News on Annual Passes

[Pinnochio]

I will use my DVC points to stay at Disney but I will be buying an AP for Universal and Sea World and spending my money there until Disney gets their mind right

Exactly...I have a trip planned for a week in December at my home resort (BWV)....for the 1st time in 30 years of trips (over 60) i won't be going to any Disney parks....Universal is having a buy 2 days get two free sale right now.... never been there before...., I'll let you all know how it works out....

 

[clarker99]

The number 1 complaint pre-covid was that the parks were too busy. They need to add capacity to the 4 parks, esp HS and AK. Bringing back AP’s is like putting the cart before the horse.

No added capacity is on the horizon means AP’s are not coming anytime soon. Dis knows their demand outstrips supply. If demand wanes they will just let current AP’s book more days or MORE likely they will use the discounts lever to draw in families.

 

[TraderStitch]

Not surprised at that. Real estate response to something like this is much slower. Right now peeps are looking for real estate type investments that are in markets unlikely to suffer sudden value drops as they pull money from stocks.

Anyone taking money from stocks at this point is making a huge mistake. The markets will come back like they always have, even stronger.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

Anyone taking money from stocks at this point is making a huge mistake. The markets will come back like they always have, even stronger.

That may be but it is far from my areas of interest or expertise.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

The number 1 complaint pre-covid was that the parks were too busy. They need to add capacity to the 4 parks, esp HS and AK. Bringing back AP’s is like putting the cart before the horse.

No added capacity is on the horizon means AP’s are not coming anytime soon. Dis knows their demand outstrips supply. If demand wanes they will just let current AP’s book more days or MORE likely they will use the discounts lever to draw in families.

My response pertains to WDW.

Disney chose to resolve that complaint by putting an attendance cap on the parks that is now 17% below what the attendance was in 2019. Here are the crowd limits in order from the highest.
Fire Marshall Cap
Historical Attendance 2019
Current Attendance Cap at 17% below Historical Attendance Cap

Mr. Chapek said they will not bend on the current attendance cap. His information, which he believes, is that with the 17% lower attendance cap, they are getting a better park experience for guests. The guests that are there are spending more money per person than the 2019 crowd levels. Therefore there is more profit for Disney with the Current Attendance Cap. There is no debate. He believes it and he said he will not bend on that. Issue over.

So far, demand outstrips supply. Historically in 2019, the passholder component of the crowd was 34%. Historically, they did not cap the number of annual passes distributed; now they do. Seventeen percent crowd reduction coincidentally matches 1/2 of the number of passholders attending in 2019. Currently the sales of new annual passes has been stopped. Chapek said they have capped the number of annual passes distributed and this is a new thing. Disney's CFO, McCarthy has stated they will use other levers to increase the demand if it wanes. She did not include opening sales of additional, new annual passes. So, the current reduction in crowd capacity likely came entirely (or almost entirely) from the simultaneous reduction in annual pass sales. Logically, it appears to be a reasonable assumption that Disney cut the number of annual passes distributed in half and capped it there.

It is not their intent to raise the cap on annual pass sales if demand starts to wane. They will try other methods of increasing attendance first. In the recent quarterly income reports to shareholders, Disney has stated their increased profit from the parks was also due to a lack of discounted tickets. Lately, we have seen very little ticket discounting. The discounts have pertained more to merchandise and food. The exception is the UK discount program for fall/winter 2022. However, the significant changes in the rate of exchange may have influenced that decision.

Since it is unlikely they will raise the cap on the number of annual passes distributed, the only possible replenishment is when current passholders do not renew. Disney will not re-open new sales of annual passes until they have sufficient numbers to sustain new sales for a reasonable sales period. They know they have about 400,000 to 500,000 (my estimate from number crunching) people waiting for new sales. Disney also has access to data showing how many annual passes they sold per day when sales were open from September 8, 2021 to November 21, 2021. Apparently they don't have enough yet, but we do not know how close they are.

Many former passholders were caught out without annual passes. Disney knows that. So far, Disney has elected not to create special annual pass distributions rules for DVC owners or other groups. New pass sales for Florida residents are kept to the Pixie pass, a no holiday and weekday only pass. It appears the cap on annual passes distributed is a pretty firm cap. It does mean some former passholders are likely to give up and leave. Some will sell DVDs. Others will drastically change their attendance. Others will get lucky when new annual pass sales open again. New pricing, which appears all but inevitable, may cause a lot of existing as well as waiting passholders to turn away. We will see.

