New policy for reservations based on check IN date

[bookwormde]

Tjkraz

With you request for specifics I took a little time to check up on one of my areas of concern, the OKW GV issue.

The good news I that for most of the times I want to go I will still have reasonable odds, if not as good as before.

It was amazing how many members bought or added on at OKW for the GVs.

Also interesting how may signatures from this thread showed up on both sides of the discussion.



Here are some links where members could not get OKW GV nights at the 11 and 7-month marks. I even found a post by you about the need to book quickly for this class

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=516464&page=0&highlight=OKW+GV

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=499273&page=0&highlight=OKW GV


tjkraz DVC Owner SSR Join Date: Feb 2002Location: OhioPosts: 7,688 For holiday periods and early December, the GVs are likely booked within a few days of the 11 month window. Other times of the year I've actually read posts from people who said they got a GV at 7 months. Those posts are rare, but it has happened.If your plans are set, book as early as possible and you won't risk disappointment.

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?p=24445416#post24445416&highlight=OkW GV

11 month

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=499273&page=0&highlight=OKW GV

Actually, the first two weeks of December are usually the most difficult. I have called at 10:00am at eleven months out with no availability.
__________________
"Trust me, your criticisms have fallen on deaf, stone deaf, boulder deaf ears".
-Rich Hyams


http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?p=8857893#post8857893&highlight=OkW GV 11

I would have to say not very goood at all. I tried to book a GV one time calling on the first day of 11 month window, and had no luck. They are typcally booked day by day at the 11 month Window.



http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?p=15064091#post15064091&highlight=OKW GV






7 month

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=413905&page=0&highlight=OKW+GV

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?p=19153439#post19153439&highlight=OKW GV

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=513263&page=0&highlight=OKW GV

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?p=12238317#post12238317&highlight=OKW GV

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?p=13865706#post13865706&highlight=OkW GV







http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=561020&page=0&highlight=OKW+GV


And a quote from another resort I stumbles upon

(2/30/07) I tried to get a GV one year at BWV, calling 11 mos out, day by day, starting dialing a few minutes before 9am, and still could not get all the days I needed. It was crazy!


bookwormde

 

[jdg345]

Hmm, I thought the first two weeks of December was a peak DVC time, especially for VWL?

So, in your view, the DVC reservation system should be optimized for just those very few high-demand periods and not for the rest of the year? In other words, it doesn't matter how cumbersome or difficult it becomes year round for most DVC members just as long as the system is the best for the very few high-demand periods? Why penalize most DVC members?

I don't agree. The new system benefits more DVC members than the old system did.

For those that travel at peak times, I still submit that I would rather just have to make one call and either get or not get my reservation, rather than booking DBD and not getting one or two days.

How does it benefit more members? If there is only a need to call DBD for the peak/special areas, then those folks could just call based on departure date and be fine as well, no?

 

[jdg345]

There is no way to "guarantee" a reservation under either system.

No, as we are all aware, the folks who are upset with the new policy are going to write DVC. But it is less likely that the folks who are pleased with the new policy are going to write DVC and congratulate them. Thus, the number of complaints versus the number of thank yous is not an accurate data point concerning overall member satisfaction with the new policy.

Again, this goes both ways though. How many folks who were successful with DBD made sure to write letters and call in to give their appreciation to DVC for allowing them to book DBD? Or was it more a case that someone called at 11 months of departure, were told things were sold out and the CM suggested DBD calling. The caller then gets upset because they did not know about DBD so they complain about it.

 

[tjkraz]

How does it benefit more members? If there is only a need to call DBD for the peak/special areas, then those folks could just call based on departure date and be fine as well, no?

How does it benefit more members? Quite simple:

1. If we agree there are some people who may be disadvantaged by the new system, it's a fundamental truth that an equal number of people have benefited from it.

2. All of the people who were calling DBD at 11 months unnecessarily will not have to do so. And given the sparsity of comments from those blocked when calling DBD, this is quite a large volume of members.

