Offical Hurricane Frances thread!

[Lisa loves Pooh]

DRINKING AND POSTING DO NOT MIX...

Okay--I am up--and drinking water...

As far as what hotel--a hotel in Orlando is the best place to book b/c it is central to everywhere. There will not be any rooms when you arrive--you need to book now. I know you want to be close to whatever Port the Magic departs from, but waiting until they finally make a decision on where to go could leave you sleeping in your car the night before you cruise.

Here is the 5am Advisory---I am still going to post them--I know they are written in cryptic langauage--but they are not interpreted--and sometimes non-interpreted factual information works better than the translations--but I will find you a translation too...

Summary of advisory: she still moving--she is still strong--pressure is falling--that can make her stronger--continue making your evac plans and alternative travel plans.




000
WTNT31 KNHC 010832
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST WED SEP 01 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
WHICH INCLUDES ACKLINS...CROOKED...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA AND
RAGGED ISLANDS...AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHICH
INCLUDES CAT...EXUMAS...LONG ISLANDS...RUM CAY AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THE NORTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA GORDA WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO BAY.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST OR ABOUT 170
MILES... 270 KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH
...28 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER
THE THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES FRANCES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. WHILE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FRANCES COULD STILL
INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE BEFORE REACHING THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA...AND SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...21.2 N... 68.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 935 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Originally posted by CM_Mom
Hey guys, someone posted this several pages ago but I'm posting it again http://www.snonut.flhurricane.com/frances10.htm because it's written in ENGLISH instead of WEATHER! That means you can almost understand what he's saying.

Okay, I read his sight--and I'm all for English Translations--but please--to say "This is intensification should come as no surprise to anyone who has been reading here….I've been calling for it for a solid week."

I so am apalled when news organizations and individuals toot there own horn all in the name so you will watch them or go to their website or newspaper before going elsewhere.

And then after the incident they are all like "We said it first, We stayed with you, etc etc" Enough already--kudos to you now on with the news.

Okay off my soapbox on reporters and weather people.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Frances Closes On Florida; Possible Brevard Landfall
Floridians Brace For Frances Weeks After Charley

POSTED: 5:08 pm EDT August 31, 2004
UPDATED: 11:47 pm EDT August 31, 2004

MIAMI -- The Tropical Prediction Center continues to bring a powerful Hurricane Frances into Central Florida this weekend, possibly hitting land in Brevard County, Fla., according to Local 6 News meteorologist Tom Sorrells.

The projected path changed a bit early Wednesday.

View: Frances' Location and Projected Path



Instead of predicting the storm will hit Volusia County, Fla., the new model has it making a Brevard County track, Sorrells said.

"They say it'll come in southern Brevard County and then go almost straight up," Sorrells said. "We are starting to lose our wiggle room. It's coming closer and closer and it's still a very scary, nasty Category 4 hurricane."

Sorrells said the new predicted storm path could still be off by a few hundred miles.

At 11 p.m. EDT, Frances was centered about 270 miles east of Grand Turk Island, which is southeast of the Bahamas.

Frances was moving west-northwest near 16 mph, the National Hurricane Center in Miami reported.


Frances was forecast to plow through the Bahamas on Thursday or Friday before hitting the U.S. mainland, but large prediction errors mean that millions of coastal residents should be on guard, hurricane center director Max Mayfield said.

"People are shaky about this. You've got to pay attention to these things. These are people killers," said Manny Fernandez, chairman of the University of Florida Board of Trustees and a resident of Sanibel, a barrier island in the Gulf of Mexico where Charley hit.


Vacationers Canceling In Daytona

Hoteliers in Daytona Beach, Fla., who were planning for one of the biggest holiday weekends of the year are now predicting the weekend will be a wash because of Hurricane Frances, according to Local 6 News.


Video


Labor Day Vacationers Canceling In Daytona







A spokesman for the Hotel-Motel Association said they have already received many cancellations for weekend stays at Volusia County, Fla., hotels.

"With the storm on the horizon, a lot of people are still not sure what they want to do," Hotel-Motel spokesman Bob Davis said. "After the last storm, Charley, they know it is for real. They are taking this one seriously."


Several of the hotels in the area are still recovering from damage caused by Hurricane Charley on Aug. 13.

Residents Prepare For Frances

The prospect of another powerful Category 4 hurricane, this one with 140-mph top sustained winds, had people thinking of fleeing, stocking up on food and water and buying plywood and hardware to fortify their homes. State and federal emergency officials were getting ready to repeat a disaster response.



"I'd like to get through with this one first before we start the next one. If it comes here I'm going to fly my family to North Dakota or something like that," said C.W. Blosser, 37, a paramedic who spent Charley in a hurricane shelter in rural Arcadia. "I don't know anybody in North Dakota and never heard anything bad happening in North Dakota, so it must be a good place."



