Over 3,500 people quarantined on Diamond Princess cruise

[StarGirl11]

update with the Abels. To add to the mess of the 24 hrs it turns out the person he talked to didn’t speak English so apparently (or very minimally at least) when he asked about being moved to the hostel and then tried to confirm they didn’t have coronavirus the official said yes to the wrong thing.

I’m really questioning the decision to move them to a hostel of all places especially with the news now coming out that the quarantine may not have been a true quarantine.

On the topic of the American I mentioned elsewhere but something about using text speak with a serious subject matter comes off as kind of well bratty in my opinion. And this isn’t just a problem with him. I remember when a half marathon got cancelled someone posted about it in a FB group and same problem again. Use of acronyms made the OP come off as a brat even if that wasn’t their intention. And I wasn’t the only one either. I get Twitter has a character limit but there’s also a plus button to continue the tweet in another tweet.

Just don’t use text speak when talking about a serious subject matter is what I’m getting at here. You might not mean to come off as bratty but something about text speak tends to put a certain tone in people’s brains.

 

[otten]

I have a scenario that I am going to post because there seem to be some people here who are quite knowledgeable about infectious disease. My Dad is in southern Vietnam right now and flies home in a few days through Japan. I have been checking numbers coming out of Vietnam, and there seems to be very little near Ho Chi Minh. Flying through the airport in Japan in a couple of days is where my ever so slight concern comes in. He usually stops by our house on his way home from the airport. My DD is also getting baptized this Sunday and we were planning on him being there. I know that I am being way overly cautious to consider not seeing him in the next few days, but we leave on March 5 for the WBPC cruise. I just do not want to take ANY chance of creating another cruise ship situation. What do you think?

I think it's clear from my posts in here and in our cruise group that I am far from covid-19 paranoid. However, all it would take to derail your cruise is for someone on his flight to test positive. I am not at all worried about the virus itself but as we have seen with the Diamond Princess and other situations, the decisions being taken have not all been the right ones.

 

[Adventurelawyer]

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[smmco]

I think it's clear from my posts in here and in our cruise group that I am far from covid-19 paranoid. However, all it would take to derail your cruise is for someone on his flight to test positive. I am not at all worried about the virus itself but as we have seen with the Diamond Princess and other situations, the decisions being taken have not all been the right ones.

How do we know the virus isn’t already wide spread? We’re not testing for it in the US unless the person came from China. Most people have mild or no symptoms and most people don’t go to the Dr when they have a cold or flu like symptoms. It seems like an impossible thing to contain and all this quarantine drama is such a waste of time.

 

[StarGirl11]

Also a Japanese fireman who was transporting passengers tested positive now. This feels like there’s been a breakdown on multiple levels of handling the cruise. We might learn some things from this but it might not going to be all of what we wanted...

 

[MarkLT1]

How do we know the virus isn’t already wide spread? We’re not testing for it in the US unless the person came from China. Most people have mild or no symptoms and most people don’t go to the Dr when they have a cold or flu like symptoms. It seems like an impossible thing to contain and all this quarantine drama is such a waste of time.

1. Even though it is a small number of people who have severe symptoms, in a large population, there will be some exhibiting those bad-place symptoms, and if a person in the US entered a hospital exhibiting those bad symptoms, you can be assured they would likely be tested. The severe symptoms of this bug include fun things like organ failure, and happen on a timescale very different from things like the flu. In other words, a person would become suspicious and be tested.
2. Quarantines are known not to stop the spread of a virus. If this is going to spread, it is going to spread. HOWEVER, as has been mentioned in this thread, and in many other places it slows the spread down which does 2 very effective things in terms of mitigation- first it allows a country's healthcare system to get prepared (in terms of even figuring out how to tread bad cases) and second, it slows the onslaught. One of the biggest issues China is facing right now is too many severely ill people, and not enough things like ventilators. By slowing the spread, it helps to keep this onslaught from happening, and allows more people to be treated.

While the quarantine wont stop the spread of the virus, it will help to mitigate the negative outcomes.

 

[otten]

How do we know the virus isn’t already wide spread? We’re not testing for it in the US unless the person came from China. Most people have mild or no symptoms and most people don’t go to the Dr when they have a cold or flu like symptoms. It seems like an impossible thing to contain and all this quarantine drama is such a waste of time.

Oh I agree. I think the quarantines and travel bans are almost certainly ineffective and ridiculous. They are however happening and I for one would not want to not be able to go on a trip I've planned for more than a year because of those ridiculous measures.