We're back to the FUD driving the machine, again. While it takes a great deal of searching to find posts from anyone who couldn't get a room booking DBD, you couldn't swing a proverbial bat without finding a post that advocates DBD bookings. Now there is no longer a need to even mention such an approach.

 

[jdg345]

I completely agree with Chloe.

As Dean restated a couple pages ago, the alternative is a system which is also imperfect...a system where multiple members will have their desires go unfulfilled.

If day-by-day bookings are used and demand exceeds capacity, this is exactly what could happen:

Three members call day-by-day to book Sun to Thurs in BWV Standard View.

Member "A" gets Sunday and Wednesday. All other days full by the time he gets thru.

Member "B" gets Monday and Thursday.

Member "C" gets Tuesday.

None of the members come away satisfied with what they were able to obtain. All have incomplete vacations and have to decide when/where/how they will deal with the situation.

Ahhh ... but it is their CHOICE ... Member "C" may decide they just don't care that much about the room, and book somewhere else which opens up that room to one of the other members. Or, Member "C" may decide that, to them, moving is not an issue because they *really* want it. If they are willing to move around to get that view for one night, then more power to them. It was their choice, they wanted it. You might not want to move, so you'd give up the dates and book somewhere else. But it's still a CHOICE. The new system is all or nothing, the old system gave the possibilty of small victories.

Under the new policy, one member will have his entire vacation while the others are left to make alternative arrangements. Perhaps they will decide to book Preferred View or change their dates slightly. However you slice it, overall satisfaction can only go up.

The same can be said for the DBD system. Those with only a day or two or not wanting to move would have to make alternative arrangements. Perhaps they will decide to book a Preferred View or change their dates slightly. It's possible that overall satisfaction can go down, or remain the same as now it's just a different group of people complaining.

And despite what has been implied, "the system" didn't decide who would get a room...it was still left to the member that called first.

Ahhh ... right, so it was up to the member that wanted it bad enough that they called first and went through the extra effort. Now, it's just about whoever is arriving first. Is that better?

A few posts ago you said this: "if I did DBD I would likely be able to get a reservation for a busy travel period. If I didn't there would be a chance that I would not." As your quote illustrates, neither system is going to guarantee success. Both systems leave open the possibility for members to not get what they want.

DBD allows for partial success and gives the member the choice. The new system does not.

One of the problems I see with this discussion is that most portray themselves as being victimized by the new system while upholding day-by-day as a flawless approach. We can't have it both ways. If demand were as high as some suggest, even those who book day-by-day would find themselves unsuccessful at times.

And I agree that DBD isn't a guarantee to get what you wanted, but you were GUARANTEED that your room(s) were available on the morning of the day you called. With the new system, that is absolutely not the case.

 

[chloe]

Assuming this policy will cut down on DBD calls and forced mid trip moves… this might be a good thing for the majority of DVC owners.

The current system was a drain on MS, mousekeeping, and dues. Given the ever growing size of DVC, the current system had to change in some form; it was not sustainable or cost effective.

Just consider the common trip where a member calls DBD and then is forced move mid trip: They’re certainly not happy about needing to change rooms. Folks waiting for MS are not happy. And now Mousekeeping needs to ready two rooms instead of one. Not to mention the poor soul waiting in the lobby at 4:00 pm for their room….


The flexibility of DVC has a tangible cost throughout the system from MS to Mousekeeping and I’m not convinced that reigning in the flexibility a tad bit is all bad.

I know we love to bash Disney for putting cost above member satisfaction, but maybe they are right this time. I’m sure that ideally Disney would love to go to a 7 day Saturday-Saturday stay (just imagine the cost savings).

 

[jdg345]

I think, for 99% of the cases, that all members will have an equal chance to book. The issue is the other 1% (the few, very high demand periods like Christmas and NYE). Some are suggesting that members will be unable to get what they want simply because a few have earlier booking access to overlapping dates. As of now, that is merely a hypothesis since there is no hard eveidence to support that. I guess we'll all find out together.

