Polynesian Resale Listings

[atthebeachclub]

It isn’t just Polynesian that seems to be drying up; the aggregator sites are showing about 10% fewer contracts than a few weeks ago even. This might be an annualized effect based off dues and tax returns, but I got nervous enough about it that I slightly overpaid on a contract at Bay Lake because I worried nothing better might come along in my use year. It isn’t the end of the world, but I wonder what the market is up to. Polynesian looks very different than when I started following these things around February, however.

 

[Headless Horseman]

This would be great data to have for a prospective buyer or seller, but to my original question I guess the data doesn't exist - unless one of these sites allows you to view listings from previous months. Based on my memory though, I would say 90% of Poly contracts have been scooped up since the beginning of the year!

 

[Tatebeck]

For the other resorts I think it's just a buyers market. Lower prices so a good time to buy, but not many sellers are selling unless they have to or they REALLY want out.

 

[ocdb8r1]

It isn’t just Polynesian that seems to be drying up; the aggregator sites are showing about 10% fewer contracts than a few weeks ago even. This might be an annualized effect based off dues and tax returns, but I got nervous enough about it that I slightly overpaid on a contract at Bay Lake because I worried nothing better might come along in my use year. It isn’t the end of the world, but I wonder what the market is up to. Polynesian looks very different than when I started following these things around February, however.

This isn't what I have observed. From my tracking in the last 12 months, the listing totals I have been able to see peaked at a bit above 2000 in Dec/Jan (when they always seem to seasonally peak as annual dues statements sink in) and then they slowly dropped to about 1800 where they have largely stayed steady + or - 50 listings. Yes, they do seem to be on the lower side in the last couple of weeks, currently in the 1760 range but this still is vastly above the historic (pre-covid and when there was a reasonably active ROFR from DVC) numbers of resales. I will admit we didn't come close to the peak of the previous year which was over 2200.

As for Poly....I feel like it's like everything on this board....we like to be active and talk about whatever is shiny and new. Eighteen months ago all the talk was about VDH and the revelation of the TOT drove many to quickly snap up VGC contracts, pushing up their prices and making them as rare as a dodo. Now there are 45 VGC contracts on the market (which is extremely high compared to averages 24-36 months ago). It's all part of the normal market ebb and flow, but I do think we're seeing a sustained period of relatively depressed prices given the lack of ROFR and LOTS of supply coming online.

 

[Headless Horseman]

I saw 7 new PVB listings suddenly pop up today all in the $165 - $170 range. If these sell quickly it would seem to indicate prices on the rise.

 

[Electron_si]

If the direct points are reasonable when released and the resale continues to be in demand (and the price inches closer between the two) I will probably look at selling my resale and buying 300 direct. I would like the option of staying at Riviera, the new cabins @ FWL, and Disneyland Hotel in the future. Not to mention the small perks and not feeling like a second class citizen at times. I just have to figure out what is an acceptable differential between resale and direct.

We were in this same boat recently and I just ended up doubling down. We own 200 PVB resale points and I thought about selling and buying 300 at RIV to maximize incentives. But when I thought about it having a diverse ownership of multiple resorts and only have 1 contract that is direct restricted I opted to keep the flexibility and purchase 150 RIV direct. This gives us 200 points of potential home advantage when the tower opens and these points are worth more now then when we bought them so I feel pretty good about how we ended up.

 

[JackosinDIS]

We’re up to $209 on the PVB listing price now!!!! And they still seem to be selling… I wonder what these are actually going for…

 

[chazas]

Amazing the effect on the market of Disney buying back just a few contracts. They don't have to buy them all, just a few, and look what happens.

 

[Tatebeck]

I don't know why they would be selling for over 200. After incentives that will probably be around direct pricing

 

[vdangelo239]

Sold a 50 point Poly contract just 3 weeks ago for $169...now I'm sitting here wondering if I should've waited to sell it Nah - super happy for the buyer and I got exactly to the dollar what I paid for it.

This is wild w the prices - haven't seen this since before GFV went back on sale. I do hope people dont overspend...I think this is a blip that is going to course correct once the new points go on sale.

 

[DVC Doctor]

We’re up to $209 on the PVB listing price now!!!! And they still seem to be selling… I wonder what these are actually going for…

The fair market price for Poly is about $160pp (average) depending on the size of the contract, number of available points, etc.

The small 50pt or so contracts always command a premium and the larger points are usually lower.

I don't see anything to support a $200+pp price at this moment.

 

[ajpruett]

We’re up to $209 on the PVB listing price now!!!! And they still seem to be selling… I wonder what these are actually going for…

Two offers under contract for $156. It was suggested as a bottom after Disney bought at $155. I'm wondering if DVC store is coaching sellers to stay firm as I had several refuse to negotiate. Definitely seems to be trending up toward 170. My offers were on Mon and Tues. Good contracts that aren't stripped.

 

[DVCsloth]

Not sure what the rush to buy is right now? Maybe new owners want to want to buy more points at current owner incentives when they go on sale direct.

 

[DebbieB]

We’re up to $209 on the PVB listing price now!!!! And they still seem to be selling… I wonder what these are actually going for…

I wouldn’t pay that. Not much more you’ll get direct and have unrestricted points.

 

[Coronator]

The poly bubble is getting absolutely silly. You can buy RIV cheaper direct now after discounts.

There’s been nothing about this tower that has been disclosed that warrant these kinds of resale prices. I just don’t get it.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

At this point those that wanted cheap Poly resale have missed the boat (me included). The prudent thing to do is sit on your hands and wait. Kind of like a stock that's had a blow off top and everyone has piled on. Eventually, if you wait, you'll get a better price.

 

[ajpruett]

Not sure what the rush to buy is right now? Maybe new owners want to want to buy more points at current owner incentives when they go on sale direct.

Disney is buying them back so there is the concern that prices will just rise. Plus, it will be the newest resort grandfathered in to the most current restrictions so resale value will hold, especially with end date. Dues are priced right and about to have the largest room versatility at a monorail resort (close to TTS) with good food on site.

 

[intamin]

We’re up to $209 on the PVB listing price now!!!! And they still seem to be selling… I wonder what these are actually going for…

Not sure what the rush to buy is right now? Maybe new owners want to want to buy more points at current owner incentives when they go on sale direct.

I’m getting the same vibes as when people went insane over VGC after the VDH transient tax news broke. Or hell remember when people were hoarding toilet paper in early COVID? People are nuts

 

[one11sgt]

I don't know why they would be selling for over 200. After incentives that will probably be around direct pricing

Because they are 50 point contracts and there are no directive incentives on 50 point contracts.

 

[Headless Horseman]

I don't know why they would be selling for over 200. After incentives that will probably be around direct pricing

To be clear though, the one listed for $209 is just an asking price and is about $40 higher than the next highest available contract. I think it's more of a fishing expedition at this point and seems doubtful that it will sell for that. But prices are definitely trending up with the lack of supply.