 

[Gentry2004]

Regarding the American and his wife who stayed on the ship - the US Govt already told him the earliest he can fly back to the US is March 4, and that can change later. So it’s not like when Japan releases the ship he can just hop a flight home.

 

[otten]

Also a Japanese fireman who was transporting passengers tested positive now. This feels like there’s been a breakdown on multiple levels of handling the cruise. We might learn some things from this but it might not going to be all of what we wanted...

I think the big lessons of this particular cluster may be that politicians making quarantine decisions by the seat of their pants is ineffective at best and at worse, can exacerbate the situation.

 

[Gentry2004]

I think the big lessons of this particular cluster may be that politicians making quarantine decisions by the seat of their pants is ineffective at best and at worse, can exacerbate the situation.

Japan is looking grossly incompetent at this point. I think everyone wrongly assumed they knew what they were doing, myself included.

 

[Chrissy-Mickey]

I have a scenario that I am going to post because there seem to be some people here who are quite knowledgeable about infectious disease. My Dad is in southern Vietnam right now and flies home in a few days through Japan. I have been checking numbers coming out of Vietnam, and there seems to be very little near Ho Chi Minh. Flying through the airport in Japan in a couple of days is where my ever so slight concern comes in. He usually stops by our house on his way home from the airport. My DD is also getting baptized this Sunday and we were planning on him being there. I know that I am being way overly cautious to consider not seeing him in the next few days, but we leave on March 5 for the WBPC cruise. I just do not want to take ANY chance of creating another cruise ship situation. What do you think?

That's a really tough call. It's your dad, you want him to be there for the baptism. Sounds like it's been a while since you've seen him, you probably can't wait to see him yourself. Yet, he's on a plane that stops in Japan...

1. We've got something similar coming up but then for ourselves. We've got a trip planned to Bali, with a layover in Singapore, which like Japan has the numbers rising. We're not going until early June, but we are keeping a close eye on it, and if things don't improve over the next 6-8 weeks, we will cancel our plans because we don't want to risk it.

2. We will be on the WBPC cruise with you and I thank you for considering what's best in this scenario.14 days for a Panama Canal trip is very different than 14 days stuck in quarantine... even if it's on the best ship ever. Now, are you "being way overly cautious to consider not seeing him in the next few days"? I don't think anyone here can tell you what to do, all that every one of us can do is follow our instincts.

 

[Starwind]

Now I'm really worried about them, after watching that video. Maybe a good deed really doesn't go unpunished.

From what it looked like in the videos they have put out, they prepare the food offsite/outside the ship and then it is delivered to the ship but the World's Kitchen people do not actually go ONTO the ship. One brief part of a clip showed the meals on a pallet being forklifted onto the ship; the forklift operator appeared to be wearing PPE including a white "hazmat" suit.

 

[otten]

Japan is looking grossly incompetent at this point. I think everyone wrongly assumed they knew what they were doing, myself included.

Since most of the decisions being made around travel bans and quarantines are actually against the advice of the actual world experts on epidemics I would venture to say that it's not just Japan that is incompetent. I think we will find that other countries' decision makers prove to be as well.

 

[QueenElinor]

Just don’t use text speak when talking about a serious subject matter is what I’m getting at here. You might not mean to come off as bratty but something about text speak tends to put a certain tone in people’s brains.

Absolutely. I often don't even use contractions when I'm speaking about serious things. Almost never professionally, not even in emails. I even hesitate with exclamation marks but I find younger people need those sometimes.

Oh I agree. I think the quarantines and travel bans are almost certainly ineffective and ridiculous. They are however happening and I for one would not want to not be able to go on a trip I've planned for more than a year because of those ridiculous measures.

I think travel bans are what are going to make a big difference in the US. Let's compare how things go in the US vs. Europe in a couple of months, since they don't have any. That will settle the issue.

Since most of the decisions being made around travel bans and quarantines are actually against the advice of the actual world experts on epidemics I would venture to say that it's not just Japan that is incompetent. I think we will find that other countries' decision makers prove to be as well.

Yes, they're world experts. They're concerned about the world. There's nothing wrong with that, just so long as you realize they're NOT concerned about the welfare of each individual country, and certainly not about each individual person. That's where national, local and personal initiative comes into play.

We here in the US are advised by the CDC, and they're the best there is. I trust them to watch out for the nation, but our local public health departments also know the nuances of each area. And I know the particularities of my household. We each have responsibilities, from big to small.

