True the Dream class being tied to PC initially was due to the contract. This was so the port would forgive the 400000 fine that DCL was facing for missing out on port calls at PC and also so the port would pay the lions share of the upgrades at the port. That part of the contract stipulated by name for only 5 years and ran out in 16 for the Dream and 17 for the Fantasy. From March of 17 the contract reads at least 2 ships with a minimum of 150 sailings per year. Other wise they get fined again.
DCL tried Europe, came home, fine tuned, went back 2 or 3 years later, and over time, now go over every year. Its part of what got them in trouble with the port.
They did the same thing with California, which added to the port fine. They went over, went back 2years later, now expanded into Alaska.Now the Wonder Lives at least part time in Alaska. The thing is, is that the Wonder was specifically modified for Alaska, no only enclosing Outlook but other modifications required to sail up there.
DCL has been trying out different ports, in the off seasons when the Magic and Wonder aren't in Europe and Alaska. Magic has done several years ( at least 2 if not more) in NYC since the Dream class arrived, doing northerly Nova Scotia trips,and south bound trips stopping in PC andother places along the way. Wonder has been doing the same thing. Wonder has done 3 southern trips out of San Juan, doing different islands in the ABCs, and has spent time in Miami, and Galveston. Magic has also left out of SJ if Im not mistaken, and the Fantasy did a trip the relate last year I think. I know she did at least 1 if not 2 trips to SJ. So yes, DCL is trying different ports and different routes.
The Magic and the Wonder have both spent time at PC as the 3rd ship. (They both have been in Galveston also )Most notably this year. The Wonder did 3/4s that the Dream was doing, along with the Dream and the Fantasy stayed on the alternating 7s. Magics in Miami for a little bit. Friend of ours is on her right now. Last year I think the Magic was the 3rd ship, and was doing 7s with the Fantasy, except 1 did easts the other wests before mixing things up. So yes, DCL is testing different things here in FL and the Caribbean. In my opinion not nearly as soon as they should have, or routes they should be trying but they are putting ships indifferent places. Looking at the cruise industry as a whole, and the patterns, DCL is almost always behind the other lines. A lack of ships has handicapped them.
The trend for any given line, trying something out and Ill use Baltimore as a neutral port is this. First they send a smaller ship, usually 1 of the older ones to gauge interest so to speak. This way, the ship is usually paid off, and its easier to fill a ship with 800 cabins vs a ship with 1500. If that particular route works,and the ship is sailing at a given percentage, they move a slightly larger ship in and bump the smaller ship some where else. And the process goes on,either swapping ships or adding ships. Which is the trend out of PC. RC and Carnival started with 1, then 2, and now either have 3, or the worlds largest ship and ship 2 sizes down. I can count on 1 hand and probably have fingers to spare, the number of times that any line has sent brand new ships to try out brand new ports and routes. I can only think of 2 examples off hand, because it simply doesn't happen.
To date, DCL has shown no real interest in going back to Hawaii, or going over to Asia. Im not saying that they'll never go over there, it may be farther down the list then whats staring them in the face.
The signs are there.
Heres 1 more thing to take into consideration on the new ships homeports. The new ships are lng and theres only a handful of ports worldwide that can accommodate them. East coast I think there is 3 ports. Closest is Jacksonville. Its 1 thing to berth a ship in a port, its a different story if the port cant fuel them. PC is adding infrastructure to handle lng ships and expects to be done by 2021 I believe.
Those are excellent observations - I haven't been following the ships that closely. At least their histories. That being said, I don't see Disney committing too much more to the Caribbeans for a number of reasons (beyond the obvious super saturation).
1. DCL's marketing startegy is pretty straightforward. Get families into cruising with a three- or four-nighter aboard Dream out of PC. (Get them while they are at the parks.) Move them up to a 7-nighter in Fantasy or another longer itinerary in the Caribbeans - and then get them to splurge on the itineraries with fat profits (Alaska + Europe). Most North American families won't start their DCL cruising in Alaska or Europe (unless accompanying someone else), but the lifetime value of a DCL cruiser climbs astronomically once you can get them out of the Caribbeans.
2. The funnel. If you have too many low-margin itineraries, you will have people hooked on to cruising, but they will then flee to other cruise lines for better itineraries. You want them to stay with you when the real spending comes. (You want to grow - no pun - with your cruising families.) Unlike other cruise lines, DCL doesn't have millennial vs experience brands - so the segmentation must come from the cruising experience itself.
3. Let's do the numbers. Let's calculate the fares of a verandah room with four occupants for the combined months of July and August 2019. I would use the 2018 numbers, but several Wonder verandahs are sold out for those dates.
Disney Fantasy: $4,340 + $9,841 + $8,662 + $6,760 + $9,757 + $9,964 + $8,020 + $5,369 + $13,523 = $76,236
Disney Wonder: $10,496 + $14,732 + $14,539 + $14,217 + $13,755 + $12,817 + $11,826 + $11,099 + $18,184 = $121,665
Now, let's look at the availability in July and August 2018. Categories include inside, oceanview, verandah, and concierge.
Disney Fantasy: Out of 4 categories x 9 sailings, 5 are sold out.
Disney Wonder: Out of 4 categories x 9 sailings, 16 are sold out.
So - DCL charges ~60% more on Wonder, yet four times as many Wonder sailings are sold out. That's a staggering demand/supply imbalance. (Caveat: Fantasy has ~42% more rooms - but also a disproportionately higher build cost.)
4. There is nothing to 'try out' any more in Europe and Alaska. These are established cruise markets. Princess, for example, will have nearly a dozen ships deployed in Alaska next year. The modifications required are trivial compared to the profits. Yes, DCL is not a trend maker, but going to Alaska and Europe in 2022 is a much belated trend
following.
5. Disney has shown tremendous interest in Asia. It now has three - not one or two but three - theme parks in Asia Pacific. And they are ringing in big numbers. Disney just need to push through another 4 or 5 years of movies - just in time for the last of the new ships to roll out.
6. Completely agreed about the LNG ports - but most of the fully developed LNG ports are currently in Europe. Spain (such as in Barcelona) is investing in LNG fueling capacity, and Germany is way ahead in that respect.
