Official Hurricane Ivan Thread

[CM_Mom]

Well folks, guess what? Ivan's still there and still coming although there's still disagreement about what's going to happen after 48 hours. Let's hope Ivan the Terrible weakens to Ivan the Ignorable.

Here's the forecast.

HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 31 at 11 pm 9/9/04

I also like this site for information written in ENGLISH instead of WEATHER. A little egotistical but the info's still good.
Snonut's 2004 Hurricane Reports And the music is aggravating until you click on a specific report.

I'm going to be early tonight so I'll post again before I go to work tomorrow.

BTW, Lisa Loves Pooh, are you still out there and OK? Haven't heard from you in a while.

 

[cjsmith]

Everyone please keep you fingers crossed and say a prayer that it doesn't hit Florida again. Everyone's nerves are frayed. We were going to leave this morning and head to Atlanta, but have decided to stay and board up our home. I was lucky enough to get a generator and some plywood yesterday. We were on line for 2 hours to get the wood with SWAT members making sure we all were behaving. Some of the gas stations around here were out of gas last night and we should be getting more delivered today. The store shelves are already low due to Francis, but grocery shopping today should be fun.

I'm hoping we can keep our plans on arriving in Disney World on Wednesday night, really need the break after 3 hurricanes.

Our cruise in October is screwed up as Venezula got cancelled due to poliitcal problems and now Grenada is 90% destroyed. Hopefully there will be some southern Caribbean islands left for us to travel to.

Naples Florida was just on the today show in our Home Depot! It's not for a good thing and plywood is already sold out by 7:30 this am, no more for today. I have enough to board up half my house. It's off to find some.

Say a prayer for us all. Now if only I could stop being sick to my stomach and get some sleep I will be okay.

 

[currycook]

cjsmith, yes.

This is NOT looking good again. YUK YUK YUK is about all I can say.

 

[markey]

Please, please, do not take this in the wrong way. I love Florida and feel for the people who live there and wish them well and hopefully Ivan will miss. The hurricanes keep hitting basically the same areas, why are people still out buying plywood? I see lines on the TV and just wonder what did they do with the plywood used the 1st or 2nd time? By now I would hve thought everyone in Florida had a supply.

 

[gatour]

Several reasons why people are still buying plywood.

1. The stores did run out during the last hurricanes.
2. Different areas of the state are potential targets.
3. Different size storms, change the potential size of the impact area.

 

[dee30baby]

I'm not sure what the store's policies are for returning wood after the storm, but I'm sure there are people out that have tried to do just that. I have been told by store clerks that after Charlie blew through, people returned all the water, batteries and anything else they purchased before the storm figuring another hurricane coming the same way was unlikely & they would not need the supplies anymore. It normally is unlikely, but obviously not impossible.

There are also the procrastinators who believe the hurricane will miss the targeted area and they wait until the last minute to try and get the wood. My neighbor is this person....they made fun of my husband when he boarded up for Charlie & that storm was due to come right past us (Sarasota) to Tampa.

Some people are bizarre~

Diane

 

[CM_Mom]

Here's the latest

HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 33 at 11:00 am 9/10/04

HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 11:00 am 9/10/04

short version of the part we're interested in

THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT...IT BECOMES UNCERTAIN AFTER THE HURRICANE CROSSES CUBA WHEN GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE HURRICANE COULD CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO OR COULD TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER FLORIDA.

WEAKEN Ivan WEAKEN and GO AWAY

 

[HumanCookie]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 101749
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004

...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE SOON IN JAMAICA...PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA
FROM CABO CRUZ TO SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...
140 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CORE OF IVAN TO NEAR JAMAICA
TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER
ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 939
MB...27.73 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...16.8 N... 75.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

 

[erinch]

Do any of you hurricane watchers know of sites which project path and strength scenarios once these storms hit land and "move on up"?

We live in western pa and were hit with massive flooding when Frances got to us. Even the local forecasters were so focussed on the Florida impact that they didn't get around to thinking about inland destinations till it was almost on top of us.

I'm in no way saying our situation is comparable or worthy of notice by Floridians and all those in Ivan's direct path. But wondering what sites are best for inland predictions?

 

[jcemom]

erinch, I think it all depends upon where it makes landfall in the US. I could be wrong, but it sure seems to me that just about every hurricane that hit anwhere between Louisana and the central western shore of Florida eventually makes its way up to us.

Not sure how accurate it will be, but...

Check out this link.

 

[erinch]

thanks Tracey--
I'll keep an eye on it

 

[MarkRG]

Here's the current boatus projection: Click HERE

They're looking at it missing all of southern Florida.

 

[Grumbo]

erinich!!!!
Did Punxsutawney Phil survive?!?!?!
Sheesh I'd hate to see the poor little rodent drowned in his hole.

Cheers,
Grumbo

 

[Shebbieal]

Just a heads up~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

There is some talk on the local news that I 75 and I 95 will be converted to northbound traffic ONLY.

Anyone coming down here in the next couple of days explore alternate roads.

Be safe everyone!!

Sherry

 

[erinch]

Originally posted by Grumbo
erinich!!!!
Did Punxsutawney Phil survive?!?!?!
Sheesh I'd hate to see the poor little rodent drowned in his hole.

He cast a little "magic" circle right around Punxsy, but friends in Beaver, Butler, Allegheny counties and more got whalloped,courtesy of Frances. If Ivan wends up here eventually, things are totally at saturation point. Again, not that it compares with the situation in the southeast.

 

[CM_Mom]

erinch,

When the National Hurricane Center drops responsibility for a tropical system after it makes landfall, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center takes responsibility for issuing public advisories. Advisories are issued four times per day.

I got the quote from the NHC site and added the links. I think that's the one you'll want to be watching. The HPC site continues to issue latitude and longitude readings on where the storm is and to list rainfall totals.

Hope this helps.

 

[drclaws]

Originally posted by MarkRG
Here's the current boatus projection: Click HERE

They're looking at it missing all of southern Florida.

That path is still going to beat the heck out of the west coast of the state though. Puts it in the right front quadrant of the storm as it moves north.....

 

[CM_Mom]

The 5:00 pm forecast and discussion from the Tropical Prediction CenterTropical Prediction Center said:

ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND IVAN SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER...IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE UNTIL IT REACHES THE UNITED STATES.

Come on Bad Boy, WEAKEN Ivan WEAKEN

ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COULD HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD DUE TO THE NEW GUIDANCE...IT IS NOT PRUDENT TO MAKE A CHANGE AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOW BASICALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND KEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

Maybe they'll feel like shifting it westward at 11:00.

WEAKEN, WEAKEN, WEAKEN

 

[HumanCookie]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 102349
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004

...CORRECT INITIAL POSITION...

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IVAN STRENGTHENS AS IT APPROACHES JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS EFFECT FOR CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF
YOUTH...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA FROM CABO CRUZ TO SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
BRING THE CORE OF IVAN TO NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA TONIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY AND OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED
TERRAIN. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IVAN COULD REGAIN CATEGORY 5
STATUS AS IT PASSES JAMAICA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE WAS 926 MB...27.34 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...17.3 N... 76.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 926 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

 

[eagmommy]

Please no more hurricanes!!! I can't take it anymore!! I moved to Florida from California 8 years ago and I thought I was escaping the earthquakes, and now this! Oh well, keeps life interesting.