New DVC Resorts?

[tjkraz]

If by "new" you mean an actual new construction, you won't find much in DVC outside RIV and arguably VGF2. The other DVC projects, CCV, VGF2, Poly, were flips of undesirable aging hotel rooms. This is a strategy that I can see continuing, hopefully Yacht Club.

3 of the last 4 DVC projects were new construction: Riviera, Disneyland Hotel and Polynesian 2. Reflections was new construction until sidelined by the pandemic.

Not really sure what makes something an "undesirable aging hotel room." Identical accommodations continue to operate as hotel rooms at the Poly, GF and WL, with wholesale refurbishments occurring every few years to keep them in line with expected guest standards.

Every DVC sale eats into the market for WDW Deluxe Hotel rooms to some extent. And WDW increased its inventory with 100+ high-end rooms in Galactic Starcruiser. Not every WDW deluxe hotel room is suitable for DVC conversion. They'll continue with a combination of both approaches as projects are identified which meet the needs of both DVC and the hotel.

 

[RoseGold]

3 of the last 4 DVC projects were new construction: Riviera, Disneyland Hotel and Polynesian 2. Reflections was new construction until sidelined by the pandemic.

3 out of those 4 do not exist yet and may never exist, though DL Tower is really coming along! Disney and DVC in particular has canceled many announced projects. Of recent DVC projects that actually happened, only RIV was new construction. The rest were flips of old buildings.

 

[tjkraz]

3 out of those 4 do not exist yet and may never exist, though DL Tower is really coming along! Disney and DVC in particular has canceled many announced projects. Of recent DVC projects that actually happened, only RIV was new construction. The rest were flips of old buildings.

The only DVC project ever cancelled after physical construction had begun was Reflections. And the reason for the cancellation had more to do with the 600 new deluxe hotel rooms which Disney became reluctant to add in the heat of a pandemic.

DVC will continue to require additional inventory and new construction is part of the plan. Including the two resorts they are building right now.

 

[RoseGold]

The only DVC project ever cancelled after physical construction had begun was Reflections. And the reason for the cancellation had more to do with the 600 new deluxe hotel rooms which Disney became reluctant to add in the heat of a pandemic.

DVC canceled a whole lot. NYC, Colorado, well before Covid. Disney did as well, like the Epcot on-site hotel. Disney has a long history of canceling projects. Even the original cash hotels often are very far from what was promised.

DVC also has a history of cheap flips of old buildings. So, these projects are "new," but the buildings aren't. Poly1 and CCV and VGF2 are all in that category. Reality is DVC has a lot of very old buildings and some are not looking great.

 

[tjkraz]

DVC canceled a whole lot. NYC, Colorado, well before Covid. Disney did as well, like the Epcot on-site hotel. Disney has a long history of canceling projects. Even the original cash hotels often are very far from what was promised.

Neither NYC nor Colorado were ever announced as projects by DVC, much less any construction begun. Aside from Reflections, the only project DVC ever announced and later cancelled was Eagle Pines. No construction had begun, and it was ultimately derailed by the post-9/11 travel slowdown when focus shifted to repurposing Disney Institute as Saratoga Springs. About 10 years ago Disney secured an option on some land outside of DC which they never developed. They acknowledged the land option but DVC was never formally attached and it didn't come close to construction.

It would take nothing less than a global pandemic-type event for Disneyland Hotel and Polynesian to be cancelled. Unless you're predicting something of that scale, this discussion is silly. DVC *IS* investing in new construction. Right now.

And unlike Reflections, both of the new projects are stand-alone DVC facilities. DVC needs points in the pipeline. They will be built.

DVC also has a history of cheap flips of old buildings. So, these projects are "new," but the buildings aren't. Poly1 and CCV and VGF2 are all in that category. Reality is DVC has a lot of very old buildings and some are not looking great.

They've converted rooms at exactly 4 locations: Jambo house, Polynesian, Wilderness Lodge and Grand Floridian. The oldest are DVC Polynesian longhouses at 37 years, but even those received a tear-down-to-the-studs renovation 8 years ago and additional updates in 2021.

 

[RoseGold]

Some were new, like Boardwalk, which is certainly not looking new now. I thought Beach Club was a flip too? Or they built an extra wing with bad views?

