(poll) When will Disney Cruises resume? (based on the current news and your gut instinct)

[Donna3271]

Ugh... We are on the Oc 19 to Bermuda. I was optimistic, but now not so much.

 

[Bellecruiser]

We are on the Sept18 Transatlantic on the Magic. I really really want to go!

 

[DisneYE]

Airlines aren't the issue. The castmembers likely are going to have to pass through several countries to get to Florida, countries that may prohibit entry without a vaccine. That is why I say the vaccines will HAVE to happen in their homelands. Can you imagine 1,000 people per DCL ship from around the world .....4,000 total unvaccinated......flying into Florida? Talk about a Super Spreader event! I just don't see that happening. Which is why the restart of cruising is sooooooooo complicated.

I don't disagree with you but currently there are at least 4 daily flights coming into FL (MCO and MIA) from Brazil, a country ravaged by the virus and new variants...4x flights a day that's at least 500 ppl a day from Brazil alone... take another 5-10 flights from other countries and you've got at least 2k ppl arriving internationally into FL every day. That's nuts. but it tells you thousands of ppl arrive in FL every day and there is no major evidence of 'super spreaders' or cases skyrocketing in the state. It's doable.

 

[tvguy]

I don't disagree with you but currently there are at least 4 daily flights coming into FL (MCO and MIA) from Brazil, a country ravaged by the virus and new variants...4x flights a day that's at least 500 ppl a day from Brazil alone... take another 5-10 flights from other countries and you've got at least 2k ppl arriving internationally into FL every day. That's nuts. but it tells you thousands of ppl arrive in FL every day and there is no major evidence of 'super spreaders' or cases skyrocketing in the state. It's doable.

Florida is not the issue. It is the other nations that crew members will have to pass through from placers like Indonesia to get Florida. Places that may require vaccines or quarantines to even pass through their airports. But yes, IMHO Florida has not been smart with the pandemic.

 

[Clojel]

I think as soon as the CDC okays cruising, cruising will occur. I don’t think vaccinating staff with be that much of a stumbling block. I already know several people who have “cut the line” to get vaccinated bc of who they know...and knowing Disney is the ULTIMATE “who you know”. They’ll figure out a way to cut the line to get their staff vaccinated. Money talks.

 

[bcwife76]

I voted for Fall 2021 as well. We have a mid November cruise on the Dream that I think has a very good chance of sailing. However, there is a good chance we won't be on it, either due to high school schedule (stupid quadmester system ) or because Canada still has the stupid mandatory 14 day quarantine in place when we return.

 

[dvcgirl67]

I voted for 2022. I think we're going to see case numbers continue to drop and get pretty low this summer, but I do think we'll see the virus return in the fall. Not like Fall of 2020, but I do think we're going to see numbers increase to a certain degree. Children won't be vaccinated and schools will largely open in the fall for in person learning. They're going to transmit the virus.

Right now people are clamoring to get the vaccine, but there will be too many Americans who won't get it. I think we may see DCL start in the fall of 2021 with limited cruises only to have to pull back again. I'm sure they'll require testing to board, but that won't guarantee that infected people don't get on board. Maybe they'll require vaccines on "test cruises"? But can they do that for everyone when they open it up to all customers. I mean...I'm sure they can, they're a private company, but I can see law suits upon law suits over that . We all know that there will be people who claim they can't get the vaccine (whether that's true or not).....the same way that we saw idiots with printed sheets of paper claiming they were exempt from wearing a mask. And right now what proof do you have that you even received a vaccine? There are already stories of fake CDC vaccine cards out there.

 

[WishUponAStarryNight]

Children won't be vaccinated and schools will largely open in the fall for in person learning. They're going to transmit the virus.

I agree that kids won’t yet be vaccinated, but my son has been in school full-time since September and there’s been zero in school transmission. There have been isolated cases throughout the school year, but between the in school precautions and contact tracing/quarantine, in person learning has been uninterrupted. There may be a spike in the Fall, but I don’t think it will be school related.

 

[dvcgirl67]

I agree that kids won’t yet be vaccinated, but my son has been in school full-time since September and there’s been zero in school transmission. There have been isolated cases throughout the school year, but between the in school precautions and contact tracing/quarantine, in person learning has been uninterrupted. There may be a spike in the Fall, but I don’t think it will be school related.

I'm not so sure about that. And I also don't know if transmission is just in the 16-18 group....that will be eligible for the vaccine.....but in my area of NJ, the three high schools went all virtual last week due to rising cases. My friend one town over with an senior who attends in person learning said that there's been at least one case a day popping up on the school's Facebook page. So...it may not be happening where you are, but this is definitely happening in my neck of the woods.

