Poly Tower decision and RIV restrictions

[Brian Noble]

I'm not buying the idea that new every new member Disney sells points to will continue to be a clueless rube, unaware that the restrictions carry certain negatives, and won't be aware of and consider the resale market,

Every? No. Enough for DVC to keep chugging along? You bet.

If that's not true, then somehow DVC is being sold to people who are qualitatively better educated and more rational about timeshare purchases than those who buy Marriott, Hilton, Hyatt, Wyndham, etc. etc. etc.

Could be true. It's also possible that Disney's Reality Distortion Field rivals that of the master.

 

[DL1WDW2]

Am I supposed to believe all of this has been legal and the board members did not act on “ insider knowledge “ before they released a trust rumor .
Would have been nice to stock up on cheap resale points in advance .

 

[DonMacGregor]

Every? No. Enough for DVC to keep chugging along? You bet.

If that's not true, then somehow DVC is being sold to people who are qualitatively better educated and more rational about timeshare purchases than those who buy Marriott, Hilton, Hyatt, Wyndham, etc. etc. etc.

Could be true. It's also possible that Disney's Reality Distortion Field rivals that of the master.

Oh, I'm sure there are enough to "keep chugging along". The point remains, that even if it's a 10-15% reduction in sales (between new members and add-ons), it's tangible and easily eliminated by maintaining the restrictions. "Hey Bob, sure we could have sold another 100,000 points last month if we didn't have those restrictions, but be sure to let the shareholders know that we're still chugging along".

As for being quantitatively better educated, I wouldn't suggest that. I would suggest that it is a far smaller ecosystem, and as the populace becomes broadly more educated regarding timeshares in general, and DVC in particular, pulling the wool may become a tad more difficult. Inevitably, as DVC becomes more and more expensive, at least some percentage of potential new owners will take that extra time to do a little more research and won't be swooped up in the Mouse Ears and Pixie Dust. That, and the minimum buy-ins for direct purchases into those other systems can be almost 30% less than DVC (although they do currently have that 100-point no Blue Card special going on right now that brings DVC down into the vicinity of most of those other operators). You might just think a tad longer about shelling out $30k versus 20 if you know that you don't have 4,372 resorts to choose from, and if you do sell, the new buyer can stay at exactly one. Having said all that (I know, TLDR), for new members, I don't think the restrictions move the needle much now, and might only move it slightly more down the road. Regardless, I'm not saying they won't pull in plenty of new rubes. It's the add-ons that I was more focused on.

My original point was that they will be far less likely to coerce existing members to jump on a $250-$300 PP add-on, versus a $25-50 PP resale purchase in the absence of restrictions. How many points did VDH sell during the current member preview period, and how many subsequent contracts have been reported in the VDH thread on here by current members adding on? If you end up back in the situation where any DVC point can be used even at the shiniest new resort, but in the new reality of resale points possibly as low as 1/5th the price of a new resort (which HASN'T ever been the case before), then how many members are going to be compelled to spend say $300 or more on that new resort, when they can use their $25 points? The 7-month gamble becomes a much better proposition. So I don't get 11-month booking priority and I may have to settle for table scraps, combined reservations, or waitlists, but at 75%-80% off, who isn't going to take that bet?

Also, you like referencing the "Disney Reality Distortion Field", but given the millions (billions?) of points/timeshare weeks that have been sold by god-knows how many other timeshare operations, to some number of rubes exponentially larger than the DVC member cohort, I'd argue that the "timeshare distortion field" in general is absolutely not limited to Disney. The myriad "Get Out of Your Timeshare" charlatans are proof of that.

* And I'm not suggesting that all new buyers of DVC direct are rubes, I'm only referring to those who go in with little to no research and have no clue as to how the system works, what the restrictions are, etc. If someone is well-educated in DVC and decides that the system works for them and they see benefit, then there's nothing wrong with that.

 

[zavandor]

I fired off two emails. When we purchased our Riviera contracts. we were told more than once that resale restrictions would be included with all future DVC offerings. I was willing to overlook it at BPK, but not this time. Fool me once ...

And even though I get what I paid for with my RR contracts, DVC's actions have directly lowered the value of my contracts for the sake of boosting sales at other properties. DVD is NOT being consistent. Remember that CCV was added right before RR and they were not folded into the existing association, so it's not unreasonable that RR owners assumed that future additions, like at VGF and Poly, would be new associations.

I do not understand. Why your RIV contract is worth less now that we know the new tower will probably join the existing association?

 

[theMoreDisneytheBetter]

I do not understand. Why your RIV contract is worth less now that we know the new tower will probably join the existing association?