 

[otten]

Absolutely. I often don't even use contractions when I'm speaking about serious things. Almost never professionally, not even in emails. I even hesitate with exclamation marks but I find younger people need those sometimes.


I think travel bans are what are going to make a big difference in the US. Let's compare how things go in the US vs. Europe in a couple of months, since they don't have any. That will settle the issue.


Yes, they're world experts. They're concerned about the world. There's nothing wrong with that, just so long as you realize they're NOT concerned about the welfare of each individual country, and certainly not about each individual person. That's where national, local and personal initiative comes into play.

We here in the US are advised by the CDC, and they're the best there is. I trust them to watch out for the nation, but our local public health department also knows the nuances of the area. And I know the particularities of my household.

Like I said, only time with tell if it’s only Japan’s decisions that end up being questioned. Remember a lot of people thought they knew what they were doing too.

 

[Lisa F]

Regarding the American and his wife who stayed on the ship - the US Govt already told him the earliest he can fly back to the US is March 4, and that can change later. So it’s not like when Japan releases the ship he can just hop a flight home.

BUT he can probably fly to anywhere else that isn't enforcing any kind of travel ban but is much lower risk for contracting the virus and wait it out there in a nice hotel with freedom rather than in quarantine. I get the feeling this guy doesn't need to go back to work

 

[QueenElinor]

Like I said, only time with tell if it’s only Japan’s decisions that end up being questioned. Remember a lot of people thought they knew what they were doing too.

Yes, they sure did. We'll see how it all plays out. I don't know anything about Japan, I didn't;t know that they had no central public health authority. But the US does, and they're pretty good. I've interacted quite often with local public health, so I do have a lot of confidence in them, at least.

 

[Starwind]

1. Even though it is a small number of people who have severe symptoms, in a large population, there will be some exhibiting those bad-place symptoms, and if a person in the US entered a hospital exhibiting those bad symptoms, you can be assured they would likely be tested. The severe symptoms of this bug include fun things like organ failure, and happen on a timescale very different from things like the flu. In other words, a person would become suspicious and be tested.

This. Using the numbers from the last time I checked, of the 545 positives on the ship, 20 of the patients are in critical condition. Now, the population of the ship is highly skewed to older people which are at higher risk of death from the virus, so that affects the numbers. But if you scale it to a population, the really sick people starts flagging up.

Recall that in the early days of the outbreak in Wuhan, that opthamologist who sounded the alarm and ultimately died of it, saw some small number, like 6 ?, cases of weird SARS-like pneumonia that was a red flag for him that something was wrong and he gave the warning to colleagues.

So it doesn't take much for someone paying attention if there is a cluster in one area, they may well recognize the unicorn amongst the horses and zebras.

And now with the whole world watching for indicators of outbreaks elsewhere, anything looking even a little off is going to be investigated to make sure it isn't, at least in places that have the medical infrastructure to be capable of doing so. The places that *don't* are going to be a serious concern if they aren't already a problem [and just don't know it].

 

[StarGirl11]

What really bites is knowing that if they had used the PPE like they were supposed to we would probably have a very different story right now. PPE has been used effectively in hospitals and there is no reason to think if they had used it when interacting with passengers they could have contained this and possibly it wouldn’t have gotten out beyond the initial contact with the Hong Kong gentleman.

I get the stuffs annoying. I remember having to dawn it when my late aunt was in isolation. And they probably go through it quick in these kind of cases. But it works for a reason. And that break of protocol alone really gets under my nerves. And I don’t even work in the medical field

 

[QueenElinor]

This. Using the numbers from the last time I checked, of the 545 positives on the ship, 20 of the patients are in critical condition. Now, the population of the ship is highly skewed to older people which are at higher risk of death from the virus, so that affects the numbers. But if you scale it to a population, the really sick people starts flagging up.

Thanks for providing those stats.

I think they started testing based on age and symptoms, so to hear that only 20% are in critical care is actually good news. I believe in China it was about 15% of the entire hospitalized population, which would include young people, too. Of course, others may soon follow but initially those figures aren't too bad.

And now with the whole world watching for indicators of outbreaks elsewhere, anything looking even a little off is going to be investigated to make sure it isn't, at least in places that have the medical infrastructure to be capable of doing so. The places that *don't* are going to be a serious concern if they aren't already a problem [and just don't know it].

There are a lot of places like that in the world. North Korea says they have no cases at all, but they have close ties to China, how could they not?. Africa has very few cases, but they have limited testing ability. Much will be open to interpretation as the weeks go by.