I'm also not sure if we're seeing the variant that is now becoming very prevalent in NYC which is supposed to be more contagious. I guess time will tell.

 

[Princess Merida]

I agree that kids won’t yet be vaccinated, but my son has been in school full-time since September and there’s been zero in school transmission. There have been isolated cases throughout the school year, but between the in school precautions and contact tracing/quarantine, in person learning has been uninterrupted. There may be a spike in the Fall, but I don’t think it will be school related.

The same is true for my daughters school. She has been in person 5 days a week since September as well and they have not had to shut down at all. Cases aren’t transmitting at school much. The kids I know who have caught it got it from a family member. I don’t know that Disney Cruise Line will ever require children to be vaccinated. I know covid is very bad for the elderly, but the flu kills more children than covid and the kids or anyone else for that matter don’t have to have a flu vaccine before they cruise. I’m just unsure of how Disney who caters to children and the children in all of us adults can require kids to get a new, still in testing covid vaccine, but not require everyone to get the flu vaccine. It doesn’t make any sense to me.

 

[Clojel]

The same is true for my daughters school. She has been in person 5 days a week since September as well and they have not had to shut down at all. Cases aren’t transmitting at school much. The kids I know who have caught it got it from a family member. I don’t know that Disney Cruise Line will ever require children to be vaccinated. I know covid is very bad for the elderly, but the flu kills more children than covid and the kids or anyone else for that matter don’t have to have a flu vaccine before they cruise. I’m just unsure of how Disney who caters to children and the children in all of us adults can require kids to get a new, still in testing covid vaccine, but not require everyone to get the flu vaccine. It doesn’t make any sense to me.

Pretty much agree with this. If enough of the adult population get the vaccine - and it’s as effective as they think it is - the covid numbers will drop below the pandemic threshold and it will be viewed more like the flu. I still think there’s a good chance DCL will require adults be vaccinated....but I anticipate a return to cruising still happening absent an under 12 vaccine.

 

[lizzyb]

I voted for Fall 2021 as well. We have a mid November cruise on the Dream that I think has a very good chance of sailing. However, there is a good chance we won't be on it, either due to high school schedule (stupid quadmester system ) or because Canada still has the stupid mandatory 14 day quarantine in place when we return.

We are scheduled to sail in September. Not sure if it will sail but I don't think we will be able to due to Canadian restrictions as well.

 

[WishUponAStarryNight]

I'm not so sure about that. And I also don't know if transmission is just in the 16-18 group....that will be eligible for the vaccine.....but in my area of NJ, the three high schools went all virtual last week due to rising cases. My friend one town over with an senior who attends in person learning said that there's been at least one case a day popping up on the school's Facebook page. So...it may not be happening where you are, but this is definitely happening in my neck of the woods.

I'm also not sure if we're seeing the variant that is now becoming very prevalent in NYC which is supposed to be more contagious. I guess time will tell.

I’m in CT and my son is in 4th grade. Admittedly, there have been more cases at the high school, mostly because the kids are gathering outside of school. At the elementary level, there’s been no in school spread. Many high school-aged kids will soon be eligible for the vaccine, so that will help.

 

[dvcgirl67]

I’m in CT and my son is in 4th grade. Admittedly, there have been more cases at the high school, mostly because the kids are gathering outside of school. At the elementary level, there’s been no in school spread. Many high school-aged kids will soon be eligible for the vaccine, so that will help.

I think so too....we're definitely getting there. Ultimately, I think we'll need to be more concerned with adults who pass on the vaccine. Let's all hope we get enough of us to achieve herd immunity.

 

[soniam]

I'm not so sure about that. And I also don't know if transmission is just in the 16-18 group....that will be eligible for the vaccine.....but in my area of NJ, the three high schools went all virtual last week due to rising cases. My friend one town over with an senior who attends in person learning said that there's been at least one case a day popping up on the school's Facebook page. So...it may not be happening where you are, but this is definitely happening in my neck of the woods.

I'm also not sure if we're seeing the variant that is now becoming very prevalent in NYC which is supposed to be more contagious. I guess time will tell.

I think the high schools in general are worse. Every week that my son's school has in-person classes, there is at least one, if not multiple cases, that spread to others in the school. The cases are all from kids but have spread to other kids, staff, and teachers. This is with a small percentage, maybe 30%, in in-person attendance. Many students are still doing remote at the high school and middle school levels in our district. They send an email when positive cases occur and show the cases and exposed numbers daily on the web. Our son's school has had to go to completely remote a couple of times due to large numbers of cases. The other high schools in our district haven't been as bad, but they are definitely not good. I think it will only get worse once the more contagious variants approach 50% of cases, which should be happening within weeks here in the US.