HURRICANE FRANCES
Public Advisory
Discussion
Projected Path
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
INTERACTIVE: Hurricanes 101
INTERACTIVE: Atlantic Hurricane Tracker
INTERACTIVE: All About Flooding
National Hurricane Center
QUIZ: Survive This Hurricane Quiz!




Frances was still several days from the United States Tuesday, but its winds were almost as strong as those in Charley, which slashed across the Florida peninsula Aug. 13. Long-range projections for Frances had it possibly ramming somewhere along the southeastern U.S. coast, including Florida, this weekend.


Coordinates earlier Tuesday from the Tropical Prediction Center showed Frances moving north and possibly away from Central Florida as it heads to the mainland, according to Local 6 News meteorologist Reynolds Wolf.


State officials worried about finding hotel rooms and shelters for people who may need to evacuate. Many hotel rooms in the southern half of the state are occupied by people Charley left homeless and emergency workers from other states. Charley also damaged some schools and community centers that had been used as shelters.

But Federal Emergency Management Agency officials said they were ready.

"We have all the operations, all the resources that we need to respond to a major emergency," FEMA spokesman Justo Hernandez said.


With top sustained winds of 145 mph, Charley destroyed or heavily damaged more than 30,000 homes. It was estimated to cost insurers $7.4 billion for damage to homes, businesses and personal possessions such as cars. It was the worst natural disaster to hit hurricane-prone Florida since Hurricane Andrew in 1992, which caused $15.5 billion in insured damage and killed 15 people when it hit southern Miami-Dade County.

Despite the losses from Charley, insurers should be able to weather another catastrophe without a slew of bankruptcies like those caused by Andrew, said Bob Hartwig, chief economist for the Insurance Information Institute.

U.S. insurers had more than $300 billion in reserves to pay claims as of March 2004, he said. Higher premiums since Andrew left insurers in better financial shape. Florida now has a hurricane catastrophe fund, which can provide up to $15 billion in reinsurance, or insurance for the companies themselves, to help them pay for major disasters.


Because long-range forecasts aren't always accurate, "we're strongly urging residents ... from the Carolinas southward to Florida to continue to monitor Frances," hurricane center meteorologist Michelle Mainelli said.

Plywood, gas cans, chain saws, tarps and other hurricane-preparation items were "flying off the shelves" in Home Depot Inc. stores along the southeastern U.S. coast, company spokesman Don Harrison said. The company trucked in more supplies, but generators were scarce.

Carmen Cardenas, 64, and her husband bought a tarp, dead-bolt locks, a saw and batteries at a Home Depot in suburban Miami.

"After seeing the destruction from Hurricane Andrew and Hurricane Charley, you can't do anything but be prepared. This is no joke. This is not fun and games," she said.

Jacksonville-based Winn-Dixie Stores Inc. also noticed people buying more batteries, water and canned food at its supermarkets, company spokeswoman Kathy Lussier said.

Ward Perry, a desk clerk at the Aku Tiki Inn in Daytona Beach, had a simple message for Frances: "I don't want to see another one." A tree fell through part of the hotel's roof when Charley hit. He said he was getting ready for Frances "but, yes, I am scared."


Copyright 2004 by Internet Broadcasting Systems and Local6.com. The Associated Press contributed to this report. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed

 

[my3kids]

Look at this crazy thing. It looks like a plate of spagetti. This is a grapic of all the various computer models of the potential storm track.

http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/06LALLMDL.html

 

[C.Ann]

Originally posted by my3kids
Look at this crazy thing. It looks like a plate of spagetti. This is a grapic of all the various computer models of the potential storm track.

http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/06LALLMDL.html

-----------------------------

My goodness! That looks like it could hit just about anywhere! My main concerns (although I am concerned for ANYONE in it's path) are:

Vero Beach (my brother lives there)

Daytona Beach/Ormond Beach area (step-daughter and her son)

West Palm Beach/Port St. Lucie (Best friends yr-round home)

Lady Lake (where my sis will be headed in Oct.)

Orlando (where "Mickey" lives and all my DISer friends go)

North Carolina (my son-in-law's relatives live there)

Panama City/Lynn Haven (cousins live there)

Apopka (oldest DD lives there)

-------------------

Can anyone shed some light on the latest projections? This is really scary - especially after learning of all the damage that Charley caused INLAND !!

 

[WisconsinDisneyGirl]

I am looking at the lastest NOAA map and it is said to hit at 2am Sunday around Brevard Co. Where the heck it that? Is it near Orlando. I made reservations last night at the County Inn and St. International Dr. for Friday and Sat. (got those for free! and I robooked my rental car and got an even better deal!!!!). When I look at those maps I just don'e know what area I am looking at! All of my books are packed as we are moving the day we get back from our vacation on Sept. 12 so I don't have any of my map books.

 

[cjsmith]

They are being very careful about casting any projections this early on down here in Florida. They just had the spokesman for the Hurricane Center in Miami on and he wouldn't give any real answers. Just said it's huge, going to be a very strong hurricane and wide ranging and basically gave almost all of Florida as the "cone" where it could cause damage. I guess after missing where Charley was going to hit, they need to cover their butts!

