New DVC . . . .saw this today . . . . .

[yitbos96bb]

At some point you cannibalize your own market. Those who would pay $300+ a night at the POLY -buy into DVC and then no longer stay or pay that much for staying at the Poly...you gain DVC members but lose Poly paying guests and you spend quite a bit to "capture" a market you already had...

On the flip side, you just sold a GUARENTEED amount of rooms for the next 50 years. Besides look at Boardwalk, Beach Club and Wilderness Lodge... its not like those have been hurt by DVC. Poly will be just as filled with a DVC or without.

 

[CarnotaurDad]

The other flip side (can there be two flip sides?) is that how many extra Disney vacations are coming their way because of the DVC points?

I guarantee there is no way I would have ever thought about making four Disney vacations in a year if we weren't DVC members. That's extra money in their coffers they wouldn't have had otherwise in addition to my buy in.

 

[jennz]

I would agree that there would be some cannibalization going on but I wonder what the actual % is? I'm not sure it's the same market...most DVC members (of which I am one) are looking for home-away-from-home conviences like the kitchen, washer/dryer and more space while the Poly guests are willing to pay more to be "taken care of" - a vacation is when you don't have to cook, make your own bed, etc. Just MHO.

 

[Mickmse2002]

How far away is SSR from selling out?

 

[doombuggy]

My pal 1000th happy Haunt is always telling the cast at the DVC kiosks to "stop telling the secret!" I always find this funny.

1000th Happy haunt, you need to post to this thread and tell everyone what you heard while in DL for New Years.

 

[1000th happy haunt]

Here goes. I stopped at a DVC kiosk in Disneyland in late December. The CM there indicated to me that the next DVC resort built would be in Hawaii. He did tell me that eventually all the deluxe hotels at WDW would have a DVC associated with them, and that a DVC would also be built in Anaheim, but it would not be for several years.

Of course, this is all speculation and rumor on the CMs part.

I posted a poll on the DVC boards about which (hypothetical) new DVC resort would make current owners add points, and the Poly was in the lead with AKL a close second.

 

[PKS44]

On the flip side, you just sold a GUARENTEED amount of rooms for the next 50 years. Besides look at Boardwalk, Beach Club and Wilderness Lodge... its not like those have been hurt by DVC. Poly will be just as filled with a DVC or without.

Do we know this? I am not sure at what point the DVC market overlaps the resort room market..I agree with this point about getting the money in hand NOW--but there is a cost --they are not just selling rooms at an already standing hotel --a new building has to be built...that capital expenditure has to be recouped AND you have to hope that it does not draw off too much of your own going revenue stream from "resort" (as opposed to DVC) guests....it definitely has to be something to consider for them....I hope management does not look at DVC the same way ABC looked at Who Wants to be a Millionaire--you know--"if once a week draws big ratings let's put it on 5 times a week and get 5 times the ratings!" DVC has been a Great thing for Disney but there has to be a limit --I have no idea where that limit is--the boomers have lots of money and free time coming to them for vacations so it makes sense for Disney to look into Hawaii and other non-kid centered areas for expanding their timeshare--I note the new Adventures by Disney vacation franchise has several itineraries that are ADULTS ONLY...this is very intriguing and telling about how they are trying to expand their market.

 

[Crazy Hakim]

Yesterday I had somebody who saw this sign think that Bonnet Creek was a NEW Disney Resort.

 

[yitbos96bb]

Do we know this? I am not sure at what point the DVC market overlaps the resort room market..I agree with this point about getting the money in hand NOW--but there is a cost --they are not just selling rooms at an already standing hotel --a new building has to be built...that capital expenditure has to be recouped AND you have to hope that it does not draw off too much of your own going revenue stream from "resort" (as opposed to DVC) guests....it definitely has to be something to consider for them....I hope management does not look at DVC the same way ABC looked at Who Wants to be a Millionaire--you know--"if once a week draws big ratings let's put it on 5 times a week and get 5 times the ratings!" DVC has been a Great thing for Disney but there has to be a limit --I have no idea where that limit is--the boomers have lots of money and free time coming to them for vacations so it makes sense for Disney to look into Hawaii and other non-kid centered areas for expanding their timeshare--I note the new Adventures by Disney vacation franchise has several itineraries that are ADULTS ONLY...this is very intriguing and telling about how they are trying to expand their market.

