Poll - How long for BLT to sell out?

[KAT4DISNEY]

Since it's come up on several threads, and I don't remember seeing a poll, I thought it might be interesting to see how long DISer's think it will actually take for BLT to sell out. I know I have my opinion and thought it would be fun to see what other's think!

 

[tomandrobin]

Definitely more then two years.

1) There a lot of points to be sold.

2) The economy will weigh on sales.

3) Competition of sales with SSR-THV, AKV and in 2009 CGV.

4) Cheap, cheap resales.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Interesting so far. I think everyone was excited with initial sales but there were a lot of people who were just waiting to buy in and did immediately.

Gotta agree with tomandrobin on the points they listed!

 

[Mouse511]

This is a great poll - lets keep this to the top and see what really happens !!

 

[Budshark]

For reference.. this is the best info we've gotten so far.

Our guide told us they were backlogged with so many contracts and she had lots of "calls" to make the day it becomes available to the public. Better hurry - quick quick quick...

On Sunday we went to see the models (we had already added on - were just wanting to see the rooms), while there we were explicity told "If you are one of the next 300 members to add on with 160 or more points you'll be part of the founders club!"

So - while this may be faster than any other resort, or more activity than any other resort - I don't think 700 160+ point contracts in 1 week (including the cruise) is going to get the resort sold out in 6 months like some of the guides want you to believe.

I voted >24 months.

Chris

 

[keishashadow]

Coming from a real estate sales background, anytime a salesperson tells me "hurry, hurry", it raises the caution flag...im thinking it could take over 24 months now, wouldn't have imagined it a few months ago.

We (and im willing to bet a large portion of the country) are starting to hunker down (just a bit) financially, adding-on just doesn't seem prudent for us right now, need to ride the wave & see how things play out in the general economy .

That said, when things rebound, we're there ; if the incentives go over-the-top...sooner vs later.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Thought I'd give this one more bump up.....

 

[Disney Spaz]

I voted for >24 months as well. We were going to buy in right away but no points until 2009 and no developer points plus $107 a point stopped us. We are going in Jan and if the incentives improve then we will talk about it again.

 

[Tink-n-Belle]

I voted for >24 months as well. We were going to buy in right away but no points until 2009 and no developer points plus $107 a point stopped us. We are going in Jan and if the incentives improve then we will talk about it again.

Ditto for us too. I have been waiting for a monorail DVC forever, but the Stock market is killing me!!!!!!!!!!! 2 weeks ago I was buying in, but what a difference 2 weeks makes Without good incentives (1/2 of what they gave on the cruise would be nice to existing members) I'm waiting too. I voted 2 years.

700 hundred contracts over 160 points isn't alot considering its BLT.

 

[Melrosgirl]

What's the asking price per point for BLT?

If over $90 (and I'm sure it's over $100??), well over 2 years for sell out. Personally, I think DVC is building too much, too fast considering the economy.

 

[WendyinNC]

Does anyone think they will tear down the South Wing and build another similar DVC structure? If so, would it be a separate DVC to sell or just more BLT points? If BLT sales are good I don't see why they wouldn't proceed with another structure.

 

[DisFlan]

A year ago, I'd have said BLT would sell quickly. With current economic conditions and BLT's point structure, I think it'll be two years plus.

Does anyone think they will tear down the South Wing and build another similar DVC structure? If so, would it be a separate DVC to sell or just more BLT points? If BLT sales are good I don't see why they wouldn't proceed with another structure.

I doubt they'll put another DVC structure at the CR - at least not any time soon. With the current state of the economy and BLT, GVC, Treehouses and Hawaii all in the pipeline and AKL still for sale, I have a feeling DVC will be pulling back a bit on announcing more DVC construction. DVC has been a cash cow for Disney, but for now, it may be reaching its limit. But who knows? DVC has surprised us before.

DisFlan

 

[Budshark]

Does anyone think they will tear down the South Wing and build another similar DVC structure? If so, would it be a separate DVC to sell or just more BLT points? If BLT sales are good I don't see why they wouldn't proceed with another structure.

While everything is speculation, in a conversation with my guide about future possibilities (Grand Floridian/Poly) - she explicity stated the South Wing of Contemporary as being "before" anything else.

I think the long term view of the property would lend to the idea of two curved towers around the A-frame hotel.

While today, everyone is down on the economy, 2 years ago they were all gung-ho. Recent history is that DVC will continue to sell. When the dollar is strong and the US economy is good - Americans buy. When the dollar is weak, International visitors buy. I'd be more concerned about Hawaii and GCV than Contemporary not selling. Luckily GCV is VERY small.

But the Magic 8 ball says "Yes, the South Wing will be torn down and a 2nd curved tower built BEFORE the GF and/or Poly have DVC rooms built"

 

[jlewisinsyr]

Definately greater than 2 years.

 

[WendyinNC]

While everything is speculation, in a conversation with my guide about future possibilities (Grand Floridian/Poly) - she explicity stated the South Wing of Contemporary as being "before" anything else.

I think the long term view of the property would lend to the idea of two curved towers around the A-frame hotel.

While today, everyone is down on the economy, 2 years ago they were all gung-ho. Recent history is that DVC will continue to sell. When the dollar is strong and the US economy is good - Americans buy. When the dollar is weak, International visitors buy. I'd be more concerned about Hawaii and GCV than Contemporary not selling. Luckily GCV is VERY small.

But the Magic 8 ball says "Yes, the South Wing will be torn down and a 2nd curved tower built BEFORE the GF and/or Poly have DVC rooms built"

If the south wing was built there might be a lot of availabilty and thus, it may not be particularly important to buy points there (thinking long term). Of course, I will probably break down and buy some points since I want to enjoy it while at least some of my kids are young. I guess my point is that I don't think it well sell out fast because before it sells out I think they will build a second tower.

 

[spiceycat]

Definitely more then two years.

4) Cheap, cheap resales.

no offense - but really believe this one is in your dreams.

Disney won't let anyone stay on property for cheap. they will buy it buy first and rent it themselves.

say more than 18 months.

bcv sold out in 18 months (I think) - this is a much better location - especially to be seem by the general public.

you won't be able to miss it.....

 

[tomandrobin]

no offense - but really believe this one is in your dreams.

Disney won't let anyone stay on property for cheap. they will buy it buy first and rent it themselves.

say more than 18 months.

bcv sold out in 18 months (I think) - this is a much better location - especially to be seem by the general public.

you won't be able to miss it.....

Pat

I will agree that the location is top notch!

But resales prices are falling lower and lower, making new purchases harder to justify.

Also, BCV had 3,000,000 points to sell, BLT wil have 6,000,000 points to sell. If it took 18 months to sell BCV, why would it take 18 months to sell BLT? That is 37,500 160 point contracts, 480 BLT contracts a week, or 68.5 contracts every day.

AKV and THV will cut into those sales. Within 6-8 months GCV are going to cut into BLT sales too.

PS - I am not bashing the resort. In fact, I am already planning on staying there next fall.