Opening day vs. OBB

[squirk]

I know this is a hard question to answer, but I’d appreciate any helpful insight.

I have my eye on a cruise next June (‘19), and have asked my TA to call in on (Gold) opening day to get prices. I expect this fare to be around $15k (three staterooms/reservations).

However, I am also thinking about taking a short Merrytime cruise this November, at which point I could OBB the summer cruise for 10%, reduced deposit and $600 OBC.

So, I could book the summer cruise on opening day next week, see how much the fare changes for it when I sail this fall. If the OBB price is better, I could cancel the opening day res and rebook OBB. If the opening day fare is still better, I’ll just keep that res.

However, I don’t want to plan for all that if opening day will clearly be a better deal than OBB in November, or vice versa. I also don’t want to give DCL an eight-month interest-free loan on $3,000 (my opening-day deposit) if I don’t have to.

The real question, I guess, is how much the summer fare will increase between next week and November. Will it increase so much that it negates the OBB’s 10% discount + $600 OBC?

I know Touring Plans has a fare tracker that I can use, but I’d love to hear what folks her have to say as well.

Thank you!

 

[Spork24]

It really depends on the destination, I would probably go ahead and book opening day. Just to be safe

 

[Shanti]

I know this is a hard question to answer, but I’d appreciate any helpful insight.

I have my eye on a cruise next June (‘19), and have asked my TA to call in on (Gold) opening day to get prices. I expect this fare to be around $15k (three staterooms/reservations).

However, I am also thinking about taking a short Merrytime cruise this November, at which point I could OBB the summer cruise for 10%, reduced deposit and $600 OBC.

So, I could book the summer cruise on opening day next week, see how much the fare changes for it when I sail this fall. If the OBB price is better, I could cancel the opening day res and rebook OBB. If the opening day fare is still better, I’ll just keep that res.

However, I don’t want to plan for all that if opening day will clearly be a better deal than OBB in November, or vice versa. I also don’t want to give DCL an eight-month interest-free loan on $3,000 (my opening-day deposit) if I don’t have to.

The real question, I guess, is how much the summer fare will increase between next week and November. Will it increase so much that it negates the OBB’s 10% discount + $600 OBC?

I know Touring Plans has a fare tracker that I can use, but I’d love to hear what folks her have to say as well.

Thank you!

Where are you cruising next June? If it's Alaska, there is about a 100% chance that you're better off booking it on opening day for gold. If the destination is Europe, the Bahamas or Caribbean, it's less predictable. It really depends on how popular the sailing is and how high they price it at the outset. Your best bet is to book now, then reshop it onboard if the price hasn't risen so much that there is no point.

Since you'll still be able to cancel without penalty in November, there is really nothing to worry about with this method.

 

[Geomom]

I think that in 8 mths the price may well go up over the 10% OBB discount, and if you want a particular room/area, that may be gone by November. Plus if you're booking 3 staterooms, with an OBB you'll only be able to book 2 with the discount.

If you were sailing within the next month, I'd probably say to wait and book it then as prices 'generally' don't increase that much in that timeframe...but it does depend on the itinerary.

 

[squirk]

It really depends on the destination, I would probably go ahead and book opening day. Just to be safe

Where are you cruising next June? If it's Alaska, there is about a 100% chance that you're better off booking it on opening day for gold. If the destination is Europe, the Bahamas or Caribbean, it's less predictable. It really depends on how popular the sailing is and how high they price it at the outset. Your best bet is to book now, then reshop it onboard if the price hasn't risen so much that there is no point.

Since you'll still be able to cancel without penalty in November, there is really nothing to worry about with this method.

I think that in 8 mths the price may well go up over the 10% OBB discount, and if you want a particular room/area, that may be gone by November. Plus if you're booking 3 staterooms, with an OBB you'll only be able to book 2 with the discount.

If you were sailing within the next month, I'd probably say to wait and book it then as prices 'generally' don't increase that much in that timeframe...but it does depend on the itinerary.

Thanks, all. The cruises in question are either the 8-day E. Carib. or 11-day S. Carib..

