OKW Oct 2011 - Low Risk to wait for 7 mo?

[wrighter]

Wanted to see what my fellow DVCers thought of this strategy:

It appears that I have convinced DH to pull the kids out of school next year so we can take them to MNSSHP!! Wahooooooo!!!!! We will likely be joined by my parents (who live across the country) and my sister with her hubs and 6 mo old. Cannot wait!!!!

The rest of our group will be using a discount to reserve through Disney at OKW. We are looking to stay the last full week of October - roughly the 22nd through the 29th. Ish. We own at AKV, and know we can make our ressies now for our home resort - and then of course switch over to OKW at the 7 month mark. My hesitation for doing so is this: To the best of my understanding, if we make a reservation at AKV that requires MORE points than the one we would use at OKW, we must use the superfluous points during the same use year. Which we would not be able to do. (If I'm incorrect here, give me a shout!!! I'd love to be wrong!!!)

So this is what I'm thinking: OKW always seems to be one of the resorts to fill last. If I DON'T make a ressie now AT ALL, but WAIT until our 7 month window to reserve at OKW, am I really taking that much of a risk? I feel like it's a pretty safe bet, but then again, I'm not a big gambler. Unless you count the slot machines.

What do you think, DISers? And educated risk, right? There will be SOMETHING available at the 7 month mark - yes? I won't get totally shut out? It's not like we're booking during Easter week or Christmas/New Years! All thoughts appreciated!!! Still trying to temper my excitement on this one - always like to keep it in check until ressies are made and airfare is purchased. Fingers crossed!

 

[bobbiwoz]

I'm actually in the same boat as you, but I can't book anything before 7 months because I'm going to be using banked HHI points from a resale that I don't have yet.

Regarding the points that you won't be needing if you book AKV now, and then change to OKW. Are you borrowing all of your points that you would be using. Is the 7 month window before or after your banking deadline? If after you book OKW (which I'm guessing you WILL be able to do) you then have points that are "bankable" you can do so. Just because you've reserved something with those points does not mean you can't bank them if you cancel the reservation. You can't bank them if they have already been banked, or if you are beyond the banking deadline.

Bobbi

PS. My DDiL had just asked me what dates we were thinking about for that Halloween time. We're hoping for Oct. 27 to Nov. 1st.

 

[bobbiwoz]

One more thing. Is a value villa more than the OKW would cost? Just in case you are borrowing, maybe that would help out with the number of points.

 

[hollis]

In the past, yes, OKW is one of the last resorts to fill. Doesn't seem that way any more. I think since the renovation, or may be because of the current economy people like to use less points, OKW runs out of rooms just about as fast as AKV (Kidani Savannah). BCV continues to be the first resort to run out of rooms.

Having said that, at 7 months out for end of October, I'd say it is pretty safe. Even if you don't get what you want on the first day you call (unlikely), your waitlist will come through quickly (in a few weeks). This is true for most resorts.

I think bobbiwoz already touched on your question about the remaining points when you switch from AKV to OKW.

 

[briangib]

I agree that you should be safe waiting for the 7 month window. If you are still worried about not getting that reservation, you can make a reservation for one less day at your home resort. Then you would have just one day to worry about if OKW isn't available but could still transfer without worrying about the extra points.

 

[bookwormde]

As long as it is not Columbus day weekend you should be fine

 

[DebbieB]

To the best of my understanding, if we make a reservation at AKV that requires MORE points than the one we would use at OKW, we must use the superfluous points during the same use year. Which we would not be able to do. (If I'm incorrect here, give me a shout!!! I'd love to be wrong!!!)

It depends. If the extra points are current year points, they would be returned to your account and you could bank them if it's before your banking deadline. What is your use year?

 

[dvcbrad]

I would be shocked if you had a problem getting into OKW at that time of year. Other than Epcot Food & Wine, it's a fairly slow period, and those that are there to go to F&W probably prefer to be at either BWV or BCV - I know we do. We thought the number of people at Epcot and DTD were smaller than at other times of the year, too.

Given all of that, thought, I wouldn't wait too much beyond the 7-month window to book, just to be comfortable. Good luck!