Only five more years of DHS being incredibly bad!!!!

[tjkraz]

There absolutely is truth to it. There's even evidence when looking at the NFL expansion. Phase 1: relocate Dumbo & Storybook. Phase 2: Mermaid & BOG. Phase 3: SDMT. Rinse, wash & repeat. Each "phase" is budgeted in smaller chunks to spread out the CAPEX required. Don't think the shareholders would be very happy to see those massive capital expenditures hitting the balance sheet all in one fiscal year...

Again, the dollars are going to "hit the balance sheet" over a period of 20 years or more, depending upon the useful life Disney forecasts when the assets are placed in service.

Staggering the opening of those areas of Fantasyland had as much to do with planning and construction coordination as anything else. Development on the Mine Train was well behind other plans. Original renderings and models had that space occupied by a Tinker Bell forest / meet-n-greet.

 

[DDLand]

Again, the dollars are going to "hit the balance sheet" over a period of 20 years or more, depending upon the useful life Disney forecasts when the assets are placed in service.

Staggering the opening of those areas of Fantasyland had as much to do with planning and construction coordination as anything else. Development on the Mine Train was well behind other plans. Original renderings and models had that space occupied by a Tinker Bell forest / meet-n-greet.

If I'm not mistaken, (@Andrew015 let me know if I am) he's not saying the costs are prohibitively high from an operations standpoint, but from a CapEx one. That capital Disney decides to allocate all at once towards Dumbo, Little Mermaid, etc. would mean Disney couldn't use that same dollar on stock repurchases or dividends. That would have the potential to create negative shareholder backlash, because instead of instant reward they're investing in a longterm project.

I think that's what he's saying.

Though I do agree with your other point on construction and development. That played a factor too.

 

[tjkraz]

If I'm not mistaken, (@Andrew015 let me know if I am) he's not saying the costs are prohibitively high from an operations standpoint, but from a CapEx one. That capital Disney decides to allocate all at once towards Dumbo, Little Mermaid, etc. would mean Disney couldn't use that same dollar on stock repurchases or dividends. That would have the potential to create negative shareholder backlash, because instead of instant reward they're investing in a longterm project.

Fair enough. But when it comes to Star Wars, let's not lose sight of the fact that completing such a major expansion is going to empower Disney to take another leap in its ticket pricing.

In 2012--a month before CarsLand opened--Disneyland announced huge price increases for its ticket media. All of their annual passes went up, with increases ranging from 22-35%!!!

I would certainly expect some logical staggering of investments across the parks, in a manner that suits both operational needs and budgetary. But the point of these expansions is to make more money. And Disney would be leaving a lot of money on the table if they unnecessarily stretch-out construction timelines by a year or more just so they can write a $200m check in 4Q 2020 instead of 4Q 2019.

 

[DDLand]

Fair enough. But when it comes to Star Wars, let's not lose sight of the fact that completing such a major expansion is going to empower Disney to take another leap in its ticket pricing.

In 2012--a month before CarsLand opened--Disneyland announced huge price increases for its ticket media. All of their annual passes went up, with increases ranging from 22-35%!!!

I would certainly expect some logical staggering of investments across the parks, in a manner that suits both operational needs and budgetary. But the point of these expansions is to make more money. And Disney would be leaving a lot of money on the table if they unnecessarily stretch-out construction timelines by a year or more just so they can write a $200m check in 4Q 2020 instead of 4Q 2019.

My thoughts exactly. The thing Disney had to have loved too... As they increased prices, attendance shot up too. I wouldn't be surprised if a similar story emerged at DHS and Disneyland. I'd also keep an eye on the CapEx spending in their reports, it should be taking a nosedive following first quarter of the new fiscal year. We won't see the benefits of decreased Shanghai spending for a while, but once we do it'll give them wiggle room to begin serious ramp up.

 

[Sybernova]

I love how these projects were just announced and people are already complaining how long they will take.

Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?

haha

If someone has heard they are building "star wars land" and has a once in a lifetime trip next summer, why shouldn't they be disappointed to see it isn't there? I get not everyone will do everything Disney has ever made, but for someone who gets one shot only to go, this update means nothing.

 

[KayKayJS]

Ill wait patiently but I hope its done within 2-3 years vs 5.

 

[rteetz]

If someone has heard they are building "star wars land" and has a once in a lifetime trip next summer, why shouldn't they be disappointed to see it isn't there? I get not everyone will do everything Disney has ever made, but for someone who gets one shot only to go, this update means nothing.

Yes but even if Disney was faster in construction they still wouldn't have it done in a year when they haven't even started yet. Announcing something ahead of time is a common practice and people should expect to see an entire land like this next year when they go.

 

[Andrew015]

Fair enough. But when it comes to Star Wars, let's not lose sight of the fact that completing such a major expansion is going to empower Disney to take another leap in its ticket pricing.

Like Disney needed an excuse? What was the justification for the ~70 - 100% price increases seen from 2000 - 2010?

 

[Reddog1134]

Like Disney needed an excuse? What was the justification for the ~70 - 100% price increases seen from 2000 - 2010?

Maybe I'm looking at this wrong but it seems like everyone uses the "One Day Ticket" to prove unfairly a point about Disney price increases.

In 2000, a single day ticket was $46. In 2010, it was $82. A fairly sizable increase, I'll admit. However, in 2005 Disney started frontloading ticket costs. So a 7 day park hopper in 2000 cost $296 and in 2010 it was $301. A whopping $5 increase.

Now I'm not saying their price increases are justified, but for length of stay tickets, I don't see them being that bad.

 

[walker0829]

My only complaint with DHS is the tiering for the FP. I hate that the Great Movie Ride is lumped in with some of the more premium attractions. I have a special place in my heart for the GMR but I'll risk the standby line for that over ToT any day!