I can see new future construction for DVC, over time, but in a moderate-ish location on the Skyliner, like RIV. Maybe BLT2 if we are lucky. But I think that's a discussion years out and a cheap flip is more likely after Poly2. Come on Yacht Club!

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

DVC needs points in the pipeline. They will be built.

I've appreciated your grounded perspective and the information on DVC projects that you've shared on this thread! I went down a rabbit hole looking up Eagle Pines and some of the other possible sites that never happened. Good to know that once announced and construction begins, it takes a lot for Disney to cancel and change course. It's also clear to that DVC has a lot of shelved ideas they can draw on for new projects in the future, even if only at WDW.

 

[RoseGold]

Good to know that once announced and construction begins, it takes a lot for Disney to cancel and change course.

Both Reflections and the Epcot on-site hotel had permits pulled and they were announced. So they were obviously completely planned out.

DVC may have finally reached saturation, no APs probably hasn't helped. DVC is still holding the bag on half of the Aulani and RIV points, and those were both massive resorts. DVC can't keep up a fast construction pace, at least with current demand levels. Sure, there will be new stuff over time, but for now Poly2 is a really exciting change IMO.

 

[kilik64]

They actually got pretty well into the start of Reflections before scrapping it. First part of the project and only thing actually completed was the new Tri Circle D Ranch that was built. They had to build that first to move all of that from the area that Reflections was going in. They then did all the ground work and even poured footers before they halted construction.

Its also more than a little resemblance that Poly2 has with the artwork that was put out for Reflections. Why they decided to put Reflections next to Poly instead is most likely based on the fact that Poly2 is dvc only and reflections was going to be bigger a mixed hotel and dvc.

 

[tjkraz]

Both Reflections and the Epcot on-site hotel had permits pulled and they were announced. So they were obviously completely planned out.

An EPCOT hotel was never announced.

Yes, Disney plans and permits projects which are never completed. But if you're still trying to tie this back to the idea that Poly 2 and Disneyland Hotel DVCs are currently at risk, the only precedent is Reflections. And it took a large hotel component + global pandemic for that project to get scrapped. There is no hotel component in either DVC, and hopefully no new pandemic.

DVC may have finally reached saturation, no APs probably hasn't helped. DVC is still holding the bag on half of the Aulani and RIV points, and those were both massive resorts. DVC can't keep up a fast construction pace, at least with current demand levels. Sure, there will be new stuff over time, but for now Poly2 is a really exciting change IMO.

Some facts:

From May - September 2018, DVC averaged 173k points per month.
From May - September 2022, after the VGF launch bump had subsided, DVC averaged 164k points per month.
(May - September 2019 was actually better on the strength of early Riviera sales)

No, DVC has not reached saturation. They could easily boost sales with better incentives, but apparently they're comfortable with the current pace.

Yes, they have points left to sell in both Riviera and Aulani. That didn't stop them from approving Disneyland Hotel or Poly 2, both of which could have been hotel room conversions if Disney was only interested in "cheap flips of old buildings."

 

[Jwaire]

Losing Eagle Pines for Golden Oak was just sad. We could have had our own Mar-a-la-go at Disney World.

https://progresscityusa.com/2010/12/15/neverworlds-disneys-vacation-club-and-resort-at-eagle-pines/

 

[RoseGold]

Yes, they have points left to sell in both Riviera and Aulani. That didn't stop them from approving Disneyland Hotel or Poly 2, both of which could have been hotel room conversions if Disney was only interested in "cheap flips of old buildings."

I think we are saying the same thing. I do think Poly2 will happen, though I think it's way too early to call that certain. It may or may not have resale restrictions.

Poly2 is a huge project. Assuming it happens, and that VGF2 is sold out by then, and DL Tower is an easy sell, DVC will then have oodles of RIV/Aulani points, plus a giant new building to sell. That's a lot. A whole lot. I can't see DVC building more giant projects right after that. So, keeping the 2-ish year timeframe, they could just do a small, cheap flip to have something going on, like VGF2 did. I think new construction is years out after Poly2.

 

[RoseGold]

September 2018, DVC averaged 173k points per month.

