This year, it was pretty fierce. Even if you were online at exactly 8AM, there were holes occurring pretty quickly, and waitlisting was often required.
I swapped a reservation at 7 months in October, and by 10AM there were even availability holes for my week at SSR. My week did NOT include Columbus Day or Halloween.
Poly also has the continuing question mark of if/when Disney declare more units. The resort is 62% declared and eligible for points bookings, but maybe 35-40% sold right now.