Polynesian 144 points

[KANSAS]

If you needed a 144 Polynesian Bungalow contract

would you get (1) 144 Point contract
to save on the closing costs
of
(2) Contracts
100 points and 44 points

or the extra closing costs is worth it
to have the flexibility to sale that 44 Point contract very easily

at a later date

 

[ziravan]

If you needed a 144 Polynesian Bungalow contract

would you get (1) 144 Point contract
to save on the closing costs
of
(2) Contracts
100 points and 44 points

or the extra closing costs is worth it
to have the flexibility to sale that 44 Point contract very easily

at a later date

If I were buying more than 130 Poly points, I'd buy a guaranteed week.

In fact, I did. I bought a week 44 (1st full week of Nov F&W, some years MNSSHP, some years MVMCP, rarely both, Jersey Week, F&W marathon weekend) Lake View for 168 points.

I'd buy fixed week.

 

[ziravan]

http://www.disboards.com/threads/purchasing-a-guaranteed-week.3436056/

You said for bungalow points, even if you break the fixed week each year, a week 48-50 standard or lake view fixed week will have lots of resale value.

That is the reason to consider breaking the contract up, smaller contracts are worth more.

Only about 2% of Poly contracts are fixed weeks. A Fall fixed week Poly contract would be a rare bird once Poly sells out.

If I were looking to maximize resale value, instead of breaking up the contract, I'd buy a fixed week, even if you never plan to use it.

If, after Poly sells out, studios are hard to book in Dec, a fixed week will be a very sought after contract.

 

[ziravan]

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

If 144 points, meets your needs, I would suggest a single 150 point contract. Nice round numbers could be easier to sell, and you can always use the extra points.

At that range, it sounds like you are more likely to be getting a studio than a bungalow. I toured the bungalows when I was there earlier this month (in a villa), and while they were quite nice, I could get the same size accommodations at the Grand Floridian for about half the points, or I could get a 3 bedroom at the GF for the same number of points as a bungalow.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

If you needed a 144 Polynesian Bungalow contract

would you get (1) 144 Point contract
to save on the closing costs
of
(2) Contracts
100 points and 44 points

or the extra closing costs is worth it
to have the flexibility to sale that 44 Point contract very easily

at a later date

Your other post states that you sold your previous DVC in 2007 so you might not be aware that DVC has done 2 extensive point reallocations since that time and some minor adjustments in other years Where during the time you owned before you could buy the exact points you needed for each year there were then quite a few people who were hit hard by the reallocations and could no longer take the same length of vacation that they could before. Just something to keep in mind.

For PVB I don't think there's going to be a huge difference between a 144 point contract or a 100 and a 44. I'd save the extra cost of splitting and just buy one.

 

[Dean]

If you needed a 144 Polynesian Bungalow contract

would you get (1) 144 Point contract
to save on the closing costs
of
(2) Contracts
100 points and 44 points

or the extra closing costs is worth it
to have the flexibility to sale that 44 Point contract very easily

at a later date

I would not buy there without buying a fixed week even if I had to buy a few extra or less points and even if it wasn't a week I planned to use.

 

[zavandor]

The reason why you read a lot of comments about a fixed week, expecially for the PVB is that the future is a bit uncertain for this resort.
Many think that the point cost for the bungalow is do high that after the first excitment period, they may stay there unbooked for most of the year. If this will happen and cause very high competition for the studios, DVC may decide to reallocate point and make studios more expensive while bungalow cheaper. If this will happen and you have a fixed week, nothing will change for you, while having a contract, you'll be able to book less nights for the same number of points.
However this is just speculation at the moment, future is really uncertain for this resort.

 

[Dean]

The reason why you read a lot of comments about a fixed week, expecially for the PVB is that the future is a bit uncertain for this resort.
Many think that the point cost for the bungalow is do high that after the first excitment period, they may stay there unbooked for most of the year. If this will happen and cause very high competition for the studios, DVC may decide to reallocate point and make studios more expensive while bungalow cheaper. If this will happen and you have a fixed week, nothing will change for you, while having a contract, you'll be able to book less nights for the same number of points.
However this is just speculation at the moment, future is really uncertain for this resort.

I think that's part of it but a large part of my reason for recommending one ONLY buy a fixed week if buying retail where it's an option is simply to give options. In a perfect would one would travel the same time most of the time and buy that week that generally coincides but even if not, one loses nothing by doing the fixed week and gains both options and leverage for the future. That assumes that the number of points is in the range one is looking to buy anyway, buying a lot more points doesn't justify the option but a few more does.

 

[ziravan]

If current trends continue, the first two weeks of Dec will be prime booking periods and Poly will be 25% oversold on studio bookings (25% of bungalow points with most contracts in the 100-150 point range).