Aulani is 11.5M points, RIV is about 9, I think. Both are half-ish sold. 173K points/month won't get you far on that much bag-holding, especially with new projects adding more points to the mix.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

Both Reflections and the Epcot on-site hotel had permits pulled and they were announced. So they were obviously completely planned out.

DVC may have finally reached saturation, no APs probably hasn't helped. DVC is still holding the bag on half of the Aulani and RIV points, and those were both massive resorts. DVC can't keep up a fast construction pace, at least with current demand levels. Sure, there will be new stuff over time, but for now Poly2 is a really exciting change IMO.

We know why Reflections was cancelled, that's why I said "it takes a lot." The Epcot-site (DVC West) didn't seem to have been announced and was very early stage. If it had been announced, we would at least have some concept art.

I also thing Poly2 is exciting, but I don't see it as a cheap flip. I think that predicting that there won't be new construction after Poly2 is silly because 1. RVA seems to be selling well enough. 2. Along with VGF2 and CCV there's been plenty of new construction (Poly2 counts imo), so how are we to predict which way they'll go?

BTW, I also think YC would be exciting.

 

[havoc315]

Thanks! So Aulani, Riviera, and Grand Floridian count as "new" with "new" rules ... and nothing on the horizon for a long time.

No, only Riviera and the Disneyland tower follow the new rules. (we don't know about the DL tower yet, but that is strongly anticipated).
Poly tower -- Unknown.

And after that -- what's a long time? Disney has been building new DVC resorts every 3-5 years. But we only learn the plans about 2-3 years in advance.
So Poly in 2024 -- we don't know whether it will be new rules or not.
Then very likely, another new resort sometime between 2027 and 2030ish. And by 2042, the majority of resorts will operate under the "new" rules.

 

[havoc315]

We know why Reflections was cancelled, that's why I said "it takes a lot." The Epcot-site (DVC West) didn't seem to have been announced and was very early stage. If it had been announced, we would at least have some concept art.

I also thing Poly2 is exciting, but I don't see it as a cheap flip. I think that predicting that there won't be new construction after Poly2 is silly because 1. RVA seems to be selling well enough. 2. Along with VGF2 and CCV there's been plenty of new construction (Poly2 counts imo), so how are we to predict which way they'll go?

BTW, I also think YC would be exciting.

Disney wants to be constantly selling DVC on an ongoing basis. It doesn't mean they will build a new resort every 2-3 years. But it also means it is unlikely that they would go 10 years without any new construction. They have been pretty regularly at every 2-3 years ever since AKV.
So sure.. maybe it slows down. Maybe it becomes every 4-6 years instead of every 2-3. But they aren't going to just stop building.
There will be at least 3-4 new DVC properties between now and 2042... and then they get to start flipping the 2042 resorts.

Some possibilities -- Yet another resort at Disneyland if the new tower proves popular.
Reviving plans for a resort within Epcot..
A second Contemporary location resort, with the second garden building being converted to DVC..
Eventually, revive the Reflections site..

 

[RoseGold]

Some possibilities -- Yet another resort at Disneyland if the new tower proves popular.

Disney had been trying to get a second DL DVC for years and never got it past the local politics. They wanted to be selling as VGC kept going up and up. This is one was hard to pull off, I don't see anything like this happening for a long time.

Building in CA isn't like building in FL, at least building in FL for Disney.

A path I could see, but really wouldn't like, is another FL beach resort. To me, this would be diluting the points, like Aulani. But it is something I can see Disney doing, and something that would be close enough to their wheelhouse.

 

[SL6827]

Could they build a new building for a YC DVC or would it have to be a room conversion from the resort?

 

[havoc315]

Could they build a new building for a YC DVC or would it have to be a room conversion from the resort?

Could be either. But if it was just a partial room conversion, it would be a pretty small resort.
Honestly, I think they are more likely to put off doing anything at YC/BC until 2042... and then really do major major stuff to the property.

 

[RoseGold]

Could they build a new building for a YC DVC or would it have to be a room conversion from the resort?

There is room to build there. Also, YC is an old building with a lot of rooms with lousy views. They could just take over a wing and slap some paint on it.