No ROFR in April

[zakdavid]

According to this

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blo...suFopJiSZ_6fgbVLZO78cnBVO8DMF2XfQeV2ry2OdA9C8

 

[sethschroeder]

There seems to be less contracts being purchased though. It says roughly 50 contracts in April out of 800 contracts in 2020 so far.

Actually have doing the math that is a HUGE tank. Could be like another thread where the listing of contracts is slowing.

 

[zakdavid]

I am also curious if other brokers are having buybacks, if they are sending in lower prices

 

[sethschroeder]

Nothing in the ROFR thread that was taken so far either.

I would suspect Disney lowered their threshold with being closed and to me the prices haven't dropped that much.

Glad I sold my 30 and 50 points contracts for $155 and $150 /point each for BWV last month. Just holding my main contract for 150 points. Will either add on direct for 100 points or wait for resale to keep coming down as I stripped the 80 points for 2 years before selling them.

 

[JETSDAD]

There seems to be less contracts being purchased though. It says roughly 50 contracts in April out of 800 contracts in 2020 so far.

Actually have doing the math that is a HUGE tank. Could be like another thread where the listing of contracts is slowing.

Where did it say sales have reduced? They posted another blog showing more sales over the past 4 weeks than the same 4 week period last year.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-april-2020/

 

[sethschroeder]

Where did it say sales have reduced? They posted another blog showing more sales over the past 4 weeks than the same 4 week period last year.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-april-2020/

I misread the first chart. Thought it was saying stuff sent to ROFR in April but it was saying contracts that had taken back.

It helps when I actually read correctly haha

 

[JETSDAD]

As much as I've been hoping to be able to pick up a deal, I don't think the market is going to crash the way people seem to be expecting (especially on here). If things stay closed up for a long time, sure, but if things start opening back up in the next month then I just don't see it. Prices drop drastically when there is a lack of buyers or an oversupply of listings....neither seems to be the case right now.

 

[sethschroeder]

As much as I've been hoping to be able to pick up a deal, I don't think the market is going to crash the way people seem to be expecting (especially on here). If things stay closed up for a long time, sure, but if things start opening back up in the next month then I just don't see it. Prices drop drastically when there is a lack of buyers or an oversupply of listings....neither seems to be the case right now.

I think a slowing of listings now could lead to oversupply later. I doubt that less people want to sell just less are listing it while Disney is closed.

 

[Vkothari916]

It’s interesting that prices on average haven’t gone down that much from March and in some resorts have actually gone up. I agree that prices likely won’t collapse. Buyers are still buying.

 

[CastAStone]

As much as I've been hoping to be able to pick up a deal, I don't think the market is going to crash the way people seem to be expecting (especially on here). If things stay closed up for a long time, sure, but if things start opening back up in the next month then I just don't see it.

There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty relating to both the economy and WDW.

Generally speaking (and there’s a certainly exceptions) the hammer hasn’t fallen on people with incomes sufficient to afford DVC. Most are working, and to the extent that some are furloughed, most of those people are waiting to hear what’s next. Marriott will probably employ as many people as it did in January in 36 months. But it’s not clear if that will be true in 3, 6, 12, or even 24 months. Until there’s clarity their employees are not making big economic decisions in either direction unless forced.

Now if for example Golden Corral or JC Penney goes chapter 7 this summer, there will suddenly be a bunch of higher income office workers with no job and few prospects. And that can spiral quickly. And IF that happens, we’ll almost certainly see a significant drop in prices regardless of the open status of WDW.

 

[gharter]

Not surprising that there were fewer contracts sold in April. With the economy where it is, that would be expected.
Congrats to the lucky ones who may have gotten a great deal and Disney passed on ROFR.

 

[Anuhea35]

I was one of the lucky ones this month that got away with a good deal. Don’t really need anymore points but if another good one comes along, why not try again

 

[JETSDAD]

Not surprising that there were fewer contracts sold in April. With the economy where it is, that would be expected.
Congrats to the lucky ones who may have gotten a great deal and Disney passed on ROFR.

But there weren't fewer contracts sold??

 

[Eric Smith]

As much as I've been hoping to be able to pick up a deal, I don't think the market is going to crash the way people seem to be expecting (especially on here). If things stay closed up for a long time, sure, but if things start opening back up in the next month then I just don't see it. Prices drop drastically when there is a lack of buyers or an oversupply of listings....neither seems to be the case right now.

I think it will depend on how fast the economy recovers. Assuming the parks start to reopen within a month or two, I think the bigger issue is whether people need to ditch contracts.

 

[glamdring269]

As much as I've been hoping to be able to pick up a deal, I don't think the market is going to crash the way people seem to be expecting (especially on here). If things stay closed up for a long time, sure, but if things start opening back up in the next month then I just don't see it. Prices drop drastically when there is a lack of buyers or an oversupply of listings....neither seems to be the case right now.

