2 way towards ending their 50 year RTU, so in essence, the price will eventually begin to drop, no matter what expansion is done to the parks.

BCV expires in 2042 and will be worth $0 (that is zero dollars) that is only 24 years away. This is significant as DVC is a 50 year RTU contract, thus it has less than 50% of its life left.

Even at $100pp, I personally do not see it going up very much and it may, in fact start to drop. But I do not see the prices crashing until the last 5-10 years left.

 

[ScubaCat]

This is significant as DVC is a 50 year RTU contract, thus it has less than 50% of its life left.

BCV is actually a 40 year contract from inception.

 

[DVC Doctor]

BCV is actually a 40 year contract from inception.

You are technically correct.....DVC is a 50 year (Right To Use) RTU, but some resorts got less than 50 years such as BCV that has 40 years RTU.

Thus, 15 of the 40 years have been used and there is only 25 years left left (37.5% used and 62.5% remaining).

No matter, I am not too confident that prices will dramatically rise much more than the present value and, for sure, sometime in the next 15-20 years they will drop like a rock, and in 25 years it will be worth $0.

Imaging someone selling you a stock or bond that will be guarantee worth $0 in 25 years, unless the dividend is huge, do you really think that will dramatically increase in value?

 

[CarolMN]

IMO, rental requests will increase - especially if Disney brings back Star Wars weekends or initiates other special activities related to Star Wars, That may negatively impact availability at 7 months for times now consdiered to be "low demand" season. DHS is not that bad of a walk from BWV even when it's hot. When one wants to get to DHS for rope drop, walking is faster than walking to the dock and waiting for a boat.

 

[CarolMN]

You are technically correct.....DVC is a 50 year (Right To Use) RTU, but some resorts got less than 50 years such as BCV that has 40 years RTU.

Thus, 15 of the 40 years have been used and there is only 25 years left left (37.5% used and 62.5% remaining).

No matter, I am not too confident that prices will dramatically rise much more than the present value and, for sure, sometime in the next 15-20 years they will drop like a rock, and in 25 years it will be worth $0.

Imaging someone selling you a stock or bond that will be guarantee worth $0 in 25 years, unless the dividend is huge, do you really think that will dramatically increase in value?

Well, probably not a good comparison, since DVC is NOT an investment.

For me, the limited term is an advantage. Don't think I am alone.

 

[DVC Doctor]

I am trying to convince my husband of the value in purchasing BCV now, and am thinking that it is likely the value of the BCV and BWV could go up significantly after the expansion is complete at Hollywood Studios. Anyone else hearing this or thinking this that has more experience with the DVC market?

Well, probably not a good comparison, since DVC is NOT an investment.

For me, the limited term is an advantage. Don't think I am alone.

The original poster is speculating that the value of BCV and BWV will go up SIGNIFICANTLY after HS expansion and as much as I agree that timeshares are NOT investments, the implication is that the original poster is speculating that the value will go up and that in essence is investment talk.

On the other hand, if the question was phrased as - "is BCV/BWV worth $100pp for the next 24 years as a form of pre-paid vacations", then it would be more appropriate than speculating that one reason to buy now is that the value will go up (investment talk) in the future after HS expansion.

Only "offwales" can clarify on the specifics of their question, but it is an "investment fact" that in 2042 the values of BCV and BWV will be $0 and that is a significant decrease in price as compared to today as the initial purchase price will be a 100% gone. On the other hand, 24 years of enjoyment at BCV/BWV is definitely better than paying Disney for a room rental.

Also, the current annual dues of $6.27 plus the $4.17 depreciated cost of a purchase ($100pp divided by 24 years left) = $10.44 per point.

Thus, if you can rent BCV points for around $11-12pp, then it may be better to NOT buy and simply rent. If you do buy, there are many advantages as you will control your own destiny and the entire process, but the savings vs renting is not huge. Also, as an owner, you must use 100% of your points to maximize value as any wasted unused points is an automatic $10.44 loss per point per year.