 

[clarker99]

My response pertains to WDW.

Disney chose to resolve that complaint by putting an attendance cap on the parks that is now 17% below what the attendance was in 2019. Here are the crowd limits in order from the highest.
Fire Marshall Cap
Historical Attendance 2019
Current Attendance Cap at 17% below Historical Attendance Cap

Mr. Chapel said they will not bend on the current attendance cap. His information, which he believes, is that with the 17% lower attendance cap, they are getting a better park experience for guests. The guests that are there are spending more money per person than the 2019 crowd levels. Therefore there is more profit for Disney with the Current Attendance Cap. There is no debate. He believes it and he said he will not bend on that. Issue over.

So far, demand outstrips supply. Historically in 2019, the passholder component of the crowd was 34%. Historically, they did not cap the number of annual passes distributed; now they do. Seventeen percent crowd reduction coincidentally matches 1/2 of the number of passholders attending in 2019. Currently the sales of new annual passes has been stopped. Chapek said they have capped the number of annual passes distributed and this is a new thing. Disney's CFO, McCarthy has stated they will use other levers to increase the demand if it wanes. She did not include opening sales of additional, new annual passes. So, the current reduction in crowd capacity likely came entirely (or almost entirely) from the simultaneous reduction in annual pass sales. Logically, it appears to be a reasonable assumption that Disney cut the number of annual passes distributed in half and capped it there.

It is not their intent to raise the cap on annual pass sales if demand starts to wane. They will try other methods of increasing attendance first. In the recent quarterly income reports to shareholders, Disney has stated their increased profit from the parks was also due to a lack of discounted tickets. Lately, we have seen very little ticket discounting. The discounts have pertained more to merchandise and food. The exception is the UK discount program for fall/winter 2022. However, the significant changes in the rate of exchange may have influenced that decision.

Since it is unlikely they will raise the cap on the number of annual passes distributed, the only possible replenishment is when current passholders do not renew. Disney will not re-open new sales of annual passes until they have sufficient numbers to sustain new sales for a reasonable sales period. They know they have about 400,000 to 500,000 (my estimate from number crunching) people waiting for new sales. Disney also has access to data showing how many annual passes they sold per day when sales were open from September 8, 2021 to November 21, 2021. Apparently they don't have enough yet, but we do not know how close they are.

Many former passholders were caught out without annual passes. Disney knows that. So far, Disney has elected not to create special annual pass distributions rules for DVC owners or other groups. New pass sales for Florida residents are kept to weekend passes. It appears the cap on annual passes distributed is a pretty firm cap. It does mean some former passholders are likely to give up and leave. Some will sell DVDs. Others will drastically change their attendance. Others will get lucky when new annual pass sales open again. New pricing, which appears all but inevitable, may cause a lot of existing as well as waiting passholders to turn away. We will see.

Isnt this what I said but in less words? It is hard for people to understand but Disney has made the decision and understands they will lose customers, possibly even their most loyal. They want you to come to WDW less or pay market rates to go to the parks more.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

Deleted duplicate response due to tech glitch.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

Deleted duplicate response due to tech glitch.

 

[rdaky]

But what is a "Superfan" really? Yes, it's probably the annual passholder or the family who comes once a year. Their voices are the loudest about what they want, changes they don't like, things they believe they deserve, etc. Sometimes the Superfan doesn't equal the dollar signs. Just because someone loves Disney and comes 3x per year, does not mean that they're spending more than the average family coming for a once or twice in a lifetime visit. That family is paying full price for their souvenirs and possibly full price for their room. No discounts table service. That family isn't whining at the guest experience umbrella about how much better things used to be or yelling at a cast member because they are carrying around an AP card that has 2020 as a date and the cast member can't honor that discount. If there is no actual monetary value to having more annual pass holders, there is no point in increasing the numbers of passes sold. I have an annual pass. And I'm local. And I know a lot of cast members. A lot of annual pass holders are entitled and rude to cast members. Some are absolutely horrible. Just because they LOVE Disney, doesn't always mean they're the best guests for the overall experience. You get a grouchy cast member? Chances are, that cast member has already been chewed out multiple times that day by an annual passholder. And again, I'm saying this as an annual passholder.