I think if we see a massive crash it's going to be if/when this virus shuts us down again in the fall. Of course at that point you might not care that prices plummet.

 

[EM Lawrence]

I still think prices will go down because the economy is going down. All I see in the news is layoffs and poor economic outlook. Many white collar jobs are being lost, and this shutdown will have ripple effects in the economy that are not obvious right now. If people don’t need to sell immediately, of course they are going to look at what the prices were two months ago and what they are now and decide that they will wait it out. (It is going to be a long wait, IMHO.) Some sellers probably thought they would get out while the getting was still good, and that is likely why there were still a lot of deals in April. Conversely, optimistic buyers who thought the price reductions would be short lived snapped up contracts that were discounted compared to two months ago. It’s the people that will need to sell, coupled with the lack of buyers due to economic uncertainty that will bring the prices down, not just in DVC, but in many sectors. I don’t think the closure of the parks is that significant. Even if the parks opened tomorrow, that does not change the likelihood that prices will slide. It’s the economy in general that is going to bite everyone.

 

[Jhoyer5150]

Wow that DVC resale article is slanted talking about prices going back up. Some of the price points look at little fishy too - BLT going up $4 to $144, I've seen more sub-$130 contracts for BLT in the last month than the prior 11 combined. This is just the start. Moreover, nothing's opening back up, not anytime soon anyways. Shanghai and HK closed in January, they still have no date. WDW is far more complex and is two months behind. And by reopen, let's be clear: I'm talking about the parks, the MK

There is no more ROFR anymore - it's gone. Zero in April. Will be zero in May and June too (other than for Riviera maybe). There is no safety net. And no usable product. I don't see a long line gathering to buy in NOW. Certainly nobody just getting back from a WDW trip because there haven't been any the last two months. Unemployment report comes out Friday and will be >15%. Remember we peaked at 10.4 in 2009 - how were DVC prices back then? Prices need to go lower, significantly lower, and they will. Sellers are anchor-biased to higher prices and agents/sites have every reason to keep them close to the line, but a -20% price reduction wouldn't shock me at all. There's no new demand. There will be new sellers.

 

[Jason_79]

Wow that DVC resale article is slanted talking about prices going back up. Some of the price points look at little fishy too - BLT going up $4 to $144, I've seen more sub-$130 contracts for BLT in the last month than the prior 11 combined. This is just the start. Moreover, nothing's opening back up, not anytime soon anyways. Shanghai and HK closed in January, they still have no date. WDW is far more complex and is two months behind. And by reopen, let's be clear: I'm talking about the parks, the MK

There is no more ROFR anymore - it's gone. Zero in April. Will be zero in May and June too (other than for Riviera maybe). There is no safety net. And no usable product. I don't see a long line gathering to buy in NOW. Certainly nobody just getting back from a WDW trip because there haven't been any the last two months. Unemployment report comes out Friday and will be >15%. Remember we peaked at 10.4 in 2009 - how were DVC prices back then? Prices need to go lower, significantly lower, and they will. Sellers are anchor-biased to higher prices and agents/sites have every reason to keep them close to the line, but a -20% price reduction wouldn't shock me at all. There's no new demand. There will be new sellers.

In line with what you were mentioning with how the article is a little slanted, I received the following reply from an offer I put in on a 100 Point Saratoga contract on Friday from the same site:

The Seller will not go lower than $99/point and he wasn't even going to give a counter offer because it was way too low.
This is a Buyer's market but nothing is going 20% off list price. Sales are quite brisk:
2020: 1,274 contracts listed for sale and 1,247 sold through April (97.9%)
We are averaging $1.3 million /wk in sales since the Covid!

To me this is clearly a tactic from the broker trying to keep prices/commissions high for as long as possible, which I completely understand. However it is only a matter of time before the face the reality that prices will be dropping. Furthermore, I don't think the statistics in the reply I received take into account the full affect of COVID on the resale product.

 

[CastAStone]

They are absolutely right though that the number of contracts listed on their site has dropped substantially over the last 30 days. I've been tracking it. Supply is tightening, not loosening.

I think people really, really don't want to make big financial decisions of any kind with this much uncertainty, until they are forced to. Right now it's an untapped asset that an owner can liquidate if necessary, like a 401K, or an IRA, or a house.

 

[eMoneyBug]

They are absolutely right though that the number of contracts listed on their site has dropped substantially over the last 30 days. I've been tracking it. Supply is tightening, not loosening.

I think people really, really don't want to make big financial decisions of any kind with this much uncertainty, until they are forced to. Right now it's an untapped asset that an owner can liquidate if necessary, like a 401K, or an IRA, or a house.

...speaking of 401K and IRA accounts, I reviewed mine yesterday, they've been hit with 20-40% drops just in the past few months, wiped away gains of several years it feels like