October crowds revised....

Stephy811

Mouseketeer
Joined
Oct 3, 2017
Messages
235
I know there have been many discussions of why crowd calendars are worthless...not trying to re-hash. For those of you that use TP for general planning and/or itineraries, any thought on recent crowd adjustments? All of my dates in October went down 1-2 levels?! Doesn’t look like park hours changed. I am cautiously optimistic...
 
I know there have been many discussions of why crowd calendars are worthless...not trying to re-hash. For those of you that use TP for general planning and/or itineraries, any thought on recent crowd adjustments? All of my dates in October went down 1-2 levels?! Doesn’t look like park hours changed. I am cautiously optimistic...


News to my ears!!! Thanks!
 

I think on the Disney Dish that Len hinted that Disney was offering more hotel incentives to their CMs -- which is usually only done if Disney is having a hard time selling rooms. My guess is that with Star Wars land opening up late 2019 -- there are quite a few families foregoing their 2018 trip and waiting until 2019 to come.
 
I didn't get notice for my end of October dates, but judging from the fact that I can't even get a room my final night I'm not optimistic. Maybe we should move to earlier in the month?
 
The blog post explained it. Apparently they got more data on school breaks around that time. Also speculation that people are holding off until SW:GE.

Our dates are 10/20 through 10/27 so I was happy to see it even if I don’t put any stock in crowd calendars myself. Prepare for the worst is my motto.
 
Our early November dates also were reduced by 1-2 levels per day.
 
There are some signs out there that they may not be booking as many rooms as they have the last few years for Q4. I could be wrong, but the fact they extended the booking window for the free dining offer shows they are "slow" this year compared to the last couple of years. I really do think some folks who were going later in the year may be holding off to go later in the year next year for SW GE. Why would you not if that is something that is important to you, you can only go late in the year, and you can't go every year?
 
Our dates are set at Oct 17-22 due to DD college schedule. We've been coming in Oct for years and years, and crowds have seemed to increase in recent years.

Initially I booked POP for our arrival night, since we get in late. After thinking about it for a few days....Decided to switch it to Poly for our entire trip, so we don't have to relocate.

I cannot find availability at the Poly for Oct. 17th, and I've been checking daily for over a month...
 
Although SW:GE may impact some guests' plans to come next year instead of this year, I'm skeptical that it's driving the numbers down now. We've heard that a slow start to this summer might have resulted from TSL's opening and pushing people to go after June 30 (which may not have been the case after all). We're hearing now that SW:GE is causing lower numbers for the 2nd half of 2018. If the numbers are below expectation towards the end of next year or early 2020, I'm sure we'll hear that it's because people are waiting for the 50th Anniversary.

It'd be just as easy to say that many people were waiting for Pandora to open this past year, that its debut lead to higher than average attendance, and that crowds now are returning to normal (but that's looking backwards and not as exciting as the anticipation of guests waiting for the new thing).

There's always something new around the corner, but not many people shift vacation schedules around (by a year or more no less) to accommodate those debuts. Not to say some people don't - just not the vast majority of guests (many of whom may have only the faintest idea of SW:GE - if they're really aware of it at all). There are any number of reasons for why people aren't booking - and not all of those are as charitable to Disney (and many of its recent policies and price increases) as anticipation of a new land.
 
Got the same email over the weekend. Our days for October wnet down 2-3 points. Not sure if this is accurate and the previous ones weren't, or if these are wrong.
Not counting on it, but hoping these lower crowd numbers are correct.
 
That is great and hopeful information. I have noticed that some hotels have rooms available but not a lot of the standard rooms but sometimes I think they hold those off when they have to many higher priced rooms in hopes that people will just book them but I was prepared for a jammed pack trip but I feel better after hearing this.
 
Mine also went down a lot. No idea if accurate, but nice to see.

This is all so weird to me this year. I remember some people saying about a week or so ago the crowds this summer seemed heavier than they expected. Others saying it was manageable and then others saying Disney opened up more stuff for CMs and opened block out dates because numbers werent up.

So...is it actually crowded currently or are numbers down?!? We will never know.
 
Anyone have dates around Thanksgiving and the week after? Any movement on those dates?
 
Mine also went down a lot. No idea if accurate, but nice to see.

This is all so weird to me this year. I remember some people saying about a week or so ago the crowds this summer seemed heavier than they expected. Others saying it was manageable and then others saying Disney opened up more stuff for CMs and opened block out dates because numbers werent up.

So...is it actually crowded currently or are numbers down?!? We will never know.

I think it's hard for us to know for sure because we don't have the actual numbers. It's also hard to judge because if Disney expects lower crowds (based on reservations and tickets), then they may reduce staff. A reduction in staff could cause longer lines at rides, restaurants, etc. So, even though you may go on a Crowd Level 1 day, it may not feel that way if the staff has been reduced.

There may be some ways to tell like shows that have a specific number of seats (Frozen Sing a long, Festival of the Lion King, Indiana Jones). Either they're full or they're not. Parade/Fireworks viewing (did you have to find a place an hour before or a half hour before?).
 
My levels went up before my most recent late nov/early dec trip. And the crowds were worse then usual. So, better down then up! Haven’t checked them for my upcoming trip.
 
I have some really low days now (like 1s and 2s) which will be nice. Most of them stayed close in the lower middle (3-5). Nice to have less of a crowd to deal with if these stay true.
 
Got the same email for early-mid September.
Late September/Early October also went down by two, sometimes three levels. I'm fairly optimistic this trip will turn out to be pretty enjoyable despite the heat and the rain!
 


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