For the record, I LOVE DVC, but am simply chiming in on a question that someone is considering buying now as they think the prices may go up in the future and that is probably not the best reason to buy. If they love BCV/BWV and intend to use it, then go for it and try to use every point to maximize your "vacation investment"

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

It may be that the OP is not so much speculating that she can sell for an inflated price in a few years. It could be a fear that failure to buy now would lead to a purchase price that they cannot afford in the future.
To this, I would just say that I would go back to the basics. DVC is a luxury purchase. It may save you money, but in all likelihood it will lead to additional spending at Disney. If you can do it without financing, and you love Disney, it can be a great purchase.

 

[DougEMG]

Thus, if you can rent BCV points for around $11-12pp, then it may be better to NOT buy and simply rent. If you do buy, there are many advantages as you will control your own destiny and the entire process, but the savings vs renting is not huge. Also, as an owner, you must use 100% of your points to maximize value as any wasted unused points is an automatic $10.44 loss per point per year.

If anyone wants to rent BCV points to me at $11-12 a point I'll take as many as I can get. That rental price is completely unrealistic. The lowest you are going to be able to rent BCV for is $15 a point and that is only going to increase over time.

Star Wars is already a know item so the price of BWV and BCV should already have that built into current prices. What will influence the future price of those resorts is the years remaining and how much of a saving there is still to be had in those remaining years as compared to renting or booking through Disney.

What is a for sure thing though is that the demand to stay at those two resorts at the 7 month mark will only increase once Star Wars is completed.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I think the impact is going to be as follows:

• Boardwalk, YC and BC rates are going to go up.
• Demand for BCV/BWV rentals will go up.
• Availability of (especially) studios past about 9ish months will get weak even in DVC low season.
• Everyone who owns who wants it for themselves will walk reservations.
• People who don't have points there will either not be able to book, or will get extreme split stays and waitlist fun.

This may put some pressure on resale pricing, but at some point the competition for bookings + RTU will combine to create a cap.

Wild card, as ever, is new DVC with connectivity to Epcot and/or DHS. Imma looking at possible CBR + gondola here. Won't have the glamor of BCV/BWV, but will be new 50-year points.

 

[kniquy]

Probably limited impact as far as increase in prices -- I don't think star wars land is expected to open until 2019 so another 2 years and 2 less years on those already limited contracts. I wouldn't foresee an increase in prices, but maybe more they will hold where they are vs taking a slight drop in prices. Honestly there is nothing getting in the way of people getting to any park from any resort, there is only a slightly shorter travel time compared to other resorts.

I guess one thing to look at is the AKL market with the opening of pandora -- Are people going to want to stay at AKL more now that they will have a short bus ride to that park with the new land?

 

[_auroraborealis_]

As franchises go, Star Wars is somewhat larger and more popular than Avatar.

 

[CarolMN]

.....(snip).....

I guess one thing to look at is the AKL market with the opening of pandora -- Are people going to want to stay at AKL more now that they will have a short bus ride to that park with the new land?

In addition to the popularity of the franchise, the transportation advantage for the BWV, is about the relatively short walk. (I don't think a bus ride, even a short one, is an enticement).

While I do not think that contract prices will be noticeably impacted due to the opening of Star Wars, I do think the opening will increase demand from renters. A good chunk of them already know that you have to book early to get the "best" locations. If Disney's net prices for hotel rooms continue to increase, so with rental prices. IMO, the future value of the DVC contracts will depend mostly on Disney's prices (and demand for on site experiences).

 

[wdrl]

Don't forget that the Caribbean Beach project and the gondola transportation system should both be operational in 2-3 years, about the same time that Star Wars Land opens to the public. We don't know much about the Caribbean Resort project, although the consensus is that it will become the 11th DVC resort at Walt Disney World. Regardless whether it becomes a DVC resort or a straight cash resort, it will become another resort competing with BCV and BWV.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

AKV is already popular enough with renters that agencies have re-designated AKV points as "premium" for 11-month windows. So the general availability of AKV to owners is not necessarily an indicator of its popularity to rent.

 

[Dean]

I doubt it'll make much difference. In some ways BCV may already be the most expensive points on property. I don't think one can make the case it's a good choice because of potential increases alone.

 

[bigtony777]

I don't think that AKV with Pandora is comparable to BWV and Star Wars Land. You have to take bus transportation to every park from AKV. While at BWV you can walk to 2 parks. It is most similar to BLT and MK. People are much more likely to book there if they are planning on going to MK most of their trip.

Who knows what will happen. If prices do have a short term spike, it might be tempting to sell at that time.