Personal Experiences at 7 Month Window

[ricapito]

Quote: "poll is flawed, so no point in arguing its findings"

Think of the possibilities in a poll like this? First choice? Extremely hard requests? Only didn't get requests at 7 months once out of 20 times? Was the request at 7 months to the day? Where does it end? Flawed, nope, sorry, I disagree, is it all-encompasing-no. This is anecdotal evidence, and still pretty good evidence in fact. Scientific, nope, but a true comprehensive study is beyond the possibilities of a DISboard poll. I thnk this is apretty good barometer of what's important to most people actually, people who can live within the bounds of a bit of flexibility. A few of you inflexible outliers are crucifying this thing....that's my take on it. Preferences and live or die are very different, and some of you make it sound like the end of the world will come if you can't get exactly what you want....while most of us at 7 months have preferences and an alternatve or two and if 80% of time we get our preference we can live with the 20% we get an alternative.

 

[sjdisneywedding]

Quote: "poll is flawed, so no point in arguing its findings"

Think of the possibilities in a poll like this? First choice? Extremely hard requests? Only didn't get requests at 7 months once out of 20 times? Was the request at 7 months to the day? Where does it end? Flawed, nope, sorry, I disagree, is it all-encompasing-no. This is anecdotal evidence, and still pretty good evidence in fact. Scientific, nope, but a true comprehensive study is beyond the possibilities of a DISboard poll. I thnk this is apretty good barometer of what's important to most people actually, people who can live within the bounds of a bit of flexibility. A few of you inflexible outliers are crucifying this thing....that's my take on it. Preferences and live or die are very different, and some of you make it sound like the end of the world will come if you can't get exactly what you want....while most of us at 7 months have preferences and an alternatve or two and if 80% of time we get our preference we can live with the 20% we get an alternative.

I understand all your statements I truly do but are you viewing this poll independantly of the "buy where youwant to stay thread' yu started early? I thought originally that was the whole purpose of this poll. So yes you are correct the 20% wmight not be an issue at all for those of us wanting to stay at a variety of resorts(myself included) But my whole point, from the begining, stems from the buy where you want to stay arguement. Again for those members who buy in to dvc looking to stay at a certain resort then buying where you want to stay is still very much the most important factor.

Also theres no way to tell if the 20% percent is accurate as far as occurances go. Im dont mean to say your poll is worthless, just not really accurate. You said it yourself, theres alot of variables to take in ot account

 

[sjdisneywedding]

I never said that it would have "zero effect on booking at other resorts." What I am saying is that it will have VERY LIMITED impact, if any, for those who plan to book right at 7 months.

Only a resort's owners have access to that resort until the 7-month window arrives. Whether there are 80,000 members or 800,000, the number of people who can book BCV at 7 months + 1 day will ALWAYS be the same.

The impact of increasing DVC membership will be felt moreso as we get closer to the check-in date. Will availability at 6 months now be the same as it was at 6 months in 2002? Of course not!!! But we're not talking about 6 month bookings, we're talking about 7 month bookings.

If I want to stay at BCV, I'll mark my calendar to call at exactly 7 months and don't anticipate any problems. If I can't get the room, that tells me that a lot of people are trying to plan their trips more than 7 months out, which will inevitably lead to a high percentage of cancellations. Other people may simply be booking a room at their Home resort with the intention of switching to another a 7 months. This again will lead to many cancellations. Either way, I'll absolutely go on the waitlist and have little concern that I will get the room before my trip begins.

sorry still disagree with you. you are correct is stating that if you call directly at at 7 months you probably wont have a problem. But there are tens of thousands of members who are not members of this boards who are not as well informed as we are here. they might not call day by day, exactly at 7 months. in addition for those who are well informed, and will call at directly 7 months then you are going to have that many more members you have to battle each day.

sorry I cant see any agrument which disputes the notion it will get worse as more members are added. like i said a million times maybe not much worse but its almost mathematically impossible for it not to.

 

[OneMoreTry]

All's fair in love and war on the DISboards

I'm not commenting on the particular situation here but,

I hope you don't really mean this.

 

[sjdisneywedding]

I'm not commenting on the particular situation here but,

I hope you don't really mean this.

hes just kidding, we were only having some fun with each other

 

[OneMoreTry]

My belief is that if a resort develops a bad reputation, especially one of the bigger resorts, then the 7 month window will be more critical at all the other resorts. If demand remains balanced then obviously there won't be a problem.

I'm deciding whether to try for VWL at Xmas. It's the only one (not counting SSR) we haven't stayed at yet. On the other hand I would like the breathing room at OKW because we're gonna have people over for some day visits from the Orlando area, and we will probably not do a lot of parks -- if any. I would just like to try it out to say we did (and it is a pretty lodge and DISers say it's xtra beautiful at Xmas).

If I try for it I won't do a day-by-day. We're booked at OKW now and that would be too complicated.

 

[ricapito]

hes just kidding, we were only having some fun with each other

waht she said

 

[tjkraz]

But there are tens of thousands of members who are not members of this boards who are not as well informed as we are here. they might not call day by day, exactly at 7 months.

Then they won't impact anyone's ability to get reservations. No relevance to the discussion.

in addition for those who are well informed, and will call at directly 7 months then you are going to have that many more members you have to battle each day.

Once again, the addition of more and more members to DVC "will have VERY LIMITED impact, if any, for those who plan to book right at 7 months."

sorry I cant see any agrument which disputes the notion it will get worse as more members are added. like i said a million times maybe not much worse but its almost mathematically impossible for it not to.

...and I've said all along that any impact will be limited..."limited" and "not much worse" seem to be synonymous, so I guess you agree with me.

I'll be the first one to eat crow if the situation changes. But in my experiences I've been told that there was "pleanty" of availability when booking Standard View BWV at 7 months and have had no problem booking BCV or BWV on much less than 7 months. And there are an awful lot of people in this thread saying that they have never had a problem at 7 months.

Obviously that won't hold true for all seasons / resorts / room types. But that's been the case in the past and what happens moving forward is simply a continuation of past trends.

As is often the case, those who best understand the system and know how to use it to their advantage will find themselves in the most favorable position. As such, I don't anticipate any problems. Others' mileage may vary.

 

[sjdisneywedding]

Then they won't impact anyone's ability to get reservations. No relevance to the discussion.

you misunderstood the point here, but so be it

But in my experiences I've been told that there was "pleanty" of availability when booking Standard View BWV at 7 months and have had no problem booking BCV or BWV on much less than 7 months. And there are an awful lot of people in this thread saying that they have never had a problem at 7 months.

yep and theres still some that havent had any luck.

 

[Granny]

Of course, Disney is not contractually obligated to allow us to book at non-home resorts, so conceivably they could restrict us somewhere down the line to our home resorts.

Impossible you say? Well, if they stop selling new DVC contracts, they might just figure that the headache of allowing cross-reserving to other resorts might not be worth it. I'm hoping that this never happens, but I feel much better knowing that if I am restricted to my current home resorts for the next 37 years, I'll be just fine with that.