Then you would also agree that, for 99% of the cases, booking on departure date would give all members an equal chance to book as well?

To be clear, it seems to me your stance here is that both systems (full arrival/departure), for 99% of the cases, would be successful. It's just that the new system could cut down on call volumes?

 

[tjkraz]

Tjkraz

With you request for specifics I took a little time to check up on one of my areas of concern, the OKW GV issue.

The good news I that for most of the times I want to go I will still have reasonable odds, if not as good as before.

It was amazing how many members bought or added on at OKW for the GVs.

Also interesting how may signatures from this thread showed up on both sides of the discussion.



Here are some links where members could not get OKW GV nights at the 11 and 7-month marks. I even found a post by you about the need to book quickly for this class

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=516464&page=0&highlight=OKW+GV

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=499273&page=0&highlight=OKW GV


tjkraz DVC Owner SSR Join Date: Feb 2002Location: OhioPosts: 7,688 For holiday periods and early December, the GVs are likely booked within a few days of the 11 month window. Other times of the year I've actually read posts from people who said they got a GV at 7 months. Those posts are rare, but it has happened.If your plans are set, book as early as possible and you won't risk disappointment.

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?p=24445416#post24445416&highlight=OkW GV

11 month

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=499273&page=0&highlight=OKW GV

Actually, the first two weeks of December are usually the most difficult. I have called at 10:00am at eleven months out with no availability.
__________________
"Trust me, your criticisms have fallen on deaf, stone deaf, boulder deaf ears".
-Rich Hyams


http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?p=8857893#post8857893&highlight=OkW GV 11

I would have to say not very goood at all. I tried to book a GV one time calling on the first day of 11 month window, and had no luck. They are typcally booked day by day at the 11 month Window.



http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?p=15064091#post15064091&highlight=OKW GV






7 month

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=413905&page=0&highlight=OKW+GV

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?p=19153439#post19153439&highlight=OKW GV

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=513263&page=0&highlight=OKW GV

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?p=12238317#post12238317&highlight=OKW GV

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?p=13865706#post13865706&highlight=OkW GV







http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=561020&page=0&highlight=OKW+GV


And a quote from another resort I stumbles upon

(2/30/07) I tried to get a GV one year at BWV, calling 11 mos out, day by day, starting dialing a few minutes before 9am, and still could not get all the days I needed. It was crazy!


bookwormde

Interesting post.

To address what I think are the issues presented here:

1. Under the old rules, advocating DBD bookings was viewed as the safest approach for getting an OKW GV around the holidays. Do I think members will have 100% success under the new system? No, of course not. But as DVC Mike said a few pages ago, I don't believe that the system should be optimized for the few high demand / low supply scenarios that exist. There is no perfect solution for those cases.

2. Seven month bookings are irrelevant to me. Every member buying into DVC should know right up front that there are no guarantees regarding availability at 7 months.

3. As for the poster who tried booking a BWV GV 11 months out, day by day, that perfectly illustrates my position on these changes. Does she sound like she was satisfied with DBD bookings? She wasted time on the telephone, ultimately couldn't get what she wanted and had to make other arrangements.

We can spend another 2000 posts calling it "fair", but the bottom line is she didn't get what she wanted! In the process she wasted MS resources and her own time. And she may have kept another member from getting his/her consecutive nights in the GV until she decided to throw in the towel and reschedule. I hope that's not supposed to be a shining example of the best system DVC has to offer!!!

 

[jdg345]

I'd be shocked if many members agreed with that. Let's take AKV Concierge, for example. Booking DBD there is a high likelihood that a member would be completely unable to string together 7-night trip. With the new system, the member will not be successful every time out, but when he is successful the entire trip is set in one phone call.

I don't see how anyone could argue that the DBD system is a benefit here.