Because when sold the idea was that Riviera was the start of a new way of doing resorts (with restrictions) and all new ones would have them as well. VGF2 as part of VGF1 makes sense because it was a flip of an existing building. But if Poly 2’s new tower is part of the same association, then maybe future resorts won’t be restricted, and then having this one oddball property with restrictions makes it less desirable.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Oh, no doubt! Riviera is not gonna be brand spanking new for many more years either. Feel like something has to give, but that’s up to….somebody

I think Riviera will still sell out eventually even if it keeps the restrictions. It’s still a nice property in a nice location, and a lot of DVC direct purchasers are absolutely clueless about what resale restrictions mean (if they are even aware of them at all), which is what DVD was banking on to begin with to sell restricted points. I just don’t think it sells nearly as well as PVB2.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Check. It is a new building compared to VGF

That’s a huge difference though. VGF was a refurbed hotel building with only hotel rooms. This is going to be a brand new 1 br, 2 br, & 3 br tower. Also, Poly is at least as popular (and possibly more popular) with the masses compared to VGF.

 

[Sandisw]

I think Riviera will still sell out eventually even if it keeps the restrictions. It’s still a nice property in a nice location, and a lot of DVC direct purchasers are absolutely clueless about what resale restrictions mean (if they are even aware of them at all), which is what DVD was banking on to begin with to sell restricted points. I just don’t think it sells nearly as well as PVB2.

I think it depends on the price difference, We saw that with VGF. It did not sell that well when it was more expensive. And, while the new rooms were just studios, and refurbished hotel rooms at that, they marketed it as a resort with all room sizes.

So, I think it is going to depend on the difference in pricing. I think the first few months will follow like VGF and VDH did.

But, after that, it will be very interesting to see how it goes when it will be competing against, most likely, several resorts that will cost less.

 

[zavandor]

Because when sold the idea was that Riviera was the start of a new way of doing resorts (with restrictions) and all new ones would have them as well. VGF2 as part of VGF1 makes sense because it was a flip of an existing building. But if Poly 2’s new tower is part of the same association, then maybe future resorts won’t be restricted, and then having this one oddball property with restrictions makes it less desirable.

But why is your contract worth less now?
Worth less in an economic sense? If you resell it, who buys it still won't have access to the Poly tower, nothing changes there.
It's certainly not worth less for its power to book resorts, you'll be able to book the Poly Tower anyway, whatever the choice on the association.

The only thing is lost, is the feeling of exclusivity that you thought you had. Is this it?

 

[Sandisw]

But why is your contract worth less now?
Worth less in an economic sense? If you resell it, who buys it still won't have access to the Poly tower, nothing changes there.
It's certainly not worth less for its power to book resorts, you'll be able to book the Poly Tower anyway, whatever the choice on the association.

The only thing is lost, is the feeling of exclusivity that you thought you had. Is this it?

I think the thinking has been that once there are more restricted resorts in the system, and more resale points were locked out of them, the resale value for those restricted resort might stabilize as it would no longer be an outlier,

So, if Poly tower had become a new resort with restrictions, and CFW came out with them, by the end of 2024, there would be 4 restricted resorts and thus, the resale market might stabilize.

For someone like me, I obviously don’t care as resale value was not something I considered, but I can see how this move leaves more doubts in people’s mind that DVD isn’t as committed to getting this whole resale restrictions strategy up and running.

Just not sure where people are getting the idea that people who are indifferent to resale restrictions wanted exclusivity.

 

[Brian Noble]

My original point was that they will be far less likely to coerce existing members to jump on a $250-$300 PP add-on, versus a $25-50 PP resale purchase in the absence of restrictions.

On this, I agree completely. The FOMO is real.

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

I think the thinking has been that once there are more restricted resorts in the system, and more resale points were locked out of them, the resale value for those restricted resort might stabilize as it would no longer be an outlier,

So, if Poly tower had become a new resort with restrictions, and CFW came out with them, by the end of 2024, there would be 4 restricted resorts and thus, the resale market might stabilize.

For someone like me, I obviously don’t care as resale value was not something I considered, but I can see how this move leaves more doubts in people’s mind that DVD isn’t as committed to getting this whole resale restrictions strategy up and running.

Just not sure where people are getting the idea that people who are indifferent to resale restrictions wanted exclusivity.

The fact that you can only stay at one resort is what affects the resale price of a restricted resort. What goes on at any other resort should have no relevance to the resale price.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