What are the chances of a monorail resort that is 25% oversold for studios booking out at 11 months in Dec? I think very good.

I believe a fixed week is a brilliant hedge on the future. If VGF owners knew then what they know now (that studios might not be avail at 11 months during peak DVC times) the resort would have maxed out fixed week studio owners in Dec. Of course, just like with VGF, we won't know with Poly until it sells out, and then it'll be too late to buy fixed weeks.

But here's the real win-win. Let's suppose in 5 years that DVC moves to balance out its booking patterns and makes moves to reduce demand in Dec. How would they do that? By reallocating Dec to a higher point cost. Given that they now must overcome ingrained behavior, it would probably be a major reallocation, like the weekend/weekday reallocation.

In that case, fixed week owners would be protected against the increase. The fixed week is redeemable for a set number of points, or the week, no matter what the week would otherwise cost in the future.

 

[ziravan]

Two other scenarios.

Fixed weeks will be protected from a reallocation to make bungalows cheaper, that's already been mentioned.

But what if DVC listens to feedback and reclassifies first floor Moorea as not Lake View?

I can actually see them fixing both that complaint and the standard studio parking lot view complaint.

My fixed week guarantees me a "Lake View" studio.

If they did such a reclassification, the number of Lake Views move from 72 to 48. It starts to become a real niche category. The chances of THAT booking out at 8am 11 months is much higher.

Wait, it gets worse. If 16 owners get wise and buy a fixed week (that's the maximum number that could be sold with a base of 48 units), then there'll really only be 32 units avail at 11 months in Dec.

Now demand is being kicked by the throttled supply.

Now. It's 10 yrs later, many Poly owners are upset about the inability to book Lake Views at Christmas and you just happen to be tired of your Poly contract - and put your week 50 fixed week Lake View contract on the market.

This is the whole point of the thread, resale value: how to buy points that maximize resale value.

How much would that fixed week contract be worth?

Today, that contract is worth 164 points. If I were thinking about buying 144 points and looking to hedge resale value, I'd buy 20 more and buy a fixed week 50 Lake View.

Besides, who couldn't use 20 more points?

 

[Dean]

If current trends continue, the first two weeks of Dec will be prime booking periods and Poly will be 25% oversold on studio bookings (25% of bungalow points with most contracts in the 100-150 point range).

What are the chances of a monorail resort that is 25% oversold for studios booking out at 11 months in Dec? I think very good.

I believe a fixed week is a brilliant hedge on the future. If VGF owners knew then what they know now (that studios might not be avail at 11 months during peak DVC times) the resort would have maxed out fixed week studio owners in Dec. Of course, just like with VGF, we won't know with Poly until it sells out, and then it'll be too late to buy fixed weeks.

But here's the real win-win. Let's suppose in 5 years that DVC moves to balance out its booking patterns and makes moves to reduce demand in Dec. How would they do that? By reallocating Dec to a higher point cost. Given that they now must overcome ingrained behavior, it would probably be a major reallocation, like the weekend/weekday reallocation.

In that case, fixed week owners would be protected against the increase. The fixed week is redeemable for a set number of points, or the week, no matter what the week would otherwise cost in the future.

IMO the best use of owning a fixed week is owning what you want, getting a year ahead on points, booking what you want on points (? with banked points) then taking points on that week. You get the benefit and guarantee of the fixed week but save the extra points.

Two other scenarios.

Fixed weeks will be protected from a reallocation to make bungalows cheaper, that's already been mentioned.

But what if DVC listens to feedback and reclassifies first floor Moorea as not Lake View?

I can actually see them fixing both that complaint and the standard studio parking lot view complaint.

My fixed week guarantees me a "Lake View" studio.

If they did such a reclassification, the number of Lake Views move from 72 to 48. It starts to become a real niche category. The chances of THAT booking out at 8am 11 months is much higher.

Wait, it gets worse. If 16 owners get wise and buy a fixed week (that's the maximum number that could be sold with a base of 48 units), then there'll really only be 32 units avail at 11 months in Dec.

Now demand is being kicked by the throttled supply.

Now. It's 10 yrs later, many Poly owners are upset about the inability to book Lake Views at Christmas and you just happen to be tired of your Poly contract - and put your week 50 fixed week Lake View contract on the market.

This is the whole point of the thread, resale value: how to buy points that maximize resale value.

How much would that fixed week contract be worth?

Today, that contract is worth 164 points. If I were thinking about buying 144 points and looking to hedge resale value, I'd buy 20 more and buy a fixed week 50 Lake View.

Besides, who couldn't use 20 more points?

I haven't seen the legal wording on this issue. I wonder if it specifies a view type or just location. Certainly fixed weeks in the extreme numbers would affect availability but not a lot other than high demand weeks. Buyers there should be aware this is a potential issue though it's a much bigger possibility for VGF than the Poly at this point.