NOAA Huricane perdiction 2006

[dismama]

We are going 9/25-9/30 and have no plans in changing our trip.

We did purchase trip insurance just in case.

 

[ZIPBAGS]

We are going Aug.23-29 and we are not changing. They can predict 1 storm....And it could be when I am there...Or they can predict 10 storms and I miss each of them. Their is nothing you can do about it.


Just pray for....

 

[markwake]

We are going Aug.23-29 and we are not changing. They can predict 1 storm....And it could be when I am there...Or they can predict 10 storms and I miss each of them. Their is nothing you can do about it.


Just pray for....

We're going in early August, with or without a hurricane bearing down on WDW.

 

[C50T]

Last week of Sept. for us! I'd rather be hunkering down in Disney, than watching TV and second guessing at home.

 

[vital]

No changes for me! If I can survive Hurricane Dennis, Cindy and Emily while on a cruise last 4th of July, I can also brave Disney!

P.S. I also survived Katrina so I think I've payed my dues for a while!

P.S.S. We are going June 19-25!

 

[tribus121]

We are going 9/11 to 9/21 come _____ or high water ( Or Hurricane ) The only thing that would stop us is if our flights are cancled .

 

[FINFAN]

Well, if Hurricane "HUNGRY" is planning on coming to WDW for free dining with us, he better wait in line and us his/her manners! While it is in the back of our minds, there is no way this far out to predict so...who knows, if we see it barrelling toward FL a day out, we will make up our minds then. Just like we would do for any natural disaster for any vacation we would have planned.


Pam

 

[goofie4goofy]

There is a reason WDW calls Sept "value" season and why most of the resorts in the caribbean close for the month of September. The weather is just too unstabel at that time of year so many places do n ot accept guests but instead do renovations on the resorts and board up if a storm is on the way. Also keep in mind, Sept is not just hurricane season, but is rainy season, tropical storms and depressions are more likely to happen during this time.

Dr. Grey is pretty accurate on the number of hurricanes on a given season. There are many things that contribute to this...Ocean temps, jet streams and El Nino/Nina or the lack of. There will be an update in about 2 months that refines the predictions.

We always go in September...we love it. We usually book late August early Sept as we like to see how the weather is. Usually there are hurricanes off the coast of Africa and they take about 10 days or so to cross the Atlantic basin....some dissipate, go north, but the experts usually know which ones need watching. Aslo there are tropical depressions which take days to brew somewhere areound the Bahamas. Either way, you have plenty of notice and there are many websites that are pretty good at predicting the storms path.

That being said, we were in WDW during a hurricane and I can tell you it was one of the best trips we ever had there. The parks were empty the day before and even though we were bound to the GF for the day of the hurricane we had a blast. We were in the main building which I think makes a difference. They did give 1 day park tix to make up for the day we could not go, so we wound up adding a day to our trip. Not only was the parks clean and ready to go by 10am the next day, but they were empty too.

My only concern would be to GET to WDW if a storm was coming, so we would definately leave a day early to get there.

 

[WeLoveThePoly]

We're going at the end of October. Hopefully things will have quieted down by then but we'll keep a watch on things and change things around if needed.

Debbie

 

[Evil Queen]

We're going at the end of October. Hopefully things will have quieted down by then but we'll keep a watch on things and change things around if needed.

Debbie

Last 2 season down here we had hurricanes in October. Wilma was late October last year, and most kids on the SE coast of Florida lost out on Halloween activities, due to no power-no street or house lights.

I remember growing up we were more watchful July and August. Now it seems to be Sept. and Oct.

Not trying to scare anyone cause I surely am not.

I would encourage everyone to go on with their vacation plans.

 

[Feralpeg]

Actually, if you could predict when a hurricane is going to strike, that would be a great time to book a WDW vacation. The day just before the hurricane hits and the day after are wonderful at the parks. You practically have the place to yourself.

You couldn't be in a safer place. While a lot of private homes lost power during the hurricanes, WDW resorts did not. We stayed at AKL during Frances and the staff bent over backwards to make our stay comfortable.

The day we checked in, all of these people were checking out and hitting the road. Not a good place to be in a storm. They would have been so much better off to stay put, enjoy the resort and take advantage of the down time at the parks immediately following the storm.