DVC first sold OKW 32 years ago. For the next 28 years every new DVC resort entered the program under the same terms w/ resale owners able to use their points in the same way that original owners used them. Guides even used the resale value of DVC points as a selling point & to distinguish DVC from ‘other’ timeshares. Four years ago DVC threw all of that out the window when they opened Riviera, thus one can argue that every owner who bought in the 3 decades before Riviera opened was mislead & DVC devalued those existing owners resale value as well as future resale buyer’s ability to use their points, just like they mislead & devalued existing VGF owner’s points when they added BPK to VGF.
DVC has changed other things as well, like getting member perks, originally resale owners had the same perks as direct owners. Then they took away the ability of resale owners to use points for exchanges. Then they took away all member perks from resale owners. Each time existing resale owners were grandfathered in & not impacted directly - but those take aways made DVC less valuable to direct owners looking to sell & resale buyers.
They’ve also played around w/ how many points you had to buy to qualify as a direct member for perks - at one point it was as low as 25 or 35 direct points got you a blue card, now it’s 150 direct points.
The next big resort was supposed to be Reflections - they announced it, yet their plans changed. Poly was originally supposed to have new builds + a lazy river, yet their plans changed & they opted for a hotel room flip + Bungalows.
Given that history, the fact that DVC is changing the rules yet again isn’t a surprise to folks who’ve owned for awhile, for the new Riviera owners who are surprised by the fact that they’re still the only restricted resort on the east coast, you likely won’t be the only restricted east coast resort for long, but do expect more changes going forward. I wouldn’t be surprised if DVC follows other Timeshare companies & comes up w/ a ‘point washing’ scheme where restricted points can be made unrestricted via paying $$$, or DVC dumps a lot of unsold Riviera points into the Trust model they just surveyed owners about.
I don’t like that they’re always changing the rules, but it comes as no surprise when they do given their past actions.

You make some solid points, thanks for sharing.

 

[Sandisw]

The fact that you can only stay at one resort is what affects the resale price of a restricted resort. What goes on at any other resort should have no relevance to the resale price.

But, down the line, it could. If more and more resorts are one resort products, then people choose based on resort relative to others.

Right now, RIV is the only WDW with them. If BLT, VGF, PVB, and CCV all had them, you don’t think that the resale values might be more comparable? I do.

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

But, down the line, it could. If more and more resorts are one resort products, then people choose based on resort relative to others.

Right now, RIV is the only WDW with them. If BLT, VGF, PVB, and CCV all had them, you don’t think that the resale values might be more comparable? I do.

I think the resale price of Riviera will increase, potentially significantly, after it has reached sold-out direct pricing status. The resort is very desirable and people will want to buy in or add on to their points there and not pay sold-out prices to Disney. The draw of Riviera itself will affect the price.

 

[Sandisw]

I think the resale price of Riviera will increase, potentially significantly, after it has reached sold-out direct pricing status. The resort is very desirable and people will want to buy in or add on to their points there and not pay sold-out prices to Disney. The draw of Riviera itself will affect the price.

I think it will too..but just trying to explain why some might see this move as disappointing…basically just kicks the can down the road on when things might go this way.

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

I guess my point is I think whatever is going on at another resort has nothing to do with Riviera having restrictions and its resale price. If someone is concerned about taking a hit when they sell direct points in the near term, then resale in the first place would have been less risky. And that is true for any resort. Riviera is still in active sales and resale prices will increase when it’s sold out. If people have direct RIV points and keep them then there is no restrictions issue. What is the concern?… They wish they bought resale at another resort instead of direct at Riviera? If you like Riviera and plan to enjoy DVC for a long time then buying Riviera direct at the incentivized pricing is a good move. How is whatever decision DCV makes at Poly or VGF for that matter actually impacting their situation? It seems like it has no effect and they should be happily enjoying their Riviera points at Riviera or wherever else they want to stay. If you fear having to sell direct points, don’t buy direct. Anywhere.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

If you fear having to sell direct points, don’t buy direct. Anywhere.

I guess that’s the most logical plan going forward. You’re right it’s not necessarily the value or RIV changing in a significant way, DVD did that by instilling the original restrictions on a single resort. It’s the value of direct purchases that has really lessened and makes significantly way less sense now. Even at the restricted resorts, just buy the restricted resale contract for way cheaper even if you can only use them there, if you love it enough you’ll only want to use it there anyway.

 

[maui22]

That’s a huge difference though. VGF was a refurbed hotel building with only hotel rooms. This is going to be a brand new 1 br, 2 br, & 3 br tower. Also, Poly is at least as popular (and possibly more popular) with the masses compared to VGF.

VGF is also extremely popular. Best Easter and Christmas resort for many of us. Even has walking access to MK now. Flagship WDW resort. Personally, I think RIV and VGF are the most elegant resorts and set the bar for deluxe.

With the tower expansion, the entire Polynesian Resort (hotel + DVC) has a maximum occupancy near the level of SSR. Unlike SSR, there will be one feature pool and 2 quiet pools. The feature pool often has times where finding a chair is near impossible. Ordering a drink at the pool bar was more than a 30 minute wait on our last trip.

Can’t even get into Trader Sam’s many times because visitors line up hours beforehand. Even worse when they have special tikimugs.

Polynesian only gained 1 quick service restaurant with the tower. Last time we stayed, there were times where ordering at the QS could take 1 hour to receive food.

The resort is very personal for me because it was my father’s last family trip before passing away. It will always mean Ohana. Having written that, I very much fear the Polynesian Resort can’t handle the number of people staying and visiting there. Disney has never had a resort with the number of guests and daily visitors it will see.

 

[maui22]

I think it will too..but just trying to explain why some might see this move as disappointing…basically just kicks the can down the road on when things might go this way.

Riviera is going to look better and better when people post about the Polynesian capacity issues caused by the tower addition.