 

[dvcgirl67]

I think the high schools in general are worse. Every week that my son's school has in-person classes, there is at least one, if not multiple cases, that spread to others in the school. The cases are all from kids but have spread to other kids, staff, and teachers. This is with a small percentage, maybe 30%, in in-person attendance. Many students are still doing remote at the high school and middle school levels in our district. They send an email when positive cases occur and show the cases and exposed numbers daily on the web. Our son's school has had to go to completely remote a couple of times due to large numbers of cases. The other high schools in our district haven't been as bad, but they are definitely not good. I think it will only get worse once the more contagious variants approach 50% of cases, which should be happening within weeks here in the US.

I'm really, *really* hoping that our rate of vaccinations can beat out these variants. Overall, our national numbers continue to go down, but the rate has slowed, and in my state, we've definitely plateaued. There's some real concern over the NYC variant. Here, in my part of NJ, there's now four High Schools that are all remote. No sports or after school activities either. I so feel for these kids.

 

[soniam]

I'm really, *really* hoping that our rate of vaccinations can beat out these variants. Overall, our national numbers continue to go down, but the rate has slowed, and in my state, we've definitely plateaued. There's some real concern over the NYC variant. Here, in my part of NJ, there's now four High Schools that are all remote. No sports or after school activities either. I so feel for these kids.

I am hoping too. I read about an even newer variant in Houston now. They have all 3 of the major foreign variants showing up in Houston, and they tested and found a single case, luckily, of a unique one. I assume new ones are coming and going all the time, with many just not winning out and spreading much. They really need to get on the ball here in Texas for the sake of the state and the rest of the country too.

 

[kathi]

I wondered if the "limited" could mean "only with vaccinated passengers". It would make sense to start out with that sub-set to work out any kinks and not risk having an outbreak.

 

[DisneYE]

I wondered if the "limited" could mean "only with vaccinated passengers". It would make sense to start out with that sub-set to work out any kinks and not risk having an outbreak.

DCL absolutely has to have sailings only with those who are vaccinated. - At least until the virus is mostly gone.
It would be reckless to sail with ppl who are not. Even if it means no <16 yo kids. Hopefully 12-15 year olds are ok'd to be vaccinated in the summer so that the ships can sail with more kids on them next year.

 

[Missingmypooh]

I voted for 2022. I think we're going to see case numbers continue to drop and get pretty low this summer, but I do think we'll see the virus return in the fall. Not like Fall of 2020, but I do think we're going to see numbers increase to a certain degree. Children won't be vaccinated and schools will largely open in the fall for in person learning. They're going to transmit the virus.

Right now people are clamoring to get the vaccine, but there will be too many Americans who won't get it. I think we may see DCL start in the fall of 2021 with limited cruises only to have to pull back again. I'm sure they'll require testing to board, but that won't guarantee that infected people don't get on board. Maybe they'll require vaccines on "test cruises"? But can they do that for everyone when they open it up to all customers. I mean...I'm sure they can, they're a private company, but I can see law suits upon law suits over that . We all know that there will be people who claim they can't get the vaccine (whether that's true or not).....the same way that we saw idiots with printed sheets of paper claiming they were exempt from wearing a mask. And right now what proof do you have that you even received a vaccine? There are already stories of fake CDC vaccine cards out there.

this is exactly the point.

we don’t know what’s gonna happen this fall. Yes, we’re all being optimistic.

there’s a chance that we have a new prominent variant in the fall. now we have world renowned scientists discussing (nobody panic) the possibility of a vaccine resistant strain because this prophylactic vaccine was used during the middle of the pandemic instead of before or after the virus strain was no longer virulent (science that is far above me, the point is that they are monitoring the **possibility** and science demands that we theorize all options, not just the happy ones we like to hear).

the vaccines are great weapons, but are they the right weapon to win the war? That’s what we’re all waiting on! 2020 was a wild ride, if we’ve learned one thing, it’s that the next 18 -36 months could bring anything to the table!

what about cruises opening up for 8 months, before having to close down again?

or a really really bad flu season (yes a flu pandemic) where they didn’t get the right vaccine strain in time because it all but disappeared this year and their estimates are off? Would cruises close for a flu pandemic (I’d think yes!).

how many cruise lines could survive 5 years of intermittent closures?

fwiw I want cruises opened up this summer, but I’m also trying to have realistic expectations that this decade could be really crazy