Just a side rant. You can take it as Disney not placing value on annual pass holders, but in the end, annual pass holders probably aren't the ones giving back to Disney as much as the average family from Indiana. Especially not financially and probably not with a lot of the negative attitudes, either. If Disney sees value in it, they'll bring them back. Until then, they aren't hurting by not having AP sales.

 

[aka Charles]

The Future of Annual Passes
(As I see it)

Disney is going to re-imagine and redesign the whole Annual Pass program for both Disneyland and Walt Disney World.

The timing of when they launch the new programs will be dependent on two main items;
1. How long they can keep the park demand/revenue at the levels they deem acceptable.
(As long as park revenue is strong, they are in no hurry)
2. What the outcome of the current litigation ends up being.
(It would be foolish to implement a new program, only to scrap it months later because of upcoming court rulings)

I honestly do not see this happening until mid 2024, or even 2025.
Until then, they will open limited annual pass sales, under the current program, for brief times, in order to keep the park revenue where they want, and to limit complaints from turning into more lawsuits.

The new Annual Pass programs may include the following;

1. Three to five levels of passes.

Both programs currently have four levels of passes, and it's not clear if Disney would prefer to simplify the programs by going down to three levels, or try to fine tune each program with a fifth level.

1. Set limits on the number of active passes at each level.

Disney will announce that there will be a limit for the number of active passes at each level, and that they have the right to suspend sales of any pass level when its limit is reached.
I doubt that Disney will ever release the actual limit numbers, so they will be able to start and stop sales on each pass level as they deem necessary.

1. The highest-level pass will not be unlimited and will have blackout dates.

It is most likely that the perks, benefits, and blackout dates of the highest-level passes in the new programs will be closer to what the current Sorcerer Pass and Believe Key are, rather than what the current Incredi-Pass and Inspire Key are, and definitely not like the Dream Key.

1. The Park Reservation system will be an integrated part of the new Annual Pass programs.

However, the limits of the park reservation system may be affected by the court rulings.

1. Pricing will, of course, be higher across the board.

Disney will be able to say that limited numbers and high demand are the reason.
They may imply that it is also because of the court rulings.

1. Disney will still offer “discounts” on renewals.

But don’t be fooled, as these are not actually discounts.
The renewal rates are the actual prices Disney wants to charge for the passes.
The “Full Price” is really the actual price, plus a surcharge to buy into the program.

In the end, I don’t think any guests are going to be “happy” with the new programs.
But most will be happy to have access to some form of an Annual Pass program, rather than none at all.
Disney understands that, and knows that in time it will become the new norm.

 

[aka Charles]

The Future of Annual Passes
(As I see it)

Disney is going to re-imagine and redesign the whole Annual Pass program for both Disneyland and Walt Disney World.

The timing of when they launch the new programs will be dependent on two main items;
1. How long they can keep the park demand/revenue at the levels they deem acceptable.
(As long as park revenue is strong, they are in no hurry)
2. What the outcome of the current litigation ends up being.
(It would be foolish to implement a new program, only to scrap it months later because of upcoming court rulings)

I honestly do not see this happening until mid 2024, or even 2025.
Until then, they will open limited annual pass sales, under the current program, for brief times, in order to keep the park revenue where they want, and to limit complaints from turning into more lawsuits.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The new Annual Pass programs may include the following;

1. Three to five levels of passes.
Both programs currently have four levels of passes, and it's not clear if Disney would prefer to simplify the programs by going down to three levels, or try to fine tune each program with a fifth level.

2. Set limits on the number of active passes at each level.
Disney will announce that there will be a limit for the number of active passes at each level, and that they have the right to suspend sales of any pass level when its limit is reached.
I doubt that Disney will ever release the actual limit numbers, so they will be able to start and stop sales on each pass level as they deem necessary.

3. The highest-level pass will not be unlimited and will have blackout dates.
It is most likely that the perks, benefits, and blackout dates of the highest-level passes in the new programs will be closer to what the current Sorcerer Pass and Believe Key are, rather than what the current Incredi-Pass and Inspire Key are, and definitely not like the Dream Key.