 

[CalvaryMike]

NOAA: 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

SUMMARY
[font=verdana,arial]NOAA’s 2006 Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates an 80% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 15% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season. This outlook is produced by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), National Hurricane Center (NHC), and Hurricane Research Division (HRD). See NOAA’s definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons.[/font]

[font=verdana,arial]The outlook calls for a very active 2006 season, with 13-16 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, and 4-6 major hurricanes. The likely range of the ACE index is 135%-205% of the median. This prediction indicates a continuation of above-normal activity that began in 1995. However, we do not currently expect a repeat of last year’s record season.[/font]

[font=verdana,arial]The predicted 2006 activity strongly reflects an expected continuation of conditions associcated with the multi-decadal signal, which has favored above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995. These conditions include considerably warmer than normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs), lower wind shear, reduced sea level pressure, and a more conducive structure of the African easterly jet. An updated Atlantic hurricane outlook will be issued in early August, which begins the peak months (August-October) of the hurricane season.[/font]

 

[pansmermaidzlagoon]

I agree with FeralPeg - as long as you can get there, it is a great place to be (we weathered Hurricane Frances!!!). It is a safe place and they take good care of you. We experienced the coolest day we had ever seen at AK (as the storm was coming in) - with a nice breeze!! . We were able to do so much more because it was so eerily quiet and slow both before and after the storm. We only lost one day, but it didn't matter - we were actually able to do more and we had a really relaxing time at the resort, so we were rested toward the end of our trip instead of wiped out! Of course, if you love the hustle and bustle of the crowds, it is just not the same.

We were at Poly Concierge and the staff was incredible.

When we got home, our friends and neighbors were ready to hear about how our trip was a downer, but they were surprised that we actually had a great time!

 

[Ted and Holly]

I would not put too much stock in the predictions of the year. While they may be predicting a "calmer" season this year, keep in mind that the predicitons for 2005 where actually lower than those of 2006:

2005:
"NOAA's prediction for the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season is for 12 to 15 tropical storms, with seven to nine becoming hurricanes, of which three to five could become major hurricanes,"

2006:
[font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]"For the 2006 north Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become 'major' hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher,"

Although WDW is a safe place to be in a hurricane with the location inland and the infrastructure, if I knew a major hurricane was heading towards Central Florida when I was to be there for vacation, I would consider rescheduling.

Hurricanes are no joke. And just because WDW did well in the 2004 season, does not mean it is invincible.

Ted
[/font]

 

[gems_smiling]

We are going 9/1 for 9 nights. I agree that as long as we get there, it should be fine. I am worried about it because I would be heartbroken not to be able to go because i have got so excited for this trip.

 

[Miss Jasmine]

Although WDW is a safe place to be in a hurricane with the location inland and the infrastructure, if I knew a major hurricane was heading towards Central Florida when I was to be there for vacation, I would consider rescheduling.

Hurricanes are no joke. And just because WDW did well in the 2004 season, does not mean it is invincible.

Ted

Exactly, the safest place to be is OUT of the path of a hurricane. The less crowded parks is no reason to put your and your family's lives in danger.

 

[Ted and Holly]

We are going 9/1 for 9 nights. I agree that as long as we get there, it should be fine. I am worried about it because I would be heartbroken not to be able to go because i have got so excited for this trip.

At risk of being told that I am over-reacting or being called an alarmist, how disappointed do you think someone would be if a hurricane-spawned tornado took the roof off their hotel room and did some personal damage to them or their family.

Far inland, hurricane force winds and lots of rain are not the only things to worry about. On the east or "dirty" side of a hurricane, the conditions are perfect for spawning tornados.

I know that predicting a hurricane's exact path is close to impossible, but as I said above, if I knew one had a chance of cutting across Central Florida when I was supposed to be there, I would not be sticking to a go/no go decision I made before the season even started.

Ted

 

[helenm29]

Hey Ted and Holly: I totally understand where you are coming from although I hope that the decision to go or not to does not come up. I still plan on going in October but if something should come up...like a Hurricane..I would have to make the decision on weather it was safe enough of not because my family ALWAYS comes first. I have faith and a lot of Pixie Dust on hand that everything will be smoothe sailing!