Again, I think AKV Concierge is a tough example to use because there are only like a half dozen rooms.

That said, let's take some random 'out of the air' numbers:
Chances to Book Partial Stay under DBD: 1:10
Chances to Book Full Stay under DBD: 1:50
Chances to Book Full Stay Under New System: 1:100

Clearly, the numbers I'm using have no basis, but I believe that the overall 'gist' is correct. Basically, it was easier to get some days than all days under the DBD system. So yes, the new system makes it easier to get all the days, if you can get your first day. Since it was tough to just get one day DBD when you had access to all inventory, now you're competing with those who booked up to a week before you, so you're competing for even less rooms. I think it's pretty easy to see that getting one day (and the subsequent days) under the new system is far less likely than getting a partial stay DBD.

So what would people prefer? A very very very small chance to get all 7 days, or a much better chance at getting some of the days and moving around? I don't know, I guess it all depends on how important those views and amenities are to them. With the old system, those that *really* wanted it were typically rewarded with what they got. Now those that might not want it as badly are being rewarded with the same.

 

[jdg345]

How does it benefit more members? Quite simple:

1. If we agree there are some people who may be disadvantaged by the new system, it's a fundamental truth that an equal number of people have benefited from it.

That's not necessarily the case. There are people 'in the middle' that may not have been advantaged/disadvantaged under the old system who are now being disadvantaged. We cannot assume that just because 5 people are getting an advantage now, that 5 different people are being disadvantaged. It's not necessarily a zero sum game.

2. All of the people who were calling DBD at 11 months unnecessarily will not have to do so. And given the sparsity of comments from those blocked when calling DBD, this is quite a large volume of members.

These are just assumptions though. Do we know how many of those people calling DBD before aren't just going to walk their reservation a week or more in advance?

We're back to the FUD driving the machine, again. While it takes a great deal of searching to find posts from anyone who couldn't get a room booking DBD, you couldn't swing a proverbial bat without finding a post that advocates DBD bookings. Now there is no longer a need to even mention such an approach.

Bookworm found a few posts were people did not get what they wanted DBD, but I am sure you can find more posts advocating DBD than those that failed DBD. How many posts can we find where people were unable at 11 months of departure? I'm sure there are some there to consider. Let's also not forget that instead of people mentioning DBD as an approach, people will now just mention folks should call earlier, book days they don't want, and drop them off the reservation at 11 months.

How is this better again?

 

[jdg345]

Assuming this policy will cut down on DBD calls and forced mid trip moves… this might be a good thing for the majority of DVC owners.

If this cuts down on calls and drops dues, then that is one positive of the new system -- I agree. But it's also possible that this new system only complicates things and creates additional volumes.

The current system was a drain on MS, mousekeeping, and dues. Given the ever growing size of DVC, the current system had to change in some form; it was not sustainable or cost effective.

I haven't seen any numbers on this. As membership grows, so do the overall dues.

Just consider the common trip where a member calls DBD and then is forced move mid trip: They’re certainly not happy about needing to change rooms. Folks waiting for MS are not happy. And now Mousekeeping needs to ready two rooms instead of one. Not to mention the poor soul waiting in the lobby at 4:00 pm for their room….

Do we know this is the case? I think we can all agree that this will mostly affect specialty categories, right? If so, the members who are moving would likely complain more if they couldn't get their category at all versus having to move. They chose to move, as they likely could have booked elsewhere if they chose a different resort/room/category for LOS. Some people do move on purpose.

The flexibility of DVC has a tangible cost throughout the system from MS to Mousekeeping and I’m not convinced that reigning in the flexibility a tad bit is all bad.

This depends on dollars and cents ... why not leave it up to the membership and say, "We need to raise dues by X to maintain this flexibility"? I wonder how many people would be adverse to raising dues a few cents to get an online booking system in place. That would surely reduce calls to MS.

I know we love to bash Disney for putting cost above member satisfaction, but maybe they are right this time. I’m sure that ideally Disney would love to go to a 7 day Saturday-Saturday stay (just imagine the cost savings).

