please help with clarification of declared versus sold

[momtofour]

Wdrl posted that 75.8% of the VGF points have been declared. 42.8%of the points have been sold. Please excuse my naivety but as more points are sold, less availability? I am thinking of purchasing points there. Random checks at precisely seven months indicate that there is a high probability of snagging a one bedroom unit. As the resort sells out will there be much less of a chance? I am trying to determine if I should purchase more BLT points in the hopes of using them at VGF at seven months for the one bedroom unit. Thoughts? Thanks.

 

[drusba]

Declared is the percentage that can be sold to and used by DVC members. With prior resorts, the declared portion typically stayed just ahead of the sold portion. With VGF, they used a different tact and immediately declared that 75.8% into DVC when sales first started. it is thus possible and even probable that as the resort gets closer to selling out, you will see reservations, particularly at the 7 month window and particularly for studios, and possibly 1BRs even though demand is lower for those, become harder and harder to get, because there are such a low number of studios and 1BRs and all are part of lock-offs which can also be reserved as 2BRs. My guess is that you will probably be able to get a 1BR much of the time at 7 months out between mid Jan to end of Sep, DVC's low demand season, but may have problems in the future if you want one from end of Sep to marathon weekend in Jan, DVc's high demand season.

 

[disneynutz]

IMO DVD knew that VGF would be a fast seller so they declared a higher than normal number since the resort is so small.

Also IMO since there are so few rooms, it will be difficult to book there unless you own there. It is Disney's flagship resort and it will be very popular.

Bill

 

[Dean]

Wdrl posted that 75.8% of the VGF points have been declared. 42.8%of the points have been sold. Please excuse my naivety but as more points are sold, less availability? I am thinking of purchasing points there. Random checks at precisely seven months indicate that there is a high probability of snagging a one bedroom unit. As the resort sells out will there be much less of a chance? I am trying to determine if I should purchase more BLT points in the hopes of using them at VGF at seven months for the one bedroom unit. Thoughts? Thanks.

There are other factors. Even though it's more declared than sold, there are probably more points in play now than there will be in a given year going forward comparatively speaking. This is because those buying will get a full years points with only a portion of the UY remaining. The other issue is that every single buyer wants to stay there and will for at least a couple of trips. Also remove the fixed weeks from the mix for the most part. In addition many of those who don't own there are also trying to get in a 7 months out to the minute once the window opens. All of those variables lead me to believe that the current comparative demand is actually more now than it will be in 3-4 years. Basically once new owners have gotten a couple of trips under their belt and other DVC members trying to exchange in have had a chance and either success or no success. It'll still likely be more difficult than most options but there will be successes. 1 BR are are likely to be the most available and actually will cost many who trade in from other DVC resorts around the same overall as a studio costs someone who owns there. I doubt it'll be available enough to justify buying elsewhere to stay routinely at VGF but those who want a trip every few years and who plan should be able to be successful if they're flexible.

 

[crisi]

Plus, once the Poly opens, the focus of the "newest coolest flagship" resort will move to the Poly. For a few years, VGF will become the second choice to try and get into as people try for the Poly. And the Poly is beloved in a way frankly no other resort at Disney is.

But you should buy at the VGF if you would be disappointed NOT to get a room there and can book more than seven months out - and the cost isn't burdensome. Otherwise, you'll need to be flexible.

 

[bobbiwoz]

At 11 months out, a December stay in a studio was not easy to book for this year!