I honestly don't even understand what you are trying to say. I''m not being snarky, just can't figure it out.
First timers. They aren't going to know how stimulated or exhausted them or their children will be, hence they're not going to plan out the meals ideally. Add to that, the fact that they're less likely to know the exclusions are in place, and they're going to get hit more than veterans.
Unexpected stuff. Since the time is 24 hours, there are often times things just happen within the same day as an ADR. Oversleeping happens, kids get overstimulated, "just not hungry", or what-not. Without being able to cancel the same day, these people will also be hit with the charge.
For example, back over at Yachtsman and I figure out I'm not hungry. Right now, I can call that day and cancel without any issue. Under the upcoming policy, even if I call several hours ahead of time, I cannot. Add to that, the fact that even if I show up, but refuse to order anything (see an earlier example here) because I am not hungry, I could still be charged as a No Show and you should start to see why my desire to make signature ADRs start to wane.
Keep in mind that, as it sits now, the policy is not ONLY for those that don't show up, but also for those that cancel the same day. So if I wake up in the morning with my back hurting and decide to sleep it off some, I'm out $10 for breakfast, whether I call or not. So what's the impetus to call?
Now, if I were an ADR hoarder (which I'm not, even though some make me out to be

), I've already found a very simple way around this whole thing. I won't go into detail, but suffice to say, it's VERY easy and pretty intuitive. This means that I can still double, triple, multi-book to my heart's content, with total impunity from these charges. Even without that simple work around, I can still hoard ADRs and not get charged if I simply cancel the day before.
So, for those that do book all the extra meals, they can still easily keep doing what they're doing. For those where the unexpected comes up, they're now penalized for those happenings.
Hence, it punishes the first timers (who lack knowledge and/or experience) and those with good intentions that (for whatever reason) something comes up, but leaves the problem people alone.
The stopping from going altogether is an extrapolation of this, since they're going to be charged extra for good intentions, they may as well not go in the first place. Of course, the first timers would less likely know this, and would more likely just not return.
TBH, I'm already considering dropping my normal 10 day DxDDP trips in favor of a 5-6 day, OOP trip, and the signature thing does factor into this decision. While I am theorizing and extrapolating some, it IS being factored into my future trip plans already.
And for those thinking that they'll suddenly get walk-ups or 24 hour notice ADRs, I wouldn't get my hopes up. Even getting 'Ohana at 160 days out is not likely to be any easier with this in place. I could be wrong, and if so, I'll gladly admit it, but I wouldn't get too excited just yet.