I don't know that DVC would sell as well if they did that. They'd have to chop up all their marketing materials as well that tout the flexibility of the system. Do we know what the cost would have been to leave things along? Do we know how much it is costing us to change things? We're all paying for 'Free Internet', aren't we? Do the majority of members use it?

 

[jarestel]

Let's also not forget that instead of people mentioning DBD as an approach, people will now just mention folks should call earlier, book days they don't want, and drop them off the reservation at 11 months.

If this becomes widespread, then the next "enhancement" we may be likely to see is to make every change to a reservation a total cancellation that requires rebooking. This would be an excellent way to bring that about. However, I don't think most folks want to see that happen, so you know the old saying... "Be careful what you wish for"...

 

[tjkraz]

That said, let's take some random 'out of the air' numbers:
Chances to Book Partial Stay under DBD: 1:10
Chances to Book Full Stay under DBD: 1:50
Chances to Book Full Stay Under New System: 1:100

Is there any mathematical basis for these random numbers?

I don't see how getting multiple days via DBD with high demand could possibly be easier than getting it in one phone call under the new. Sure there will be fewer rooms available at the first call under the new system, but then the rest of the desired days are guaranteed.

Day One supply may be higher under DBD, but you're competing with people who want to arrive the same day AND those who are continuing vacations from the night before.

 

[tjkraz]

That's not necessarily the case. There are people 'in the middle' that may not have been advantaged/disadvantaged under the old system who are now being disadvantaged. We cannot assume that just because 5 people are getting an advantage now, that 5 different people are being disadvantaged. It's not necessarily a zero sum game.

Nor do we have any reason to believe that people think switching resorts multiple times makes for a "magical" Disney vacation.

These are just assumptions though. Do we know how many of those people calling DBD before aren't just going to walk their reservation a week or more in advance?

Is there any reason to believe that people will "walk" reservations in greater numbers than those currently booking day-by-day?

Bookworm found a few posts were people did not get what they wanted DBD, but I am sure you can find more posts advocating DBD than those that failed DBD. How many posts can we find where people were unable at 11 months of departure? I'm sure there are some there to consider. Let's also not forget that instead of people mentioning DBD as an approach, people will now just mention folks should call earlier, book days they don't want, and drop them off the reservation at 11 months.

How is this better again?

How is it better? If we can eliminate all of the baseless FUD from people's minds, most will make one phone call (instead of 5 or 6) and still get exactly what they want.

People booking low-supply room classes will either be guaranteed their entire trip duration in their first choice of accommodation, or they will be given a fair chance to select another.

Member dues will no longer have to subsidize thousands of unnecessary DBD bookings, nor the excess room cleaning fees that go along with people who "choose" to move from one room to the next to the next.

DBD bookings may be "fairer" (in some minds) to those booking the smaller room classes, but IMO the new system serves the greater good. And there is ample evidence to suggest that success levels under the new system will be much higher than this FUD-filled thread portrays.

 

[DVC92]

I fail to understand why anyone is in favor of the new system unless you are a proponent of eliminating DBD booking. The new system is much more restrictive than the old one. Booking on the first day of your stay adds nothing.

For example, under the new system, a member calls on the 1st of the month and reserves days 1-7. Member 2 calls on the 3rd of the month for days 3-10, but the room is booked. Under the old system, member 1 calls on the 7th and books days 1-7, while member 2 calls on the 10th and again can't reserve days 3-10. Nothing has changed. You can still make your entire booking with one call if it is available.

What has changed is that DBD is no longer available for the difficult ressies and a member can no longer book their entire vacation in one call (i.e., stays of greater than 7 days).

