I remember (selfishly) thinking in March 2020 that I was glad that COVID was happening then so that it would be "out of the way" by my planned trip in November 2020. As the summer went on and it was clear COVID wasn't going anywhere, I rescheduled the November 2020 trip to November 2021 because I thought there was NO WAY that restrictions would still be in place. Now, today, I fully expect to still have restrictions when I take my son there in 8 months.
If this whole process has taught me anything, its that we really have NO idea what this virus will do. I personally think that we are trending downward but there really isn't any way to know what the future holds. The US is vaccinating approximately 1% of the population every 3 to 4 days and that doesn't seem to be any slowing down. To put some more meat on those numbers, the US had vaccinated 7.8% of the population by Feb 1, 2021. The latest statistics for yesterday (Feb 28) was 14.9%. Those numbers may even accelerate up as the weather warms and more places become vaccination sites. Also, the winter storms of February surely slowed transportation of the vaccines, so I expect March's rise to be even higher.
Beyond all this, no one really knows what Disney's plan is. COVID numbers could be extremely low but they choose to keep restrictions in place. It's a waiting game at this point. My recommendation would be to book the November trip and monitor the situation as it gets closer. If there isn't enough "magic" (and only you can gauge this) for you yet, reschedule the trip to spring 2022 or later. At least this way you'll have something booked in the event there is the drastic change you're looking for.