 

[Andrew015]

Maybe I'm looking at this wrong but it seems like everyone uses the "One Day Ticket" to prove unfairly a point about Disney price increases.

In 2000, a single day ticket was $46. In 2010, it was $82. A fairly sizable increase, I'll admit. However, in 2005 Disney started frontloading ticket costs. So a 7 day park hopper in 2000 cost $296 and in 2010 it was $301. A whopping $5 increase.

Now I'm not saying their price increases are justified, but for length of stay tickets, I don't see them being that bad.

I'm not sure where you came up with those figures. Here's a list of historical ticket prices from Allears. http://allears.net/tix/MYWhistory.htm#MYW3

Just from 2005 - 2012, they show a 65% increase in a 7-day park hopper (14-day expiration - low price in 2005 of $195 per ticket, high price in 2012 of $322 per ticket) and a 93% increase for the same ticket w/ no expiration ($250 per ticket in 2005 up to $482 by 2012). You are correct in that Single-Day tickets got the worst of it, but the general trend was across the board (MYW tickets, AP's, etc.). Room rates are a very similar story.

 

[minnie-apple-mouse]

Like Disney needed an excuse? What was the justification for the ~70 - 100% price increases seen from 2000 - 2010?

I would say the expansion decade of the 90's, plus the 3 most popular attractions at WDW. I think they found how in demand they had become and the ticket prices raised from there.

The current decade has another $Billion going in-they (we) might find the same thing from 2020 to 2030.

If they finish these "lands" correctly, and then add arguably 3 of next most popular attractions during the 2020's-it would be following the same pattern.

EX:

Star Wars area turns out amazing and gets a Death Star attraction or whatever from the new movies in 2025.

Pandora gets a Tron style attraction from the new Avatar movies in 2023.

DHS gets a Monsters INC door ride or whatever, or maybe EPCOT finally gets another TT level in popularity in 2027.

If that was the repeated pattern-I could easily see tickets going up again that much by 2030.

 

[Reddog1134]

I'm not sure where you came up with those figures. Here's a list of historical ticket prices from Allears. http://allears.net/tix/MYWhistory.htm#MYW3

I got mine from Allears. http://allears.net/tix/tixpix00.htm

 

[Pigletpal40]

You also have to realize a lot of NFL was top of another floor(there's a whole other world under there). I'm sure there was a ton of engineering to support all the things put over that. These are the things nobody can see but the people placing the concrete.

 

[Reddog1134]

You also have to realize a lot of NFL was top of another floor(there's a whole other world under there). I'm sure there was a ton of engineering to support all the things put over that. These are the things nobody can see but the people placing the concrete.

I didn't think the Utilidors extended that far over.

 

[7series]

The sad part is why did it get into this sad state in the first place?

Can't wait until Epcot gets revamped in 20 years!!!!!!

The constant whining and complaining on these boards is just ridiculous. WDW is still awesome and a great place to have fun. If you hate it so much than stop going, forget all about it, and go somewhere else.

 

[DanBoris]

I didn't think the Utilidors extended that far over.

They don't, there was only a small part of the expansion that went on top of the utilidors.

 

[rteetz]

The constant whining and complaining on these boards is just ridiculous. WDW is still awesome and a great place to have fun. If you hate it so much than stop going, forget all about it, and go somewhere else.

Yes WDW is great and all of us love it that's why we are on this board. Being big fans we have a right to voice our opinions when something is wrong. If everything was perfect there would be no disboards. Disney doesn't build things fast that's a fact. That's usually the biggest complaint when projects like this are being discussed.

 

[Planogirl]

The constant whining and complaining on these boards is just ridiculous. WDW is still awesome and a great place to have fun. If you hate it so much than stop going, forget all about it, and go somewhere else.

I was wondering why it took so long for someone to come along and tell the OP to quit going. There's always that suggestion which helps no one.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Fair enough. But when it comes to Star Wars, let's not lose sight of the fact that completing such a major expansion is going to empower Disney to take another leap in its ticket pricing.

In 2012--a month before CarsLand opened--Disneyland announced huge price increases for its ticket media. All of their annual passes went up, with increases ranging from 22-35%!!!

I would certainly expect some logical staggering of investments across the parks, in a manner that suits both operational needs and budgetary. But the point of these expansions is to make more money. And Disney would be leaving a lot of money on the table if they unnecessarily stretch-out construction timelines by a year or more just so they can write a $200m check in 4Q 2020 instead of 4Q 2019.

Disagree on this one.

Tickets...by all personal experience with a little insight I to the books and really just common sense...are not to make profits - merely to be allocated buy and large to cover the operational expenses. It's parsing numbers in many ways...
But from an operational standpoint they absolutely do these things now to dilute the capex over as long a time as they think they can get away with - which is already to long frankly.

So yeah...there will be huge ticket increases..there are without relent every year...but it won't be to "make money" off people coming to the cantina bar - undoubtedly a mixed use boondoggle like apparently all of magic kingdom going forward...
It will be to shield the rising op costs - as the tickets always have.

Stretching the cap ex allows that plan to come closer to working.

And I don't know if anyone has been watching...but Disney is in deep trouble right now. Not necessarily in the context of "solvency"...but in the return on investment sense. It's not just the stock drop (18% is no "small thing")...it's china and how interconnected they are...Europe...maybe even the fact that oil is as worthless as it has been in 30 years and the economic power brokers don't know how to handle the fact that all that cash for oil may just dry up...

The problem of being too big.

A recession isn't so unlikely with each day.

...which means back to MGM - don't even bother with the particulars. If I had to bet I would say the only guarantee this stuff gets built is if they go now...but they hedged there.

What if the booking fall and downtown flops?
...you don't want to know the answer.