Unless this change is saving DVC $$$$, there is no other reason for it, and if this is the situation, DVC will not return to the old system.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

That said, let's take some random 'out of the air' numbers:
Chances to Book Partial Stay under DBD: 1:10
Chances to Book Full Stay under DBD: 1:50
Chances to Book Full Stay Under New System: 1:100

Why would you pick a "random" scenario that has no factual basis? Let's not start throwing around "random" statistics for individual gain. All that does is skew perception.

 

[jdg345]

If this becomes widespread, then the next "enhancement" we may be likely to see is to make every change to a reservation a total cancellation that requires rebooking. This would be an excellent way to bring that about. However, I don't think most folks want to see that happen, so you know the old saying... "Be careful what you wish for"...

Well, it's certainly within the rules ...

 

[jdg345]

Is there any mathematical basis for these random numbers?

Nope, but I stated that in the original post.

I don't see how getting multiple days via DBD with high demand could possibly be easier than getting it in one phone call under the new. Sure there will be fewer rooms available at the first call under the new system, but then the rest of the desired days are guaranteed.

Exactly! Let's say I want (7) days with the old system, so I call DBD. The chances of me getting *some* of those 7 days are higher than me getting the full (7) days with the new system. With the old sytem, I have (7) chances with full inventory available every morning. With the new system, I have one chance with all inventory at best, and more realisitically a reduced inventory I'm competing for,

Day One supply may be higher under DBD, but you're competing with people who want to arrive the same day AND those who are continuing vacations from the night before.

And with the new system, I'm still competing with those who arrived up to a week before, not to mention competing with those that might not really want those dates at all and are just walking. On Day-1, there might already be 0 supply.

 

[waltfan1957]

If this becomes widespread, then the next "enhancement" we may be likely to see is to make every change to a reservation a total cancellation that requires rebooking. This would be an excellent way to bring that about. However, I don't think most folks want to see that happen, so you know the old saying... "Be careful what you wish for"...

but that would be fair and after all thats what all you pro enhancement members seem to want fairness but only under your terms!

 

[maminnie]

I'm back!!!! Here I go again.

I dug through my personal documents and found my "Product Understanding Checklist" for one of my DVC contracts.

Here is what it said:

"Reservations are subject to availability on a first-come, first-serve basis. Special preferences are noted but they cannot be guaranteed. You can reserve up to 11 months in advance of your check-out date to use your Vacation Points at your Home Resort. You can reserve up to 7 months in advance of your check-out date to stay at other DVC resorts." (By the way 11 months and 7 months are in BOLD print.)

No where does it say that I cannot extend my reservation day by day thereby modifying my check-out date. Also according to what is posted on the DVC member site it reads "The previous policy required Members to call daily at the beginning of their booking window, piecing together their reservation one night at a time." Obviously day by day was an accepted and sanctioned policy that has been used for many many years.

Under the old system I knew if I called day by day I would likely be successful for a busy week. Everyone had the same opportunity as I did and the chips would fall where they way. In over 10 years I have had good success with the day by day system at both the 11 month and 7 month window. Now it is only a guess and I feel pretty confident that I will now have to start moving mid-week as I own two contracts/resorts and I never have had to do this before.

Yes Disney can change things, but I WOULD NOT have bought DVC if it was not flexible and resembled a traditional timeshare company as it is starting to do. I did not give those other timeshare companies thousands and thousands of dollars.

I have rationally tried to give examples of members who MAY be hurt by this including myself. There are those of you who feel that this is ok and I guess I have to respect that and move on. But my guess is that the vast majority of those happy about the new system either travel Friday/Friday, Saturday/Saturday, have enough points to book weekends, have enough points to walk their reservation, travel during less busy times, have vacation flexibility, have other vacation options but DVC, do not have a profession that limits when they can travel, and maybe even some of you are speculative renters, etc.

Congratulations to all the members that this new reservation policy works out for and who are the true "winners". But remember you have won at the expense of others who previously were using the reservation system that truly was more fair to all and did not give members access to inventory prior to 11 and 7 months simply because they have an earlier check-in date then another member.

Wishing you all the best.

Respectfully,
maminnie