It's very disconcerting because it gives none of us any direction as to what to really expect. I've seen charts shwoing it coming into Miami and then straight across to my area, to hitting around the Palm Beach area, to the Cocoa Beach area and then across to Disney. Who the heck knows at this point. All I know is I'm going to need a good stiff drink by tomorrow night!

 

[LibertyBelle]

Brevard County is the coast of Central Florida. If you look at this Hurrican track map:

http://www.wftv.com/sponsor/3693911/detail.html

Brevard would be where the Hurricane is coming in (on this map) and Orlando is where the H in the center of the state is (marked 2am Sunday). The local weather has reported that they are anticipating a brevard County landfall as a Cat 4 and the Orlando should be seeing a Cat 2 force storm shortly thereafter. Of course it is still far out and the course could and will change throught the next two days, so just make sure that you are aware of the changes.

 

[sap1227]

Originally posted by C.Ann
-----------------------------

Apopka (oldest DD lives there)
-------------------

Can anyone shed some light on the latest projections? This is really scary - especially after learning of all the damage that Charley caused INLAND !!

I think we just really do not know. As we all learned from Charley, you have to be prepared, because the actual path can quickly change from the projected path. We spent yesterday getting our house clean in case we have guests (after Charley we had to stay with my parents for 5 days since we were without power).

C.Ann~ I live in Apopka, small world

 

[wovenwonder]

 

[izzinmac]

Port Canaveral is in Brevard County. So am I. Latest track has it entering right on the Brevard/Indian River County line. Indian River County is just below Brevard. Last night it was Brevard right at the Cape. So it is bouncing around but still close by! The hard part now is trying to decide where to evacuate - North? South? West? The only option we have eliminated is East!

 

[GrumpyMom1]

Yikes!!! That path shows it going right over Castaway Cay and straight for Port Canaveral. I'm praying for all of you in Florida and those that are cruising next week.

 

[TexasGirl]

Is is possible at all that they will delay the Sat sailing 9/4 out of Cape Canv. to a Sunday sailing? 9/5

 

[psimon]

Originally posted by TexasGirl
Is is possible at all that they will delay the Sat sailing 9/4 out of Cape Canv. to a Sunday sailing? 9/5

If they did that with the Magic, where would they put the Wonder? Doesn't the Wonder sail in and out of port on Sundays?

---Paul in Southern NJ

 

[LibertyBelle]

Port Canaveral is full on Sunday, The Carnival Fantasy, Disney Wonder and the Mariner of the Seas are all in port on Sunday..there would be no room for the Magic or the Carnival Glory that docks with the Magic on Saturday's.... this is going to be interesting to see how this plays out.

 

[ganurse]

what are the chances of it being canceled?

 

[CaribGirl]

What about cancellations? We are on the Wonder on the 5th (Sunday) and got called by DCL for a check of my contact numbers. But no clear answer as to where or what they will do. Also if they decide to move to a different port, we'll have to go there. They did mention that they will bus people to wherever they go. Biggest concern is leaving my house right here on the Space Coast. They did mention (DCL) that they never had to cancel a cruise!!!

Turn Baby Turn!

 

[Miss Jasmine]

Port Canaveral is in Brevard County. So am I. Latest track has it entering right on the Brevard/Indian River County line. Indian River County is just below Brevard. Last night it was Brevard right at the Cape. So it is bouncing around but still close by! The hard part now is trying to decide where to evacuate - North? South? West? The only option we have eliminated is East!

I am in Brevard, too. And I HAD a plan to go to Orlando (still holding the ressies just in case). But I feel there is no GOOD place to evacuate to. This thing could really hit anywhere. And by the time we are certain, it will be too late.

 

[wnissen]

First, I just need to say TURN, BABY, TURN!!!

Second, this is a little scary, but you can actually see Castaway Cay on the tracking map that was just posted. Between the 2AM Fri and 2AM Sat marks, there's a C shaped collection of islands to the northeast of the line. About 1/3 of the way along the line from 2AM Fri, inside the "C", there is one tiny little dot that is actually touching the line. That is Castaway Cay! If you are having trouble finding it, I like the map at http://www.go-abacos.com/theabs/theab_map.html

Walt

 

[C.Ann]

Originally posted by Miss Jasmine
I am in Brevard, too. And I HAD a plan to go to Orlando (still holding the ressies just in case). But I feel there is no GOOD place to evacuate to. This thing could really hit anywhere. And by the time we are certain, it will be too late.

---------------------------

That is so scary - and so sad.. Dang hurricane!! Do you have a safe area in your home? (Well - as "safe" as you can get..) Do you have what you need (flashlights etc.) in case you have to ride it out in the bathtub or whatever?

I feel SOOOO bad for all of you down there - and of course I'm concerned for all of my assorted relatives that are in the "anywhere" path..

Please keep us posted as you can..

God bless all and be safe!!