I have yet to hear of BC, BW, and WL having tons of empty rooms at any point of the year so again I see no sign of DVC hurting the resorts. Also remember that many DVCers travel during the slow seasons, vs the crowded seasons... so it is a way to increase park attendance in the times when you may not get as many guests. Plus the bonus of DVC is 1) you will get people who own who won't use their points, so that is like free money to Disney, 2) many people don't cook while on vacation (we are one of them) so you have more money being spent on property by these people.

I would also point out one other thing... If the business wasn't profitable or was hurting the hotel sales, would Disney do it? Would all these other timeshares do it who have time shares almost next too regular hotels? Ultimately, you are talking about selling to two different crowds of consumers. You have a little overlap, but i am betting the benefits far outweigh the little amount of overlap there is. Afterall, guarenteed money is better that projected moneys... another 9/11 happens, Disney already has the DVC money... but the other consumers who stay away they don't have... I still think 9/11 and the slump in the the tourism industry that followed is one of the motivating factors behind Disney's improved VERY agressive approach to DVC. They realize the DVC people will be able to support them in the lean times.

 

[yitbos96bb]

Here goes. I stopped at a DVC kiosk in Disneyland in late December. The CM there indicated to me that the next DVC resort built would be in Hawaii. He did tell me that eventually all the deluxe hotels at WDW would have a DVC associated with them, and that a DVC would also be built in Anaheim, but it would not be for several years.

Of course, this is all speculation and rumor on the CMs part.

I posted a poll on the DVC boards about which (hypothetical) new DVC resort would make current owners add points, and the Poly was in the lead with AKL a close second.

AKL would be sweet... especially since the room is there to build... I think more so than any other existing structure. Poly is still my top choice, but I would LOVE an AKL DVC.

Of course all that is speculation, but it makes logical sense... I think of all the ones mentioned the LEAST likely is Hawaii (well Vegas actually but then Hawaii... although Vegas could be done interesting... now that they have eschewed the Family advertising and gone back to Sin City, Disney might be able to really fill a small niche in Vegas... Like Circus Circus, but not crappy and probably without the casino... As long as they are semi close to the big boys on the strip, they could do a Polo Towers like place with a kids itenary liek the cruise lines so that Mom and Dad can go lose their college fund) but I still see it as a 50/50 shot (if that makes sense). Disneyland to me would be the most likely, followed by DVCs at all the Asian Parks... my guess is it will be 1 resort at these like an SSR or OKW... maybe a Manhattan flavored resort or Hollywood at the asian places...

The DVC at the Deluxe makes sense as well and I believe we will see it. I think the value and moderates will be left as is; and we will probably see a new Value resort sometime in next 5 years.

How would people feel about an Asian themed hotel at Disney? Maybe a Tokyo gardens kind of thing?

 

[DancingBear]

How would people feel about an Asian themed hotel at Disney? Maybe a Tokyo gardens kind of thing?

Well the Asian Resort, mostly what I would call Thai in appearance, was the original concept for the space where Grand Floridian now resides.

 

[mochabean]

Besides look at Boardwalk, Beach Club and Wilderness Lodge... its not like those have been hurt by DVC. Poly will be just as filled with a DVC or without.

I agree with this point. The Poly would be near capacity as it is now even if it was twice as big. The demand is there. In fact, this reason is probably why they would build at CR or Poly before AKL. CR and Poly will remain near capacity even with a DVC, while AKL is not always near capacity now.

 

[dbm20th]

They can also charge more per point with Poly then any other DVC they have built so far. That is the olny reason they would do it. And people will pay it

 

[MJMcBride]

There's nothing like the Poly in May.

 

[mitros]

Well the Asian Resort, mostly what I would call Thai in appearance, was the original concept for the space where Grand Floridian now resides.

That's correct, and there is also a spot along the monorail that they tried to build another resort, and every time they tried to sink pilings for the footings, they kept sinking into the muck. Haven't heard if they were able to fix that problem. Apparentley there is some sort of swampy area there {sinkhole?} and perhaps that's why they have not been able to put another resort on the monorail all this time.

 

[doombuggy]

Do we know this? I am not sure at what point the DVC market overlaps the resort room market..I agree with this point about getting the money in hand NOW--but there is a cost --they are not just selling rooms at an already standing hotel --a new building has to be built...that capital expenditure has to be recouped AND you have to hope that it does not draw off too much of your own going revenue stream from "resort" (as opposed to DVC) guests....

