Last year I called at 7 am on the day reservations opened up (and as I recall, a bunch of dates opened all at once, rather than in the 90 day window as they are doing now), and was able to get Le Cellier for dinner. But yes, it is always good to have a back up *time* as well as a back up restaurant!
I would actually think availability would be a bit better this year since the economy stinks, prices have gone up, and you can no longer use just one TS entitlement for the meal.