Each has a stop in St. Kitts. We have a big “Hamilton” fan in the family, so we’d be shooting over to Nevis to visit Alexander Hamilton’s birthplace.

 

[ILovePixieDust]

Those are both unique one off itineraries. Definitely best to book opening day.

 

[squirk]

Those are both unique one off itineraries. Definitely best to book opening day.

Darn it. Good point; I did not think of that.

 

[o&smom]

As already stated, book opening day and then when you are on your cruise you can have them check pricing at that time for you to see if there is any benefit with the OBB. Happy cruising!

 

[cyclenut]

As already stated, book opening day and then when you are on your cruise you can have them check pricing at that time for you to see if there is any benefit with the OBB. Happy cruising!

That's what we typically do. I think every time we check once on board, we find the opening day price to be better than what we can get with the OBB. That is especially true with special bookings such as our upcoming WBPC. When we checked just a few months after booking, we were told our cabin classification wasn't even available any longer and the inside cabins were now going for what we paid for our veranda cabin.

 

[cgolf]

So we did the best of both worlds. We booked opening day and then reshopped the cruise onboard and it was cheaper. The only difference for us was we were onboard within a week of the opening day prices.

So I would say book it now and reshop it when onboard.

 

[Figment_Fan]

I just got on to ask this same question. My situation is a little different. We are cruising in 4 weeks and the destination is the June Med cruises. Any thoughts?

 

[Figment_Fan]

I just got on to ask this same question. My situation is a little different. We are cruising in 4 weeks and the destination is the June Med cruises. Any thoughts?

 

[TestingH2O]

Assuming the funds are liquid for the deposit, I'd book on Opening Day and reshop on board.

 

[mab2012]

However, I don’t want to plan for all that if opening day will clearly be a better deal than OBB in November, or vice versa. I also don’t want to give DCL an eight-month interest-free loan on $3,000 (my opening-day deposit) if I don’t have to.

I get this, but realistically speaking, how much is that $3000 going to be worth to you over 8 months? I'd guess at most a couple hundred bucks in a relatively low-risk investment, or used to pay down longer-term debt. Could be a lot more invested aggressively, of course, but in that case it could also turn out to be a great deal less, so I'm not sure that's worth considering.

On the other side of the equation, a 20% price rise on your $15K cruise would end up costing you $600 even after OBB discount and OBC. Hard to know how much the price might rise, but 20% by November is probably conservative. By then you'll be 7 months out from your cruise, and even many of the shorter-term planners might have booked by then. It could be much, much more. And it sounds like you're not even sure yet that the November OBB opportunity will happen.

When it comes to giving corporations an advance on my money, I'm usually in the camp of "I'll keep it for now and take my chances on whether I want to use your services later". But in this case, if you're relatively sure about that summer cruise, I think I'd book it now.

 

[squirk]

I get this, but realistically speaking, how much is that $3000 going to be worth to you over 8 months? I'd guess at most a couple hundred bucks in a relatively low-risk investment, or used to pay down longer-term debt. Could be a lot more invested aggressively, of course, but in that case it could also turn out to be a great deal less, so I'm not sure that's worth considering.

On the other side of the equation, a 20% price rise on your $15K cruise would end up costing you $600 even after OBB discount and OBC. Hard to know how much the price might rise, but 20% by November is probably conservative. By then you'll be 7 months out from your cruise, and even many of the shorter-term planners might have booked by then. It could be much, much more. And it sounds like you're not even sure yet that the November OBB opportunity will happen.

When it comes to giving corporations an advance on my money, I'm usually in the camp of "I'll keep it for now and take my chances on whether I want to use your services later". But in this case, if you're relatively sure about that summer cruise, I think I'd book it now.

Thanks. Yes, if the price went up 20% over the next eight months, it’s a no-brainer.

I suppose that was the essence of what I needed to know - how much would the fare go up between now and November.

5%? I’m better off waiting and getting the OBB 10% discount. 10%? I’m still better off waiting.

Seems like the tipping point is around 11%. If the fare goes up that much, it’s a wash between booking early or booking OBB with 10% discount.