4. The Park Reservation system will be an integrated part of the new Annual Pass programs.
However, the limits of the park reservation system may be affected by the court rulings.

5. Pricing will, of course, be higher across the board.
Disney will be able to say that limited numbers and high demand are the reason.
They may imply that it is also because of the court rulings.

6. Disney will still offer “discounts” on renewals.
But don’t be fooled, as these are not actually discounts.
The renewal rates are the actual prices Disney wants to charge for the passes.
The “Full Price” is really the actual price, plus a surcharge to buy into the program.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In the end, I don’t think any guests are going to be “happy” with the new programs.
But most will be happy to have access to some form of an Annual Pass program, rather than none at all.
Disney understands that, and knows that in time it will become the new norm.
.

 

[TraderStitch]

Don't forget current prices will be blown out of the water lol

 

[SL6827]

So why is Disney still offering the Pixie Pass? Tax reason or not or what?

 

[RivShore]

If demand wanes they will just let current AP’s book more days

But we have almost always seen reservations available for AP's over the last year. What ever restictions they have on AP attendance it has not been exceeded except on just a few holiday weekends.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

So why is Disney still offering the Pixie Pass? Tax reason or not or what?

Not for tax reasons. It never was related to tax reasons. Some people picked that idea up in the discussion of the Reedy Creek Improvement District.
IF it was ever the result of mitigation of impacts of development resulting from Disney's application to develop the land, it would have been an "environmental impact mitigation." It would have been imposed by an environmental agency, not by Reedy Creek Improvement District. Basically, Reedy Creek is like the utility company. An environmental agency is federal, state or county government -- not a utility company. Taxes are levied by governments, but for different reasons -- to support government spending. Taxes are not imposed to mitigate environmental damage due to development of land.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

Isnt this what I said but in less words? It is hard for people to understand but Disney has made the decision and understands they will lose customers, possibly even their most loyal. They want you to come to WDW less or pay market rates to go to the parks more.

No. We said two different things entirely. I highlighted a paradigm shift in the nature of the new annual passes. Disney put a limit on the number of passes sold. They want to control the mix of ticketed guests and passholders. That limit on annual passes is currently sold out. This is the new normal.

You highlighted an older argument people have made that the reason for stopping sales was park crowding. If they just did things like hired more cast members, added attractions, got crowd eating attractions up and running etc, they would have more capacity.

They lowered park capacity by 17% from 2019 crowd levels. In 2019, the passholder component of the crowds was about 34% So, that is about half the number of annual passes..

In your post, the halt on sales would be temporary. As soon as they fixed the crowding problem they would open sales of annual passes to unlimited numbers and sell they 365 days a year.

With the paradigm shift, they are now selling only a fixed number. This is the new normal. That old situation with 2019 crowd levels is never coming back. Lowering the percentage of passholders is the new normal. Therefore, sales will stop, wait until non-renewals replenish the number, and then start for a short time. When those are sold, sales stop again.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

But we have almost always seen reservations available for AP's over the last year. What ever restictions they have on AP attendance it has not been exceeded except on just a few holiday weekends.

Not so. Restrictions are not just about park reservation availability. Think about those who are limited to 3 to 5 park reservation holds, as an example. Block-out dates are a restriction. New Pixie passes are heavily restricted.

 

[RivShore]

So why is Disney still offering the Pixie Pass? Tax reason or not or what?

I think on this or the other thread it was said it has nothing to due with a tax reason. Maybe they just feel weekday attendance can use a boost?

 

[SL6827]

I think on this or the other thread it was said it has nothing to due with a tax reason. Maybe they just feel weekday attendance can use a boost?

Interesting. If I was a Fla resident, that is the only time I would want to go anyways.

 

[cm8]

So why is Disney still offering the Pixie Pass? Tax reason or not or what?

My thoughts as to why they are still selling the PP is to still generate some type of revenue during the week to help prop up their numbers. Let’s be real, if WDW wanted to stop all sales including Locals, they would have done so. I don’t think most of the local WDW AP people treat the parks like a playground but if and when they do, they will be on the same receiving end of some heavily blacked out passes just like Disneyland.

It is my hope that Disney will keep the Incredipass without blackouts for those of us who currently pay for them. If hardly anyone uses them (as they claim because of holidays and such), it shouldn’t be an issue.