I agree with you PKS44, especially the draw part. I saw this when I worked at TDS back in PA. The second store I worked at was built in 1990. In 1998 or 1999 another TDS was opened a few miles away at another mall. We could tell right away that we lost guest to that other store. Same thing happened in 2000 when another store opened a few miles away in another direction (and I transferred there, since it was closer to my FT job ). But the point I am trying to make is I hope there isn't over kill. When 1000th Happy Haunt told me what she heard at DL, I thought it made sense to have a Disney resort somewhere else (such as Hilton head or Vero) instead of another one here. Just my thoughts...

 

[yitbos96bb]

I agree with you PKS44, especially the draw part. I saw this when I worked at TDS back in PA. The second store I worked at was built in 1990. In 1998 or 1999 another TDS was opened a few miles away at another mall. We could tell right away that we lost guest to that other store. Same thing happened in 2000 when another store opened a few miles away in another direction (and I transferred there, since it was closer to my FT job ). But the point I am trying to make is I hope there isn't over kill. When 1000th Happy Haunt told me what she heard at DL, I thought it made sense to have a Disney resort somewhere else (such as Hilton head or Vero) instead of another one here. Just my thoughts...

Just remember Disney's other goal... to steal people from the Kissimmee hotels and the other Orlando timeshares. Hence why I think there will be another All Star/Pop type hotel as well as additional DVCs. The market is there... Many people who always go Poly will not go DVC because they don't want to be locked into disney or put out that big of a committment up front (even though it is a huge value long term.) Some are just anti-timeshare and others want full service... maid, etc.

A

 

[PinkTink63]

I would agree that there would be some cannibalization going on but I wonder what the actual % is? I'm not sure it's the same market...most DVC members (of which I am one) are looking for home-away-from-home conviences like the kitchen, washer/dryer and more space while the Poly guests are willing to pay more to be "taken care of" - a vacation is when you don't have to cook, make your own bed, etc. Just MHO.

I agree with you. I don't want to use my points for the Poly unless it was a DVC resort. Yet, there would still be people that don't own DVC that want to stay at the Poly.
Stephanie

 

[tor]

At some point you cannibalize your own market. Those who would pay $300+ a night at the POLY -buy into DVC and then no longer stay or pay that much for staying at the Poly...you gain DVC members but lose Poly paying guests and you spend quite a bit to "capture" a market you already had...

I see this a lot about cannabalizing their own market out the DIS if this was the case why is there more than one hotel in all of disney why didn't they cannabalize each other to death??? Maybe it is not a zero sum game with each new hotel/ride/attraction you attract new customers there are several billion people on this planet and they haven't all been to disney yet.
As far as disney spending alot for a market they have already look at OKW for example at the time they were built the real estate market in florida they would have sold for approx $80,000 a piece yet disney sold them for approx $7,500 a week and you only keep it for fifty years thats $390,000 a condo and you don't get to keep it. I wish I could sell my house a $310,000 over market and get it back in 50 years.

 

[PKS44]

I see this a lot about cannabalizing their own market out the DIS if this was the case why is there more than one hotel in all of disney why didn't they cannabalize each other to death??? Maybe it is not a zero sum game with each new hotel/ride/attraction you attract new customers there are several billion people on this planet and they haven't all been to disney yet.
As far as disney spending alot for a market they have already look at OKW for example at the time they were built the real estate market in florida they would have sold for approx $80,000 a piece yet disney sold them for approx $7,500 a week and you only keep it for fifty years thats $390,000 a condo and you don't get to keep it. I wish I could sell my house a $310,000 over market and get it back in 50 years.

First of all I believe I said "At some point you cannibalize your own market"--so the answer to your questions is that the point may not have been reached.

While you may attract new guests, "At some point you cannibalize your own market"--there has to be som element of this..

As to your calculation...the point is not how much over market the place sells as Disney was never going to sell anything...it is how much money do you have to lay out NOW to get money back...return on investment...It costs money to build DVC--it brings money in--but how much? how fast? and from where? Is it all new revenue streams? Definitely not....the vast majority of DVC buyers are almost certainly people who were already staying at Disney hotels before DVC --so there is no question that that portion of the money you get is offset from the revenue lost from the resort stays....it is NOT a simple just-keep-building-DVC's-and-you-will-keep-making-money deal.