Orlando area hurricane this weekend?

[Shire Feingold]

We fly in on Sunday from CT. Looking into potentially coming in a day or two earlier. Worried about our flight being cancelled

 

[Spridell]

Just for an FYI, the latest Euro model (considered the best in the world) has a Tropical Storm very very close to Orlando at 1pm Sunday.

Keep updated with the NHC.

 

[MGMmjl]

It looks like most weather models are showing at least some impact to the Orlando area is likely from Dorian. How strong Dorian is at the potential landfall in Florida remains to be seen. The most important thing is to keep up with updates from the NHC and NWS.

Here is the latest NHC forecast track for Dorian:

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The official NHC forecast has it making landfall as a strong tropical storm (70 mph) around 8 am Sunday morning.

This is the current NWS forecast for the WDW area:

Saturday Night​

Tropical storm conditions possible. A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76.​

Sunday​

Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Windy, with a north wind 15 to 25 mph increasing to 30 to 40 mph. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.​

Sunday Night​

A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Windy, with a south southwest wind 20 to 30 mph decreasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.​

Official NHC information: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

NWS forecast for WDW area: https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-81.55081329052336&lat=28.37236185004585#.XWV8pvZFzcs

 

[Spridell]

At the very least there will be clouds and rain showers more widespread for Saturday and Sunday.

 

[Geoff_M]

Here's tonight's analysis from the same weather-geek

Today the center of the storm jumped north. This means that the center is not going to hit The Dominican Republic, but should pass right over Puerto Rico. That might disrupt it some (but not as much as it would have over the DR), but it once it passes there, it'll likely be in a better part of the ocean to possibly strengthen. He didn't use the "H-word", but said that the winds can be expected to pick up from the current 50 mph. Complicating the projections is another low pressure system that it may collide with from the north that might disrupt it. Behind the low pressure system is a high pressure system that will likely steer Dorian, but how strong it is at the time will impact where it spins it off to.

The bottom line: It's not likely to die anytime soon, likely will strengthen, and while most models show it crossing Florida, it's still pretty much a crap-shoot where it's going to end up.

 

[Spridell]

I will say this, model runs tonight have come in MUCH stronger. NOW THIS CAN AND WILL CHANGE, but some models do have a cat 3 coming across florida this weekend. NO PANIC YET but tonights runs of the some of the models are trending stronger.



Nows is the time to go over your hurricane plans if you live on the east coast of Florida.

 

[Shelly F - Ohio]

SWA has issued travel waivers for flight to and from MCO we changed our Sunday flights a few hours ago.

 

[Geoff_M]

They're now officially using "The H-Word":

 

[toasterstrudel]

My flight is scheduled to arrive at 12:30 am on Sunday morning (Sat night to me) I am really nervous now. I am only flying instead of driving down because I have to be at my grandmothers funeral at 2 pm on Saturday, so not an option to go earlier unless I miss the services.

I tend to have anxiety over vacations anyway (preparations etc) so this really throws me. My husband thinks we will be fine. I hope he is right! I am ok with rain and wind at Disney! I just want to make sure I get there!

 

[Shelly F - Ohio]

My flight is scheduled to arrive at 12:30 am on Sunday morning (Sat night to me) I am really nervous now. I am only flying instead of driving down because I have to be at my grandmothers funeral at 2 pm on Saturday, so not an option to go earlier unless I miss the services.

I tend to have anxiety over vacations anyway (preparations etc) so this really throws me. My husband thinks we will be fine. I hope he is right! I am ok with rain and wind at Disney! I just want to make sure I get there!

The storm is predicted to be a hurricane early Sunday morning and into Mon . So there is a high chance your flight might be canceled Airlines will be busy moving planes out of the path of the storm to prevent damage to the aircraft. Here is the latest map as of 5.a.m today

 

[MGMmjl]

It looks like a lot of the weather models have continued to increase the potential strength of Dorian as it moves closer to the US. The American GFS model has trended farther north, showing a landfall in the Carolinas instead of Florida. Most of the other models still show a landfall over Florida. The key will be when an upper-level trough picks up the storm and moves it more to the north. The GFS model shows that happening while the storm is still over the ocean, and the storm turns north before it hits the coast. Most of the other models show this happening after landfall. The official NHC forecast did trend a little northward on the latest forecast, so this will be something to watch over the next few days.

 

[gatechfan99]

It's just still highly uncertain for Orlando so hard to make plans right now. The trend in the last day seems to be stronger, but also landfall higher up the Florida coast. As stated above, GFS has a turn north that could miss all of Florida. However, Euro this AM had a strong hurricane pretty much with a direct hit on Orlando.

We don't leave to drive down until Friday so I'm gathering details but won't make any decisions until that AM. I guess my biggest concern is coming back on Monday and having a strong hurricane near I-75 and I-10 on our route back.

 

[Welsh_Dragon]

My daughter is booked with JetBlue to fly EWR to MCO on Tuesday. She had a flex ticket. Do you think it would be better for her to fly down tomorrow or Friday and wait it out in Orlando than risk long delays on Tuesday? Stay safe everyone.

 

[carseatguru]

We drive down tomorrow and stay until Monday. I have no plans to cancel my trip. I've never been in FL for hurricane conditions so should be interesting. My only concern is driving back to GA on Monday. I'm prepared to stay another night if necessary or at the very least a late check-out at ASM.

 

[Mom2Stitch]

I'm trying to decide if I should try and switch our MNSSHP on Monday to the following Sunday-if I can even get them to do that. MNSSHP in down pours are not fun-been there done that!

 

[MGMmjl]

Latest update on Dorian has it as a 70 mph tropical storm currently, so it is almost a hurricane. It is now forecast to reach category 3 intensity (major hurricane status, 115 mph) prior to landfall.

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[Spridell]

We drive down tomorrow and stay until Monday. I have no plans to cancel my trip. I've never been in FL for hurricane conditions so should be interesting. My only concern is driving back to GA on Monday. I'm prepared to stay another night if necessary or at the very least a late check-out at ASM.

Disney handles Hurricanes extremely well so no worries with that. Since this could be such a powerful storm there might be some more tension then normal.

I would also prepare to stay another day as the drive back to GA monday might be problematical.

 

[Starbrite]

We are scheduled to fly in Saturday at 8am, leaving Wednesday 09/04.

I'm following closely and can't keep up with the projected timeline. Hopefully we can still fly in.

 

[Alilaw]

Any thoughts on flights coming in on Tuesday? The latest updates have me more nervous.

 

[Bianca and Bernard]

We drive down tomorrow and stay until Monday. I have no plans to cancel my trip. I've never been in FL for hurricane conditions so should be interesting. My only concern is driving back to GA on Monday. I'm prepared to stay another night if necessary or at the very least a late check-out at ASM.

With the current model, I'd either go back to GA on Sunday early or I'd plan on staying until Tuesday (and possibly longer). The Weather Channel has it hitting Melbourne area Monday morning, but it could turn north and hit us around Jax that day.

The uncertainity is what kills me. I just want to know whether we evac or not (we are in Evac zone D in our area, but literally across the street there is no evac zone).